OPENING CALL
Stock futures sank early Monday, as investors continued to be spooked by concerns that AI market excitement may have run ahead of fundamentals.
Oracle was leading tech stock falls after it said it would seek to raise $50 billion this year through a mix of equity and credit.
And sentiment around chip darling Nvidia soured further after CEO Jensen Huang cooled on an apparent commitment to invest $100 billion in OpenAI.
The week ahead brings a raft of Big Tech earnings that could compound or dispel that view with Amazon, Alphabet, Palantir, and Advanced Micro Devices set to report.
After Friday's dramatic reversal, metals showed signs of stabilizing.
Most-active gold futures were recently less than 1% lower, while silver reversed out of an earlier slide to gain nearly 2%.
Brent crude futures fell nearly 5% after Trump said he believed Iran was negotiating seriously with the U.S.
Further afield, European equities followed their Asian peers who closed lower at open, but were recouping losses in midday trade.
Stocks to Watch
Coinbase, Strategy and Robinhood: Shares of the crypto-linked companies slid premarket, after bitcoin prices sank.
Estée Lauder climbed more than 6% premarket. The company has been in the spotlight since Trump picked Kevin Warsh- husband of Estée Lauder heiress Jane Lauder - to lead the Fed.
Newmont and Barrick Mining extended last week's selloff premarket.
Oracle: Shares fell 3% premarket after the company said plans to raise up to $50 billion this year to fund its AI infrastructure buildout.
Watch For:
ISM Report on Business Manufacturing PMI for January; Earnings from Walt Disney; Tyson Foods; Palantir and NXP Semiconductors.
Today's Top Headlines/Must Reads:
-Maritime Regulator's New Head Targets Global Risks to Shipping
-Hackers Recruit Unhappy Insiders To Bypass Data Security
-These Rural Americans Are Trying to Hold Back the Tide of AI
MARKET WRAPS
Forex:
The dollar rose in the wake of Warsh's nomination.
Previous speeches suggest he will favor reducing the Fed's balance sheet over coming years, Jefferies said.
Warsh could also favor less accommodative policy if inflation is seen as getting entrenched, it said, but other elements of the U.S. diversification trade were still in play, due to Trump's policies, the threat of more tariffs, and other countries' desire to diversify their asset holdings.
ING said the dollar could extend its recovery if upcoming nonfarm payrolls data were decent.
Maybank said the DXY index has found a firmer foothold , but price action suggested a more dramatic reversal was still unlikely, and expected resistance at 97.50 after Warsh's surprise nomination for the top job at the Fed prompted market players to drop the dollar debasement narrative.
The euro could fall if the European Central Bank stresses concerns about its appreciation following its meeting on Thursday.
Rabobank said Lagarde might try to slow the euro's momentum a bit with verbal intervention, but it reckoned that the currency could appreciate quite a bit further before it would warrant another rate cut.
The Swiss franc --which recently rose in tandem with precious metals as Switzerland is a major gold refiner-- fell, along with other commoditiy-linked currencies.
Monex Europe said that any comments from the Bank of England at Thursday's rate announcement about risks stemming from fiscal tightening in November's U.K. budget could weaken sterling .
Bonds:
Treasury yields declined, and Deutsche Bank said this week investors would be monitoring Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement.
"In Wednesday's refunding statement, we expect Treasury to reaffirm its guidance of maintaining nominal coupon sizes 'for the next several quarters' while continuing to signal future increases."
HSBC expects the Treasury to leave coupon auction sizes unchanged for the next quarter and through FY 2026.
Energy:
Oil plunged nearly 5% as a broader selloff sweeps commodities markets and negotiations between the U.S. and Iran eased supply concerns.
Trump told reporters that he believed Iran was negotiating seriously with the U.S., tempering concerns about an imminent confrontation that could disrupt supplies in the oil-rich region.
"This removed some risk premium out of the market, even as US military presence in the region continues to build," ANZ said.
Separately, key members of OPEC+ agreed to keep oil output unchanged at their Sunday meeting.
Metals:
Gold retreated below $5,000 after top commodity exchange CME Group raised margin requirements following the selloff in metals.
The move raises the cost of holding positions, forcing traders to commit more capital.
CME said higher margin requirements for precious-metal futures will take effect after Monday's close.
Samco Securities said the larger uptrend for gold remained clearly intact.
Importantly, prior breakout zones were holding, suggesting that strong hands were still willing to buy on dips, it said.
Gold may spend the next few months in a range, which is common after rallies, allowing optimism to cool and positioning to reset.
If a consolidation phase plays out, it would be healthy, setting the stage for the next move.
Silver
Silver prices returned to positive territory after crashing on Friday, though they remained well below last week's highs.
UBS is increasingly bullish about silver and lifted its silver price forecast rise by more than 40%,
projecting an average price of $105 in 2026 and $85 in 2027.
William Blair said volatility was likely to persist in silver, adding that market balances point to a silver deficit this year.
However, industrial demand--roughly 60% of total silver demand--was soft, and prices were still higher year to date.
Copper
Base metals retreated, with copper futures slipping back below $13,000.
TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES
Intesa Plans to Cut 6,100 Jobs by 2029 in Savings Push
Intesa Sanpaolo said it plans to cut 6,100 jobs by 2029 in a bid to rein in costs and boost profit, and to distribute to shareholders nearly half of its market value through dividends and buybacks.
Italy's largest bank by assets said Monday that it plans around 12,400 employee exits, mostly in Italy, and 6,300 hires by 2029. The net reduction in headcount amounts to about 6.7% of a workforce of some 90,700 as of Sept. 30.
How a Silicon Valley Startup Became a Crypto Lifeline for Venezuela
The founders of fintech startup Kontigo eagerly embraced the Silicon Valley playbook: packing the company into a San Francisco home for a TikTok-ready hackathon; peppering their pitches with buzzwords about building a "neobank for Latinos"; and making outlandish claims about pioneering a Martian economy.
The performance helped the tiny, boisterous cryptocurrency startup land a coveted slot in the prestigious incubator Y Combinator and, in December, raise more than $20 million from big-name Silicon Valley investors, including Coinbase's venture fund.
Luxury Brands Need a Comeback in China. They Shouldn't Count on It.
Chinese shoppers are returning to luxury stores, but with less appetite to spend and in greatly diminished numbers. That is disappointing for high-end brands desperate for fresh growth.
After five years of weak sales, some luxury brands said their China business recently turned a corner. Richemont, which owns Cartier and Van Cleef & Arpels jewelry, said sales started to grow again in China in the third quarter of 2025. British luxury trench coat maker Burberry also noticed an improvement last fall, and said demand accelerated further in the final three months of the year.
The AI Boom Is Coming for Apple's Profit Margins
Apple has dominated the electronics supply chain for years. No more.
Artificial-intelligence companies are writing huge checks for chips, memory, specialized glass fiber and more, and they have begun to outduel Apple in the race to secure components. Suppliers accustomed to catering to Apple's every whim are gaining the leverage to demand that the iPhone maker pay more.
Gold now down nearly $1,000 from peak as silver struggles following record 31% slump
A volatile day was setting up for precious and base metals, with pressure focused on silver astraders watched China markets for signals of a deeper rout.
The most-active March silver contract SIH26 SI00 dropped over 5% at one point in early trading before recovering to $78.79 an ounce. Friday's slump of 31% to $78.53 an ounce on Comex marked its biggest one-day percentage drop since March 27, 1980, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
ECB and BOE on Hold as Dollar Weakens and Imports From China Surge
Europe's leading central banks are set to leave their key interest rates unchanged Thursday, matching the Federal Reserve's latest decision as they consider the impact of a weaker U.S. dollar and an influx of cheap Chinese imports on the outlook for inflation.
The European Central Bank hasn't changed borrowing costs since June, and investors don't expect to see much action in the months ahead. The annual rate of inflation in the eurozone ended the year very slightly below the central bank's 2% target, while economic growth in 2025 was stronger than expected.
Yen Moves Causing More Worry at BOJ, Opinions Summary Shows
TOKYO-The Bank of Japan has grown more cautious about the inflation risk posed by a weak yen, a summary of opinions showed Monday, after recent volatility put markets on alert for intervention.
The summary of opinions from the central bank's January meeting, which doesn't identify speakers by name, underlined concerns about the yen and the risk of the BOJ tightening policy settings too slowly.
Asia PMIs Signal Solid Start for Manufacturers in 2026
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
02-02-26 0616ET
