The project would take the form of a one-page memorandum, consisting of 14 points, negotiated by Donald Trump's envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, with several Iranian officials, either directly or through mediators. Nothing has been finalized yet, but U.S. officials cited by Axios believe that discussions have never been this advanced since the start of the conflict.

The text reportedly provides for a declared end to the regional war, followed by a 30-day period dedicated to a more detailed agreement. Among the points under discussion are an Iranian moratorium on uranium enrichment, the duration of which remains to be determined, a progressive easing of U.S. sanctions, the release of several billion dollars in frozen Iranian funds, and a gradual lifting of restrictions around the Strait of Hormuz. Axios also reports that the parties are discussing an enhanced inspection regime, including snap UN inspections, as well as an Iranian commitment to never seek nuclear weapons.

However, the deal remains fragile. According to Axios, Washington believes that the Iranian leadership remains divided, which could complicate any lasting compromise. Several U.S. officials remain skeptical, especially as the Trump administration has previously shown optimism during earlier negotiation phases without achieving a result. The current project could therefore lead to a genuine de-escalation, but also to a mere suspension of the conflict: should discussions fail, the United States would reserve the right to reinstate their naval blockade or resume military operations.

The rumor sent indices soaring. The Euro STOXX 50 is jumping by more than 2.5%. Oil is accelerating its decline, with Brent crude falling below 106 USD per barrel.