Oddo BHF Voices Concerns Over Currency Impact and Weaker Flu Season for bioMérieux
bioMérieux (-1.38%, at 96.45 euros) is losing ground after Oddo BHF decided to lower its price target for the stock from 126 to 100 euros, while maintaining an Outperform rating.
To justify this decision, analysts identified two bearish factors: currency effects and a weaker flu season compared to 2025, both of which are expected to impact fourth-quarter results.
The financial group believes the decline of the dollar will have an effect, given that billings in the US currency accounted for 46% of the total in 2024. Accordingly, analysts updated their forecasts by revising assumptions for the euro/dollar exchange rate, particularly for BioFire, a diagnostic technology that enables rapid identification of infectious agents.
Furthermore, the 2025 flu season is less significant than in 2024. "In Q1 2025, the flu season led to a high level of growth," the analysts note, which should result in an unfavorable base effect.
As a result, their consolidated EBIT target for the full year 2026 has been lowered from 810 to 780 million euros, and the currency impact could amount to between 40 and 50 million euros.
At the same time, Oddo BHF is forecasting fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of around 1.08 billion euros, compared to 1.109 billion euros a year earlier.
bioMérieux designs, develops, produces, and sells systems used in clinical practice to diagnose infectious diseases (including HIV, tuberculosis, and respiratory infections), cancers, and cardiovascular pathologies based on a biological sample (blood, saliva, urine, etc.). Net sales break down by sector of application as follows:
- medical applications (84.8%): in industry, microbiological testing of samples from finished products, materials during the manufacturing process, or the environment, primarily in the food-processing, pharmaceutical, and cosmetics sectors;
- industrial applications (15.2%).
The group's diagnostic systems consist of three elements with related services: reagents, instruments (or platforms or analyzers), software, and services.
Net sales are distributed geographically as follows: Europe/Middle East/Africa (31.9%), North America (45%), Asia/Pacific (16,5%) and Latin America (6.6%).
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