OPENING CALL

Stock futures were climbing Monday with an end to the record-long government shutdown appearing to be in sight.

The Senate late Sunday cleared a key hurdle after Democrats provided just enough votes to advance a measure designed to end the impasse.

"The next 48 hours in Congress should tell us whether this initiative has legs," ING said.

An end to the impasse should bring a resumption of economic data. Releases due this week include inflation data for October and jobless claims on Thursday, followed by October retail sales and producer prices on Friday.

Technology stocks were among the biggest gainers in the premarket rally, but questions over the AI trade continue to swirl.

The Nasdaq composite on Friday posted its worst week since Trump launched a trade war in April, amid concerns about companies overspending and overpromising on AI initiatives.

Stocks to Watch

Trump said the "hundreds of billions of dollars" paid to health insurers under the Affordable Care Act should go directly to the public. Centene, Molina Healthcare and Oscar Health dropped premarket.

Diageo named a new chief executive. Dave Lewis will take over from interim CEO Nik Jhangiani. Shares rose 7%.

Pfizer agreed to buy Metsera in a deal that could be worth more than $10 billion , beating Novo Nordisk. Novo Nordisk skidded 5% in Denmark, while Metsera slid 15% premarket.

Robinhood, Strategy and Coinbase rallied ahead of the open, tracking an upturn in bitcoin prices.

Rumble said it will buy Northern Data in a deal worth up to $970 million. Shares rose 13% premarket.

Visa and Mastercard are nearing a settlement with merchants to end a 20-year-old legal dispute by lowering the fees stores pay and giving them more power to reject cards, The Wall Street Journal reported.

The Federal Aviation Administration ordered all MD-11 planes temporarily grounded after the fatal crash of a UPS jet. UPS and FedEx removed the Boeing-made planes from service shortly before.

Economic Insight

Progress has been made to end the government shutdown, but as long as the lack of mainstream data persists, the market will be left somewhat rudderles , First Abu Dhabi Bank said.

"Moreover, we expect rates volatility and uncertainty to remain elevated for the foreseeable future."

Watch For:

U.S. Employment Trends Index for October; World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (no data during government shutdown); earnings from Barrick Mining, Instacart and Tyson Foods

Today's Top Headlines/Must Reads:

-Microsoft's Dealings With OpenAI Still Need a Lot More Sunlight

-Can the Tallest Running Shoe Out There Chart the Path for Nike's Comeback?

-Italian Pasta Is Poised to Disappear From American Grocery Shelves

MARKET WRAPS

Forex:

The dollar traded steady after the Senate deal.

The greenback has risen during the absence of negative data that would have indicated a slowdown in the economy, Commerzbank said.

The bank added that it will probably take a while for the data to become reliable again after the shutdown ends, meaning the dollar's outlook looks unclear.

Sterling fell against the euro and could continue to weaken if data on Tuesday show U.K. wage growth slowed further, boosting the case for an interest-rate cut in December.

The prospects of a 25bp rate cut from the Bank of England next month are underpriced, according to ING.

Bonds:

Treasury yields rose on renewed hopes for an end to the U.S. government shutdown.

Commerzbank Research said bond market headwinds were intensifying amid improving risk sentiment.

"Against this backdrop, bond markets are feeling the pressure with risk sentiment improving and fears about the damage to the economy subsiding."

UBS said that rapidly-rising debt will mean that investors continue to demand higher term premium to invest in longer-term Treasurys.

LBBW said supply pressure on the long end of the Treasury curve could increase from next summer to meet the U.S. government's persistently high net financing requirements.

"In our view, below-average investor demand could fuel the recent bond-bearish trend once again ."

BlueBay Asset Management said there is structurally less demand for bond duration globally, likely keeping term premia elevated.

The compound yield for 30-year Japanese government bonds was likely to remain within the 3% to 3.2% range for some time, according to Citi Research.

Energy:

Oil prices rose , supported by progress in ending the U.S. government shutdown and as investors awaited a series of industry reports due this week.

Traders are also closely monitoring Russian oil flows following the latest U.S. sanctions, with media reports saying Trump has granted Hungary a one-year exemption for buying Russian energy.

Metals:

Gold prices jumped in early trading, driven by expectations of further rate cuts in December after U.S. data showed a surge in October layoffs and weakening consumer sentiment.

"Signs of a weakening U.S. economy outweighed progress in negotiations to end the record-breaking government shutdown," MUFG said.

Comex gold futures were seeking to resume their uptrend, RHB Retail Research said.

Copper

Prices rose , supported by expectations of a December rate cut and progress in U.S.-China trade relations.

Iron ore

Prices declined amid demand concerns . Inventories at Chinese ports were rising due to higher imports and weaker steel production, ANZ analysts said. 


   TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES

Softer TSMC Sales Shouldn't Set off AI Alarm Bells

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.'s sales slowed to the softest pace in over one and a half years for October. However, with growth still in the double digits and the Taiwanese chip maker guiding for more ahead, analysts see little cause for concern.

Sales at the world's largest chip contract maker-seen as a bellwether of industry trends-rose 17% last month from a year earlier, TSMC said Monday.

Pfizer and Metsera Reach Deal Expected to Top $10 Billion

Pfizer has agreed to buy the weight-loss drug startup Metsera in a deal that could be worth more than $10 billion, besting Novo Nordisk following a heated bidding war.

Under the terms of the cash deal, Pfizer will pay $65.60 a share upfront and a contingent value right worth up to $20.65 a share, Metsera said Friday.

Disney's 'Predator: Badlands' Kicks Off November With $40 Million Box Office Haul

Walt Disney's Predator: Badlands dominated the box office this weekend, hauling in a higher-than-expected $40 million in the U.S. and Canada, and another $40 million in international ticket sales.

The showing is a positive sign for Hollywood heading into the crucial holiday moviegoing season as movie studios and theater chains try to overcome the worst October box office sales in decades.

Global Markets Rise on Hopes for an End to U.S. Government Shutdown

Hopes for an end to the U.S. government's shutdown boosted risk sentiment at the start of the week as international stock markets tracked U.S. futures higher.

The Senate on Sunday cleared a key hurdle in its drive to end the record-long shutdown after Democrats provided enough votes to advance a measure aimed to end the impasse, albeit some procedural steps remain to be cleared. "It looks like we are getting close to the shutdown ending," President Trump told reporters Sunday evening. "You'll know very soon."

U.S.-Stock Funds Push Year's Gain to 12%

Tech stocks have many fund investors counting their blessings so far this year.

It hasn't been a singularly upward advance. But the strong earnings from technology stocks like Amazon.com have put the Nasdaq Composite Index on a seven-month winning streak, the longest stretch since 2018. That, in turn, has supported large-capitalization "growth" funds-which gained 3.3% in October, to push the year-to-date advance to 19%, among the strongest fund categories on the board.

Trump Suggests $2,000 Payouts to Americans as He Defends Tariffs

President Trump suggested tariff revenue could be used to fund payments of at least $2,000 to most Americans.

Days after the Supreme Court appeared skeptical of the legal backing for many of his tariffs, the president on social media Sunday lauded the revenue they have brought in and said the government would soon begin paying down the country's debt. He also said a payment of at least $2,000 would be made to everyone but high-income earners.

Corporate Earnings Were Great This Quarter. Wall Street Is Still Not Impressed.

American companies are turning in one of their best quarters in years. Wall Street has just shrugged.

Of the 446 S&P 500 companies to report third-quarter results so far, more than 80% of them beat analysts' estimates, according to LSEG I/B/E/S data. That is the biggest crop of outperformers since the spring of 2021. But no matter how many times those analysts might have uttered the words, "great quarter, guys," in recent weeks, the message hasn't reached stock investors.

The Nord Stream Investigation That's Splintering Europe Over Ukraine

BERLIN-For three years, a crack team of detectives gathered each weekday morning around a whiteboard at the German Federal Police headquarters in Potsdam, near Berlin. Now their investigation into who was behind the greatest act of sabotage in modern history-the bombing of the Nord Stream pipelines-is threatening to splinter support for Ukraine, the country they hold responsible.

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