Armed tensions involving Iran are dealing a fresh blow to an already weakened sector. For many months, luxury has been suffering from the disaffection of "aspirational consumers" - those occasional luxury buyers grappling with inflationary pressures.

The limits of recent price hikes and the slowdown in the Chinese market, which remains as vital as ever, are also acting as a long-term drag on sales volumes, despite the resilience of the ultra-wealthy clientele.

In Paris, Kering (-0.8%) and LVMH (-1.2%) are among the most notable decliners on the CAC 40, while Hermès manages to hold steady at break-even. Elsewhere in Europe, Burberry is down 1.3%.

The Dubai-Doha strategic axis paralyzed

While 2026 had started under favorable auspices thanks to Chinese New Year figures, this momentum was halted abruptly by Operation "Epic Fury," which grounded numerous aircraft in Dubai, Doha, and Saudi Arabia.

While this blockade impacts regional sales, it also has the consequence of affecting the spending of Middle Eastern clients abroad.

With Dubai serving as a hub between Europe and Asia, the flow of Asian tourists to the Old Continent is also expected to suffer.

A double "scissor effect" feared

In a note published this morning, Bernstein analysts point out that the Middle East has become a key region, accounting for approximately 6% of global sales. It is now the sixth-largest market in the world, behind Europe (30%), the Americas (28%), Asia (15%), China (12%), and Japan (9%).

Exposure is even higher (around 8%) for groups such as LVMH, Richemont, or Kering.

For its part, Oddo BHF is less concerned about the direct impact of hostilities than the indirect consequences of a sustained rise in energy prices. The brokerage explains it fears a double "scissor effect": first at the level of the middle class, whose purchasing power could melt away with soaring gasoline prices, and second among the ultra-rich, impacted by the fall of financial markets.

Perspectives remain uncertain

Despite fundamentals deemed solid by Oddo, with growth expected around 4% for the sector in the first quarter of 2026, uncertainty dominates.

Bernstein emphasizes that if the conflict drags on, the entire ecosystem will be affected, including a decline in travel (which represents 30% of luxury sales), a drop in consumer confidence, fears of attacks, and an increased risk of recession.

The market's verdict is, in any case, final: since the beginning of the year, the STOXX Europe Luxury 10 index has now posted a 16% drop, whereas the broader STOXX Europe 600 index is still managing to scrape a 1.2% gain.