Mib down; money markets price in two ECB hikes

(Alliance News) - The Mib is recording a significant contraction in Monday's session, falling to the 43,400-point area. The movement extends last week's losses and brings the index to its lowest levels since the end of November, in line with the negative tone observed on other major European listings.

The correction was primarily triggered by a fresh spike in energy prices, with crude returning well above the psychological threshold of USD100 per barrel, reigniting fears of more persistent inflationary pressure in the short term.

In this context, the market has rapidly revised ECB monetary policy expectations. Rate contracts now incorporate the hypothesis of two 25-basis-point hikes during the year, compared to just one tightening expected only last week, reflecting the risk that the central bank may need to maintain a more restrictive stance to contain inflationary dynamics.

Consequently, the FTSE Mib marks a decline of 1.6% to 43,446.40, the Mid-Cap is in the red by 2.1% at 54,973.04, the Small-Cap yields 1.5% to 34,095.21, while Italy Growth retreats 1.4% to 8,359.20.

London's FTSE 100 is moving in the red by 1.3%, the CAC 40 in Paris yields 2.0%, while the DAX 40 in Frankfurt is shedding 1.6%.

Returning to Milan, on Piazza Affari's large-cap list, Leonardo positions itself among the few gainers, driven by tensions in the Middle East with the price advancing 4.7% to EUR61.38 per share.

Strength - as the price of a barrel soars - is also seen on Eni and Saipem, up 0.4% and 0.8% respectively.

DiaSorin - slightly above parity - announced that it purchased 310,077 of its own ordinary shares at an average price of EUR69.746 each for a total of EUR21.6 million. The shares were purchased between March 2 and March 6.

Assicurazioni Generali - down 1.1% - announced on Monday that it has reached an agreement for the sale of its P&C businesses in Ireland and Northern Ireland to Zurich Insurance Europe and Zurich Insurance Company, UK Branch, both part of the Zurich Insurance group. Previously, the P&C business was managed through the Irish and British branches of Generali Spain under the RedClick brand. The value of the sale is EUR337 million.

Lottomatica yields 0.6% to EUR24.76 per share. Kepler Cheuvreux maintains a 'buy' recommendation on Lottomatica and raises the target price to EUR30.00 from EUR28.00. For 2026, Kepler estimates revenues of approximately EUR2.4 billion, up about 7%, supported by double-digit expansion in online and single-digit growth in sports retail. Adjusted Ebitda is expected around EUR950 million, with margins improving thanks to a more favorable mix and approximately EUR24 million in incremental synergies.

Analysts also emphasize that improved cash generation should translate into a significant increase in free cash flow as early as 2026. According to analyst Hugo Paternoster, growth in the online segment continues to support the group's margin expansion and cash generation.

On the cadet segment, a boost for Alerion, which moves forward by 6.8%, marking its fourth consecutive bullish candle.

Avio - in the green by 2.2% - announced on Friday that Defense Systems and Solutions has selected the group for the development, qualification, and initial production of a solid propellant engine for air defense. Defense Systems and Solutions is a joint venture between Yulista Integrated Solutions and Science and Engineering Services, acting as prime contractor for the US Department of War.

The board of Anima Holding - down 2.7% - approved the inflow data for February 2026, a month that closed with negative net inflows of EUR560 million in asset management.

Banca Generali - bearish at 2.2% - announced on Monday that it achieved net inflows of EUR710 million in February, bringing total inflows to EUR1.2 billion since the beginning of the year. As the company explained in a note, the quality of inflows was positive, as evidenced by the increase in Assets under Investment flows compared to January, amounting to EUR322 million for the month and EUR384 million year-to-date.

On the Small-Cap, Aeffe is advancing well, rising 5.1% to EUR0.2355, following a 3.3% decline on Friday evening.

Good buying also on IRCE, which brings the price up 3.4%, after the previous session closed flat with the price in the EUR2.12 area. The company on the MarketScreener platform - based on the valuation of a single analyst - is indicated with a target price of EUR3.40, representing an upside potential of over 65%.

Tesmec is instead yielding 4.2%, ahead of results due on Wednesday and with the price in the EUR0.17 per share area.

Banca Profilo is yielding 3.4% to EUR0.15 per share, following a 2.1% decline in the previous session.

Among SMEs, Kruso Kapital advances 5.6% to EUR1.71, after a 0.6% drop in the previous session, bringing the price to the EUR1.70 per share area.

E-Globe - down 9.4% - announced that it closed 2025, according to preliminary results, with a production value of approximately EUR33 million, while Ebitda is approximately EUR700,000. Net financial debt stands at EUR4.2 million.

CrowdFundMe - not yet traded - announced on Monday that it approved the reverse take-over operation involving the merger by incorporation of Smart4Tech and WeAreStarting into the company.

As the company explained in a note, the operation is aimed at integrating into a single platform the skills necessary to structure extraordinary finance operations - through equity, lending, club deal, and minibond instruments - and to assist companies with strategic consultancy services oriented toward industrial growth and business development.

Maps - down 2.9% - announced that it has been awarded a contract with the Puglia Region for the enhancement and expansion of technological systems supporting health prevention campaigns. In detail, the note reads, the company will evolve the application currently used by the Region for managing screening, vaccination, and infectious disease surveillance campaigns, with the aim of improving process efficiency and the quality of interactions with citizens.

The contract provides Maps with a consideration of approximately EUR1.3 million for a total duration of 24 months.

In New York, in pre-market trading, the Dow Jones is yielding 1.2%, while the S&P 500 yields 1.1%, as does the Nasdaq.

On the currency front, the euro changes hands at USD1.1559 from USD1.1601 at Friday's European equity close, while the pound trades at USD1.3340 from USD1.3394 on Friday evening.

Among commodities, Brent trades at USD105.00 per barrel from USD90.83 per barrel on Friday evening, while gold is worth USD5,095.70 per ounce from USD5,147.68 per ounce on Friday evening.

Monday's macro and corporate calendar includes consumer inflation expectations from the US at 1600 CET, while a three- and six-month Treasury bill auction is scheduled for 1630 CET.

By Maurizio Carta, Alliance News reporter

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