Real gross domestic product (GDP) in the United States grew at an annualized rate of 2.0%, according to the advance estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). This follows a modest 0.5% increase in Q4 2025, which was hampered by the historic government shutdown last October and November.
In detail, government spending rebounded following the shutdown effect and private investment accelerated sharply, while household consumption slowed, tempering overall activity growth. Foreign trade also acted as a drag on GDP, as imports rose faster than exports.
The most compelling takeaway from this release is the significant acceleration in gross private domestic investment, which surged by 8.7%. Within this category, business investment in "equipment and structures" jumped 10.4%, marking its fastest pace in nearly three years.
Massive investments in AI are making a substantial contribution to US GDP growth. Spending on "computers and peripheral equipment" and "software" contributed as much to GDP growth as household consumption (1.09% versus 1.08%). This contribution is particularly striking given that the direct weight of these two segments is approximately twenty times smaller than that of consumption (3.7% versus 68% of GDP).
A significant portion of this investment is naturally funded by "hyperscalers," whose capex forecasts were revised upward following their Q1 results. Microsoft announced approximately $190bn in capex for 2026, Alphabet is targeting $180bn to $190bn, Amazon is maintaining a target near $200bn, and Meta projects $125bn to $145bn. At the midpoint, these four groups represent roughly $10bn in capex, or nearly 2.2% of the annualized US nominal GDP for Q1.
However, not all of this spending flows directly into US GDP. A portion of the value added for servers, chips, memory, electrical equipment, and components is created abroad, particularly in Asia, and thus leaks out through imports. The BEA noted that the rise in goods imports in Q1 was led by computers, peripherals, and parts.
Furthermore, these massive AI investments are not without consequences for the American consumer. The sudden surge in energy demand from data centers is driving electricity bills sharply higher (+5.4% in 2025) and, by contributing so significantly to growth, is also fueling inflationary pressures. This is pushing long-term bond yields higher and, ultimately, reducing household borrowing capacity.
Microsoft Corporation is the world's leader in the design, development and marketing of operating systems and software programs for PC's and servers. The group also builds and sells computer equipment. Net sales break down by activity as follows:
- sale of operating systems and application development tools (42.9%): primarily for servers (Azure, SQL Server, Windows Server, Visual Studio, System Center, GitHub, etc.) and (Windows);
- development of cloud-based software applications (37.7%): programs for productivity (Microsoft 365; Word, Excel, PowerPoint, Outlook, OneNote, Publisher and Access), integrated management and customer relationship management (Dynamics 365), online file sharing and management (OneDrive), and unified and collaborative communications (Microsoft Teams);
- other (19.4%): primarily sale of software licenses (Windows), tablets (Microsoft Surface), video game consoles and software (Xbox), computer accessories, etc.
The United States accounts for 51.3% of net sales.
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