Nordea has upgraded its recommendation for Danish brewing giant Carlsberg to Hold from Sell, setting a fair value of DKK 800, according to a research note.
The adjustment comes despite slightly lowered forecasts following the brewer's decision to switch partners from Coca-Cola to Pepsico in certain markets. Revenue and EBIT projections for 2029 have been trimmed by 1 percent due to the partner swap, while organic EBIT growth for 2026 is expected to land at the lower end of the company's guidance range of 2-6 percent.
The bank highlights both upside potential and risks for Carlsberg in its analysis. Upside catalysts include a potential end to the war in Ukraine and subsequent lower commodity prices, as well as stronger growth in China. Risks are linked to demand trends, raw material costs, and the reliance on Pepsico.
"Pepsico has demonstrated a willingness to withdraw licenses, which could pose a risk given that Carlsberg has become quite dependent on Pepsi volumes," Nordea writes.
Carlsberg shares are trading down nearly 1 percent.
Carlsberg A/S is one of the world's leading beer producers. Net sales break down by activity as follows:
- beer production and sales: 99 million hectoliters sold in 2025 primarily under the Carlsberg and Tuborg brands;
- production, bottling, and distribution of non-alcoholic beverages: carbonated beverages, energy drinks, and mineral waters (49 million hectoliters sold in 2025).
At the end of 2025, the group had 57 breweries located in Denmark, in Poland (3), in Germany (3), in the United Kingdom (2), in Western Europe (4), in China (27), in India (7), in Asia (3), and in Central/Eastern Europe (7).
Net sales are distributed geographically as follows: Western Europe (58%), Asia (21.6%), and Eastern Europe/Central Europe/India (20.4%).
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