Mixed Expectations for European Markets, Spotlight on Macro Data

(Alliance News) - On Friday, Europe's main stock indices are expected to open mixed, with IG futures pointing to Milan's Piazza Affari in positive territory and Frankfurt fluctuating around parity without momentum.

This morning, inflation data from Germany, France, and Spain are due, alongside employment figures from Germany and France.

Meanwhile, before the market opened, MPS announced the approval of its 2026–2030 Industrial Plan, titled "From deep roots to new frontiers, a leading competitive force in banking." This follows the successful public offer and exchange on Mediobanca, with an 86.3% acceptance rate, and foresees the merger by incorporation of Mediobanca, with full-synergy savings estimated at EUR700 million.

The FTSE Mib is indicated up 0.1% or 42.5 points after closing Thursday up 0.5% at 47,425.94.

Across Europe, London's FTSE 100 is seen rising 0.3% or 36.1 points, Paris's CAC 40 is indicated up 0.1% or 7.8 points, and Frankfurt's DAX 40 is projected down 0.1% or 9.0 points.

In Milan, last night, the Mid-Cap gained 0.5% to 60,219.21, the Small-Cap rose 0.8% to 36,288.01, while the Italy Growth index registered a 0.2% increase to 8,748.34.

Back in Milan, Thursday evening saw strength in Nexi, which finished up 4.4% at EUR3.41 per share, marking its second consecutive positive session and topping the leaderboard. Notably, Two Sigma cut its short position on the stock to 1.26% from 1.39%.

Stellantis — up 4.2% — reported closing fiscal 2025 with a net loss of EUR22.33 billion compared to a net profit of EUR5.52 billion in 2024, a result influenced by EUR25.4 billion in extraordinary charges related to strategic repositioning. To maintain a solid capital structure, the company explained, the board authorized the suspension of the 2026 dividend and the issuance of up to EUR5 billion in hybrid bonds.

Eni — up 2.5% — announced Thursday it closed 2025 with adjusted net profit of EUR4.99 billion, down from EUR5.26 billion as of December 31, 2024. Hydrocarbon production in 2025 stood at 1.73 million barrels per day, up from 1.71 million the previous year.

Saipem slipped 0.7% to EUR3.48 per share. RBC Capital Markets maintains its 'sector perform' rating on the stock and raised its target price to EUR3.90 per share from EUR2.75 after the release of fourth-quarter 2025 results. The company reported Tuesday it closed 2025 with net profit of EUR310 million, up 1.3% from EUR306 million in 2024. The board intends to propose a dividend of EUR0.17 per share — unchanged from 2024 — equivalent to around EUR330 million.

Telecom Italia, on the other hand, dropped 4.3% after two positive sessions, following solid results that showed, among other things, a slight increase in both revenues and margins. After this year's planned EUR400 million buyback, Telecom Italia CEO Pietro Labriola announced a EUR500 million dividend for spring 2027.

In the secondary segment, BFF Bank performed strongly, gaining 6.2% following Wednesday evening's 1.2% advance.

Comer Industries also advanced, up 2.0%, marking its fourth consecutive positive session.

Pirelli — up 1.2% — announced Wednesday it closed 2025 with net profit up 5.9% to EUR530.7 million from EUR501.1 million in 2024. The board will propose a total dividend of EUR0.34 per share, of which EUR0.24 ordinary for about EUR260 million and EUR0.10 extraordinary for about EUR109 million, for a total payout of around EUR369 million.

Cementir Holding lagged, ending down 1.2% at EUR15.98 per share, continuing its losing streak.

Technoprobe, meanwhile, fell 2.8% after two positive sessions.

On the Small-Cap, Beewize gained 3.6% to EUR0.34, after two losing sessions in which it had dropped a combined nearly 11%.

Eurotech — up 4.0% — announced the completion of its rights issue for a total value of EUR17.5 million. The operation involved a maximum of 21 million new ordinary shares and concluded at the end of the unexercised rights period following the option offer that ended on February 19.

Banca Sistema, meanwhile, slipped 0.4% to EUR1.60 per share. Applying peer group multiples to the company, the theoretical price would be about double that of the offer from Banca CF+, controlled by the Elliott fund. To justify Equita's fairness opinion, which values the share at EUR1.795 — in line with the initial offer of EUR1.8 — "unrealistic assumptions" would be needed.

This is according to Julian Harper, CIO of Tico Capital Management, a fund specializing in small caps and a shareholder with over 1% of Banca Sistema since 2019. Harper has written several times to Consob since the end of January seeking clarification on valuation criteria, without receiving a response.

Generalfinance rose 1.6% to EUR26.00 per share. Intesa Sanpaolo confirmed its 'buy' recommendation on the stock and its target price at EUR28.20, in line with previous broker guidance.

Among SMEs, Alfonsino dropped 1.8% to EUR0.21. The company announced Thursday that, following the successful completion of the testing phase and operational validation, it has begun the nationwide rollout of its Table Reservation service in four locations.

Compagnia dei Caraibi advanced 4.5% to EUR0.4190 per share, after two losing sessions.

Datrix — up 5.4% — closed 2025 with adjusted Ebitda of about EUR1.8 million, up 70% from EUR1.0 million in 2024, with adjusted Ebitda margin on total revenues rising to 13% from 6% the previous year. Consolidated net revenues stood at about EUR10.9 million, down 15% from EUR12.8 million in 2024, in line with the strategy of repositioning and focusing on higher-margin business.

Circle — up 2.0% — announced Thursday the launch of the BoostEDIC M&L project — European Digital Infrastructure Consortium for Mobility & Logistics Data Support Project — a strategic initiative aimed at accelerating the development of the common European mobility data space. The project — funded with a total of EUR15 million under the EU's Digital Europe Programme — includes a grant of EUR189,000 for Circle.

In New York on Thursday, the Dow Jones closed fractionally higher, the S&P 500 slipped 0.5%, and the Nasdaq lost 1.2%.

Among Asian markets, the Nikkei closed up 0.2%, the Shanghai Composite gained 0.4%, and the Hang Seng advanced 1.2%.

On the currency front, the euro is trading at USD1.1801 from USD1.1793 at Thursday's European stock close, while the pound is at USD1.3467 from USD1.3533 last night.

Among commodities, Brent crude is trading at USD71.32 per barrel from USD72.36 per barrel Thursday evening, while gold is worth USD5,187.63 an ounce from USD5,178.00 an ounce last night.

Key events on Friday's economic calendar include Germany's unemployment rate at 0855 CET and 1300 CET, while at 1000 CET, Italy's industrial sales data will be released. At the same time, focus will be on Germany's inflation figures.

At 1100 CET, Italy will release trade balance data.

At 2030 CET — as is customary on Fridays — the COT Report will be published.

On the corporate calendar for Piazza Affari, results are expected from Renovalo, Reti, Sogefi, TXT e-solutions, and 4AIM Sicaf.

By Antonio Di Giorgio, Alliance News reporter

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