A return of Lufthansa shares to Germany's blue-chip DAX index is far from a done deal. Longtime index expert Uwe Streich of Landesbank Baden-Württemberg describes the race as a "photo finish." "It's neck and neck," the equity strategist told Reuters on Thursday. For months, it looked as if the airline would safely climb back into the DAX in March after a six-year absence. The top candidate for relegation was online retailer Zalando. However, strikes by pilots and cabin crew recently weighed on Lufthansa's stock, at least temporarily. That could tip the scales in Friday's review, which examines the volume-weighted share price performance throughout February. Lufthansa was a founding member of the DAX and remained part of the benchmark index for more than 30 years, before tumbling out in 2020 amid the turbulence of the pandemic. Streich now puts Lufthansa's chances of a comeback at just over 50 percent. The stock currently sits at exactly 33rd place in the DAX ranking—the position it needs, according to the exchange's "Fast Entry" rule, to move up from the MDAX to the premier league of German stocks, regardless of how others perform. But engineering group GEA, which joined the index six months ago alongside Scout24 as the most recent additions to the 40 largest German listed companies, has made strong gains and is now breathing down Lufthansa's neck. ZALANDO WITH A CUSHION If Lufthansa slips to 34th place by Friday evening, it would then depend on the "Regular Entry" rule, which requires that a current DAX member simultaneously falls to 48th place or lower. That scenario also appears unlikely. Even Zalando, currently the smallest DAX constituent with a free float market capitalization below five billion euros, still has a comfortable buffer above 48th place, Deutsche Bank analyst Carolin Raab wrote in a recent study. Likewise, the temporary slump in Scout24 shares—which have lost significant ground in recent weeks and fallen to their lowest level in a year and a half—will hardly be enough to erase the lead, according to experts. Deutsche Börse subsidiary Stoxx will announce the decision on Wednesday, March 4 at 10:00 p.m. The changes take effect March 23. The review will also impact the MDAX and SDAX. According to a study by J.P. Morgan, Schaeffler and Deutz are likely to move up into the MDAX, with Salzgitter also having strong chances. They could replace Teamviewer, Carl Zeiss Meditec, and Fielmann in that index. (Reporting by Alexander Hübner, editing by Thomas Seythal)