Weekly market update: Central banks reappear on the scene

Wall Street soared to new heights this week, buoyed by the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. Meanwhile, European stock markets continued to falter. The eurozone's economic outlook remains troubling, which might push the European Central Bank to lower rates again in December. Despite this possibility, the market remains fragile, particularly due to Germany's economic struggles and political turmoil in France. The threat of government censure and the potential failure to pass next year's budget are adding to the tensions.

Weekly variations* FTSE 100 8,287  +0.31% MELROSE INDUSTRIES P... +9.04% JD SPORTS FASHION PL... +8.92% AIRTEL AFRICA PLC +7.49% THE BERKELEY GROUP H... -4.03% BAE SYSTEMS PLC -7.99% KINGFISHER PLC -16.07% DOW JONES INDUST... 44,910.65  +1.39% NASDAQ 100 20,930.37  +0.74% S&P 500 6,032.38  +1.06% GOLD US$2,650.33  -2.55% WTI US$68.11  -4.32% EURO / US DOLLAR US$1.06  +0.95%

This week's gainers and losers

Gainers: Direct Line Insurance +48.61%: The British insurer has turned down a £3.28bn offer from rival Aviva. The offer, which still represents a 60% premium over last week's price, is considered insufficient. Last March, the British insurer had already rejected an attempt to acquire Belgian insurer Ageas. Renewi +38.33%: Asset manager Macquarie has offered to buy the British waste management specialist for £700.9m. The Australian had already tried approaches last year. Dr. Martens +22.34%: The shoe brand is optimistic for the autumn-winter season. Forecasts have been confirmed, a new CEO has been appointed and results for the quarter were broadly in line with expectations. Rivian Automotive +19.43%: The electric vehicle manufacturer has received conditional approval for a $6.6bn loan from the US Department of Energy to build a large plant in Georgia. Ross Stores +6.01%: The second-largest discount clothing and accessories retailer is confident: it has raised its expectations for the year despite a subdued Q3 and the overall slowdown in consumer discretionary spending. Also, the current CEO will be replaced by the former CEO of Boot Barn. Copart +1.1%: The auction specialist has published excellent results for the first quarter of its financial year. The share price is at an all-time high. Losers: Symbotic -30.64%: The warehouse automation company has delayed the publication of its annual report due to ‘significant weaknesses’ in the internal control of its financial reporting. Walmart holds a 14.5% stake. Dell -11.52%: The technology group reported results below consensus estimates. Targets for the current quarter are too conservative: the prospect of a market recovery has once again been postponed. Autodesk -9.14% : The software publisher for digital design and creation had no room for error given its capitalisation. Third-quarter results were decent, but not above expectations. Investors were hoping for better. HP -7.08%: The Californian technology group disappointed despite strong demand for its printers and AI. Forecasts are below expectations. Workday -6.63%: The financial management and human resources software provider expects subscription revenues to fall short of expectations as customers cut back on investment. Reddit -4.08%: A recent software update caused an outage that prevented tens of thousands of people from accessing the social media platform on Thursday.

Commodities

Energy : The ceasefire announced between Israel and Hezbollah contributed to a fall in oil prices this week. As geopolitical tension eased, part of the risk premium was eroded, prompting investors to adopt a wait-and-see attitude ahead of the OPEC+ meeting, initially scheduled for this weekend but now postponed until December 5. This meeting could possibly lead to a postponement of the production increase, given the current low prices. Brent crude is trading at around USD 72 a barrel, while US WTI is at USD 68.90. Metals : Base metal prices remained relatively stable this week, with the exception of zinc, which climbed to USD 3130 (cash) in London. Bullish pressure is also being felt across the industrial metals spectrum, largely due to uncertainties surrounding US trade policy under the Trump administration, which wants to tighten tariffs on US imports. Gold, for its part, fell back, penalized by the rise in the dollar. Agricultural products: After the surge in cocoa prices, it is now coffee's turn to rise significantly. This rise is the result of a global supply shortfall, combined with growing concerns about weather conditions in Brazil, the main producer. This upward momentum has pushed up the price of Arabica coffee.

Macroeconomics

Atmosphere : 25, no more. In the United States, GDP posted solid quarterly growth of 2.8%, confirming the health of the American economy. Inflation, measured by the PCE Core index, came in at +2.8% in October, in line with expectations, but up slightly by 0.1 points on September. Barring any major surprises concerning the CPI (expected on December 11) or job creation (NFP expected on December 6), the central scenario for the Federal Reserve's next meeting, on December 18, remains a 25 basis point cut in key rates. In Europe, inflation figures for November were in line with expectations, but still too high for the ECB to consider a significant rate cut in ten days' time. The eurozone is also likely to limit itself to a modest easing of 25 basis points. Crypto : Bitcoin (BTC) remains below the psychological threshold of $100,000 this week. The cryptocurrency has been experiencing high volatility since Monday, after hitting a new all-time high of $99,700 last week. A new narrative in the ecosystem: the underperformance of ether (ETH) relative to bitcoin in recent months could be coming to an end. Indeed, the second most valuable cryptocurrency on the market is up more than 4% at $3,600 this week, while bitcoin is down 1% at $97,000. Spot ETFs are following the same trend. These exchange-traded products backed by the bitcoin price posted net outflows of $500 million, while those based on ether recorded net inflows of $130 million. As a reminder, the ether has not yet caught up with its all-time high of $4,800, reached at the end of 2021, while bitcoin has already shattered its former record for several months. Will we see ether's return to favor? Find out in the coming months.

Central banks reappear on the scene The stock market divergence between the US and Europe was cemented in November. With corporate earnings and political drama behind us, attention shifts back to interest rates. Most investors anticipate the US Federal Reserve will lower rates at its December 18 meeting. However, maintaining the current rate is still a possibility. Two key events could sway this decision next week: a speech by the Fed chairman on Wednesday and the release of US employment data for November on Friday. Adding some spice to the week, quarterly results from Prosus, Salesforce, and Marvell are on the horizon. Wishing all our readers a pleasant weekend.

Things to read this week

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*The weekly movements of indexes and stocks displayed on the dashboard are related to the period ranging from the open on Monday to the sending time of this newsletter on Friday. The weekly movements of commodities, precious metals and currencies displayed on the dashboard are related to a 7-day rolling period from Friday to Friday, until the sending time of this newsletter. These assets continue to quote on weekends.