OPENING CALL

Stock futures pointed to a lower open Tuesday suggesting Monday's declines were set to continue.

The market decline is reflective of investors less certain the Federal Reserve will cut rates next month and questioning bloated artificial-intelligence valuations.

"Markets scaled back bets to below a 50% chance of a reduction after several Fed officials signaled caution, even as Governor Christopher Waller voiced support," MUFG said.

That is in contrast with Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, who suggested the Fed needed to proceed with caution .

According to the FedWatch tool, traders now price in a 46.4% chance of further rate cuts next month.

DZ Bank said it expects the Fed to proceed more cautiously after a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut in December.

With the Fed's next move uncertain, Sucden Financial said Thursday's September nonfarm payrolls report takes the spotlight.

"With the data calendar still distorted, investors are increasingly sensitive to labour-market signals as they reassess the near-term path of the Federal Reserve."

Meanwhile, Trump was set to host Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in the White House.

Stocks to Watch

Alphabet rose 0.6%, extending Monday's gains after Berkshire Hathaway disclosed it purchased shares of the company during the third quarter.

Axalta Coating Systems rose 8% after agreeing to an all-stock merger with AkzoNobel.

Baidu shares fell 0.7% after reporting better-than-expected results.

Coinbase Global dropped 0.4%, Robinhood Markets fell 1.2%, and Strategy slipped 0.5% as investors continued to drop Bitcoin.

Dell Technologies slipped 0.7% after it ended Monday's session as the worst-performing stock in the S&P 500.

Nvidia fell 1% after shares dropped 1.9% on Monday when billionaire Peter Thiel's fund disclosed it sold its stock in the company.

Watch For:

U.S. Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for October; Canada Housing Starts for October; Home Depot 3Q earnings; Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr speaks on Bank Supervision at Kogod School of Business Alan Meltzer Speaker Series event; FRB Dallas President Lorie Logan speaks at Global Perspectives event

Today's Top Headlines/Must Reads:

- The Weight-Loss Craze Is About to Mint a Trillion-Dollar Company

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MARKET WRAPS

Forex:

The dollar edged lower ahead of jobs data that could influence expectations on whether the Fed will cut interest rates again in December.

The resumption of data is "likely to lift near-term foreign exchange volatility, particularly as multiple jobs reports ahead of the December Fed meeting could drive meaningful market swings," Danske Bank said.

The euro gained slightly against the dollar and the currency has room to strengthen further ahead of key U.S. data, ING said, adding that the exchange rate remained undervalued suggesting more scope for gains than falls.

"Risks are tilted to the downside for the dollar once the U.S. data cycle kicks in, and we expect a December Fed cut to become the market's base case again."

Sterling was flat against the dollar and steady versus the euro, but it could face renewed losses if the upcoming U.K. budget includes more tax rises than expected, Monex Europe said.

"A deluge of (often contradictory) reports has left markets with an unprecedented level of uncertainty around what to expect from the event."

Bitcoin fell to an almost seven-month low following a tech-led selloff in U.S. stocks overnight.

Risk aversion has intensified on concerns about lofty valuations of AI-related stocks and ahead of key releases including Nvidia earnings later Wednesday.

Bonds:

Treasury yields fell, extending Monday's trend, as delayed factory orders data for August are awaited, alongside central bank speakers.

The Fed is expected to deliver a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut in December , before proceeding more cautiously, DZ Bank said, forecasting only two further 25bp rate cuts in March and June.

Despite the rate cuts, the uptick in inflation will drive the 10-year Treasury yield higher, DZ Bank expects.

A pause in the Fed's rate-cutting cycle would probably flatten the Treasury yield curve and boost the value of the dollar, Franklin Templeton Institute said.

This could inhibit some of the broadening investment opportunities that Franklin Templeton envisages .

Metals:

Gold prices fell for a fourth consecutive trading session, weighed down by reduced expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates again this year and as investors await delayed U.S. economic data.

Base metal prices drifted lower amid diminishing prospects of a December interest-rate cut by the Fed and as investors await the release of delayed U.S. economic data.

"Thursday's September nonfarm payrolls report is now centre stage. With the data calendar still distorted, investors are increasingly sensitive to labour-market signals as they reassess the near-term path of the Federal Reserve," Sucden Financial said.

Energy:

Oil prices slipped, pressured by prospects of a growing supply surplus and as traders continued to closely monitor Russian flows.

"Prices remain tethered between geopolitical instability and structural supply expansion," XMArabia said. 


   TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES

France's Credit Agricole Looks to Europe to Boost Earnings

Credit Agricole S.A. is hoping to grow outside its home market in its new three-year plan and to deepen its presence beyond its borders to lift earnings.

The French bank aims to deliver more than 8.5 billion euros, equivalent to $9.85 billion, in net profit in 2028, from 6.9 billion euros in 2024, on revenue that will growth more than 3.5% per year to exceed 30 billion euros by the end of the period, it said on Tuesday.

First Brands to Tap Examiner to Probe Financial Irregularities

A judge overseeing the First Brands bankruptcy case said he intends to approve the appointment of an examiner to investigate claims of potential financial irregularities at the auto-parts supplier.

Judge Christopher Lopez of the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Houston said Monday he would authorize an examiner to oversee an investigation leading up to the company's bankruptcy. The scope could include claims of allegedly fabricated invoices, double-pledged collateral and manipulation of the company's books and records, according to court papers filed on Monday.

U.S. Investigators Probe Exec Facing Fraud Allegations From BlackRock's HPS

Federal investigators are probing the telecommunications executive facing fraud allegations from BlackRock's HPS Investment Partners and other lenders, according to people familiar with the matter.

The criminal investigation, which is being led by the Federal Bureau of Investigation and the U.S. Attorney's Office in Brooklyn, centers on Bankim Brahmbhatt and his business activities, the people said. It couldn't be determined when the inquiry began or if it would result in any charges.

Netflix Stock Just Split. What It Means as Streaming War Heats Up.

Netflix stock is dropping as a a 10-for-1 stock split takes effect.

The video streamer announced the split in late October. Every shareholder of record as of Nov. 10 received nine additional shares after Friday's closing bell. The stock closed down 0.8% at $110.29 on Monday.

Higher Tariffs Take Toll on Global Growth, and Impact Is Set to Linger

The rise in U.S. taxes on imports has had a lighter impact on the global economy than many policymakers and businesses had feared, but it nonetheless is having an impact that will likely persist through next year and beyond.

Figures released Monday showed the economies of Japan and Switzerland both contracted in the three months through September, in part because of the higher taxes U.S. businesses must pay if they buy goods made in either country.

Panel Flags China Risks in Biotechs, Quantum, Legacy Chips, Taiwan

The U.S. needs to up its game in protecting its biotech, quantum and foundational semiconductor supply chains so that China isn't able to weaponize its dominance in these areas the way it did with rare-earth minerals earlier in the year, according to an annual report released Tuesday from a panel of security and economic experts that advise Congress.

That was one of 28 recommendations the U.S.-China Security & Economic Commission made to Congress to better navigate the intensifying rivalry between the two countries.The report follows a fragile truce between the two geopolitical rivals after the U.S. withheld from China the computer chips used for artificial intelligence and Beijing cut exports to the U.S. of rare-earth minerals critical to autos, semiconductors and military equipment.

The U.S.-China Trade Detente Is Fragile. Soybeans Are a Warning Sign.

Signs are already pointing to the shakiness of the trade detente President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping struck in late October.

Both rivals are intensifying their efforts to reduce their vulnerabilities, and there are indications that some commitments under the deal might not be fulfilled. China, for example, has bought just a tiny share of the soybeans the U.S. says it had agreed to purchase by January.

Top Fed Chair Candidates Press Attacks on the Bank

Two of the leading contenders to replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell took aim at the Fed, sharpening their criticism as the White House prepares for a decision on the central bank's leadership.

(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

11-18-25 0628ET