According to the study released by the U.S. bank, this event will undoubtedly be 'the most important milestone since the new CEO took office in November,' as the group seeks to restore its credibility after several earnings misses in recent years.

During the CMD, scheduled for July 16, the new CEO is expected to present the findings of his strategic review, his forecasts for fiscal year 2027, and his medium-term objectives.

From Morgan Stanley's perspective, Thierry Delaporte will need to strike a fine balance between realistic ambitions and a convincing turnaround plan.

Sodexo shares have gained 6% since the start of the year and have rebounded 18% from their April low following a profit warning, a recovery suggesting that the market believes the worst is over.

Targets seen below consensus

However, the New York-based firm urges investors to remain cautious and anticipates announcements that will fall short of current market expectations.

Morgan Stanley forecasts that Sodexo will set 2027 targets of 2% organic sales growth and a 20-basis-point margin improvement, outlooks that are lower than the consensus, which currently sits around 3% organic growth and 40 basis points of margin expansion.

Consequently, the bank is lowering its earnings per share (EPS) estimates for fiscal years 2027 and 2028 by 6%, placing them approximately 11% below consensus.

Despite this displayed caution, Morgan Stanley is raising its price target on the stock to 44 euros from 40 euros previously, to account for the sector re-rating that has benefited its European peers. Its recommendation remains Underweight.