In recent days, the stock has been shunned following the announcement of a decline in birth rates in China. On Monday, Jefferies reported that China's National Bureau of Statistics had announced 7.9 million births in 2025, compared to 9.5 million in 2024. As a result, the American investment bank revised its estimate for organic growth in the Specialized Nutrition segment for China down from 10% to 8%. At the group level, the impact on organic sales growth would be 0.2 percentage points.

Recall in Singapore

Another factor added to the situation yesterday: a statement from Singaporean authorities, dated January 17, regarding the recall of two batches of infant formula. The first batch involves Nestlé's NAN H1 Supreme Pro produced in Switzerland, and the second is Danone's Dumex Dulac made in Thailand.

The Singapore Food Agency (SFA) detected traces of cereulide toxin, which causes nausea and vomiting, in these two batches that reportedly used the same ingredient from the same source. The recall was ordered as a precaution while further investigations continue.

After discussions with Danone, Oddo BHF learned from the group that the Dumex product is considered safe following internal tests and meets health standards. Furthermore, the plant in Thailand shows no anomalies and none of the product is destined for China; the Dumex product in question is exclusively reserved for the Singapore market. Following these exchanges, Oddo BHF analysts believe "that this recall—whose media coverage is the main cause of the stock drop—appears to be an isolated case with, in principle, zero risk of impact on China; infant formula in China accounts for 7 to 8% of revenue and nearly double that in terms of EBIT."

Lactalis Recall

Adding to the prevailing panic, yesterday Lactalis Nutrition Santé initiated a voluntary recall of six batches of its Picot infant formula due to the presence of cereulide in an ingredient (omega 6 ARA) supplied by an international provider. The recall affects France but, more importantly, a total of 18 countries worldwide, according to Oddo BHF.

Analysts at the financial group, like Lactalis, believe the ingredient in question is arachidonic acid, known as ARA. It helps stimulate cognitive abilities in newborns and is increasingly added to infant formulas, especially premium products and those sold in Asia, where formulas are more enriched than elsewhere.

In conclusion, Oddo BHF notes that "if the Danone case appears at this stage to be very limited and isolated, it is nonetheless reasonable to consider a broader risk affecting the entire industry, which could result—in a worst case scenario—in a global recall ordered by public authorities to end a crisis that could not only turn into panic but also seriously harm the health of newborns."

Analysts point out that Danone's drop yesterday (-8.42%) may seem excessive, but the risk of contagion "could very likely freeze a rebound in the stock until the sector risk is clarified."

The recommendation remains Outperform with a price target of 84 euros, representing a 26.47% upside from Wednesday's close.