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| This week's gainers and losers |
Gainers: Howmet Aerospace +9.05%: The aircraft parts manufacturer reported excellent results despite its customer Boeing reducing orders for its best-selling programs. Demand is very strong for engine products and fastening systems. Expectations have been revised upwards, with annual sales now expected between $7.4 and $7.48 billion, compared with the previous range of $7.23 and $7.38 billion. A $2 billion share buyback program was also announced. Air Products & Chemicals +7.95%: The industrial gases producer soared by almost 9% on Thursday, returning to its levels of the end of last year after reporting robust results for the third quarter of its financial year. Sales were slightly down at $2.98 billion, but profitability was up, supported by price increases. The Group is confident for the future and has confirmed its annual forecasts, including earnings per share growth in the 6-9% range. Centene +6.83%: The healthcare services provider had a good first half and raised its annual targets. Revenues are expected to range between $155 and $157 billion, compared with a previous estimate of $147.5 to $150.5 billion. The company is confident for the rest of the year, whereas the market had been dreading this publication. Centene is one of the leading health insurance companies in the US, with a market capitalization of $41 billion. Paypal +6.33%: The payments specialist once again raised its full-year targets after a good second quarter thanks to higher interest on customer balances and branded payments, notably Braintree and Venmo. Profits rose by 10% to $1.13 billion, while revenues climbed by 8% to $7.9 billion. Earnings per share are expected to grow between 13 and 17% this year, compared with a previous estimate of between 5 and 10%. Meta Platforms ##VARIA_10547141 #: The owner of the Facebook, Whatsapp, Instagram and Messenger applications exceeded expectations with second-quarter revenues up 22% to $39.1 billion. Operating income soared by 58% to $14.8 billion. The group is beginning to reap the rewards of using AI for targeting, ranking and delivery systems for digital ads on its platforms, and is looking forward to strong demand for ads. Finally, Mark Zuckerberg is very confident about the coming quarters and believes that "Meta AI is on track to become the world's most widely used AI assistant by the end of the year. St. James's Place +23.85%: The British financial services company announces a £32.9 million share buyback program following very good half-year figures. Profits rose to £165.1 million, compared with £161.6 million the previous year. Fee and commission income rises to £1.60 billion. Next +7.54%: The British clothing retailer raised its full-year profit forecast after posting better-than-expected sales (+3.2%) in the second quarter. Full-year pre-tax profits of £980 million are now expected, compared with the previous forecast of £960 million. Full-price sales in the second quarter exceeded expectations, increasing by 3.2% year-on-year. Rolls-Royce +5%: The aircraft engine manufacturer announces a resumption of dividend payments for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic. Profit forecasts for the year are raised after good results. Operating profit for the first half doubles to £1.15 billion, compared with £673 million the previous year. Sales increase by 18% to £8.9 billion. Losers: QXO, Inc -84.76%: The provider of business management software solutions recorded the steepest fall on the stock market. This follows the announcement that some of its shareholders had put a massive volume of shares up for sale. On Monday evening, QXO announced the filing of a prospectus supplement authorizing the resale of nearly 789.5 million shares. This quantity includes outstanding shares, shares resulting from the conversion of preferred shares, as well as shares resulting from the exercise of warrants. The selling pressure anticipated by this announcement is likely to have had a negative effect, causing the share price to fall. Moderna -29.1% The biotech company has cut 2024 sales forecasts for its COVID-19 and respiratory syncytial virus vaccines by up to 25% to $1 billion, mainly due to weak prospects in the EU. The company posted a net loss of $1.3 billion in the second quarter, and saw its sales fall by more than 30% year-on-year. In addition, it has revised its sales outlook downwards to an estimated range of between $3 and $3.5 billion for the rest of the year. The downturn is attributed to slower negotiations with the EU on contracts for the COVID-19 vaccine, and an increasingly competitive environment. Despite this, Moderna is counting on its new mRNA and RSV mRESVIA vaccines to restore growth. Intel -31.48%: The semiconductor manufacturer posted a drastic 85% year-on-year drop in earnings per share, against forecasts of a 23% decline. Sales fell slightly by 100 basis points. The company announced a restructuring plan, including cost reductions, a cut of over 15% in its workforce and the suspension of its dividend from the fourth quarter. These radical measures are being taken with the aim of strengthening the competitiveness of its foundry business in the face of TSMC, and catching up in AI. The Group also plans to make massive investments in plant construction and expansion in the USA. |
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| Commodities |
| Energy: The price of crude oil continues to fall, for the fourth consecutive week. Wednesday's buying spurt, triggered by a sharp rise in tensions in the Middle East, was not enough to reverse the trend. The death of the Hamas leader in Iran rekindled the risk of escalation between Iran and Israel. But for the time being, the market is relegating these tensions to the background and focusing on demand and the global economic slowdown. At the same time, the OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee met and recommended no change in the enlarged cartel's policy. In terms of prices, Brent crude is trading down at around USD 79.70, while US WTI is trading at around USD 76.60 a barrel. Metals: Consolidation continues in the industrial metals segment. The latest Chinese statistics have done little to arouse financial interest in metals, explaining the lethargy of copper, which is trading in London at USD 9052 (spot price). Gold, on the other hand, is doing well thanks to a combination of rising risk aversion and falling US bond yields. The barbarian relic is close to its all-time high, trading at around USD 2462. Agricultural products: Improved crop prospects in the United States are weighing on grain prices in Chicago. The lowering of yield forecasts in Ukraine has not changed the situation: prices continue to fall, with a bushel of wheat at 530 cents (September expiry) and a bushel of corn at 400 cents. |
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| Macroeconomics |
| Atmosphere: Never happy. Investors could have been pleased by the confirmation of a first rate cut in the US in September, or even of two further easings by the end of the year. They might have been excited by the fact that, for once, the bond market seemed to be in agreement with the equity market: the fact that the US 10-year yield fell below the 4% mark attests to this. But no! The spectre of an economic slowdown has suddenly reared its ugly head, sending tensions soaring. Between mediocre US statistics, political and trade tensions, China's non-recovery and consumers starting to suffer, the list of headwinds is growing. The monthly US employment report, published today, shows that non-farm payrolls rose by 114,000 against expectations for 175,000, the unemployment rate reached 4.3% against expectations for 4.1%, and hourly wages rose by 0.2% against expectations for 0.3%. In Europe, the Bank of England joined the ECB in cutting rates to help the recovery. In Asia, Japan had a difficult week after the BOJ tightened its monetary policy. Widely anticipated, the decision nonetheless caused the Tokyo Stock Exchange to plunge, stunned by the implications of the forthcoming narrowing of the spread between US and Japanese rates, synonymous with a rise in the yen and an upheaval in the carry trade. Crypto: Bitcoin is down over 5% this week, and is now trading at around $64,800. Very low volumes were recorded on Bitcoin Spot ETFs in the United States, a sign that institutional investors have shunned BTC this week. Ethereum Spot ETFs, which were launched on July 23, fared less well, with negative net outflows of $115 million. Ether (ETH) is down 3.56%, having already fallen 7.5% last week. As a result, ETH is down to around $3,150, and is now more than 50% away from its all-time high of $4,800 at the end of 2021. Solana (SOL) is down 11% at $164, and Binance Coin (BNB) is down 1.6% at $574. |
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| Things to read this week | ||||||
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*The weekly movements of indexes and stocks displayed on the dashboard are related to the period ranging from the open on Monday to the sending time of this newsletter on Friday. The weekly movements of commodities, precious metals and currencies displayed on the dashboard are related to a 7-day rolling period from Friday to Friday, until the sending time of this newsletter. These assets continue to quote on weekends. |
