The latest twist in the Middle Eastern saga keeping financial markets on edge and fuel prices artificially elevated is every bit as opaque as the earlier ones. Donald Trump has now indefinitely delayed the end of the ceasefire with Iran, despite the apparent cancellation of talks that had been due to take place yesterday and today. Why? Tehran is said to be unable to put forward acceptable emissaries because the regime is "seriously fractured", a claim that is not hard to believe given the number of senior figures eliminated since the conflict began. Tehran, meanwhile, insists that US demands are unreasonable, while churning out a steady stream of more or less successful ironic memes on social media.

Although much of the commentary has centred on Donald Trump's latest reversals, which are hardly out of character, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz remains the real source of the biggest macroeconomic shockwaves. The pressure on energy prices, fertilisers and a range of other commodities and raw materials continues to build. Brent crude briefly climbed back above the symbolic USD 100 a barrel mark a few hours ago, only to fall back to USD 97 shortly afterwards. The Revolutionary Guards' news agency said the United States might be prepared to soften its position in order to reopen the strait. Propaganda, clearly, remains in plentiful supply on all sides. Adding another layer of intrigue, Donald Trump suggested that the US Navy had seized a vessel carrying weapons from China to Iran. It raises the question of whether Xi Jinping is playing a more ambiguous game than publicly acknowledged.

The renewed rise in uncertainty is clearly visible in the VIX volatility index. After eight straight sessions of decline between 8 and 17 April, it has moved higher again over the past two days. That reflects less concern about a widening of the conflict than fears of a more severe supply shock feeding through into prices, and therefore into headline inflation. Equity markets have reacted in kind, with indices also falling over the past two sessions. As has been the case for several weeks, Europe is feeling the strain more acutely than the United States, for two main reasons. First, the continent is far more exposed to the energy theme because it remains much more dependent on imported oil. Second, this side of the Atlantic has far fewer listed technology groups, depriving Europe of part of the momentum that has powered the recent rally in the United States, and to some extent in Asia as well. Since Monday, the Nasdaq 100's gains for 2026 (+4.9%) have once again moved ahead of those posted by the STOXX Europe 600 (+4.1%), whereas the broad European index was still 7% ahead on 30 March.

That said, the United States is far from insulated from the oil shock, and Donald Trump is well aware of it. As of 21 April 2026, filling up a car in Washington costs 67% more than it did on 17 February. Seven months ahead of the midterm elections, that is politically toxic. The White House is trying to cushion the blow by relaxing embargoes and maritime rules, but so far the effect is barely noticeable.

Today's market agenda is dominated by the long list of corporate results due in Europe and the United States. In Europe, investors are watching L'Oréal, ABB, EssilorLuxottica, Danone, Bureau Veritas, Carrefour and Rexel, before attention shifts to Tesla, GE Vernova and IBM in the United States. The macroeconomic calendar is relatively light. On the central bank front, the ECB is not expected to make any move on rates at the end of the month, according to a well-sourced report in the Financial Times. In the United States, Kevin Warsh's confirmation hearing as the likely successor to Jerome Powell at the head of the Fed was anything but straightforward, although he came through it reasonably well. Warsh combined reassuring remarks about the Fed's independence from the White House with firmer political positioning, notably by refusing to say that Donald Trump lost the 2020 election and by blaming the post-Covid inflation surge on monetary policy errors. In any case, he made no attempt to hide the fact that he intends to mark a clear break with the current policy stance, which will come as no surprise to financial markets.

Trading across Asia-Pacific is mixed, with markets moving in no clear common direction. Hong Kong is down 1.3%, weighed down by losses in large Chinese technology stocks such as Alibaba, amid doubts about their ability to turn heavy AI investment into meaningful profits. Japan's Nikkei 225 eventually slipped into negative territory (-0.4%), while South Korea's KOSPI held up better (+0.5%). India (-0.6%) and Australia (-1%) posted steeper declines. Europe is expected to open slightly higher, while US futures remain firmly in positive territory, another sign that Wall Street already seems inclined to look past the latest tensions.

Today's economic highlights:

See the full calendar here.

  • GBP / USD: US$1.35
  • Gold: US$4,768.5
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): US$97.64
  • United States 10 years: 4.29%
  • BITCOIN: US$77,929.9

In corporate news:

See more news from UK listed companies here

Analyst Recommendations:

  • Rio Tinto Plc: Berenberg maintains its hold recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 88 to USD 87.
  • Standard Life Plc: Mediobanca maintains its outperform recommendation and raises the target price from GBX 894 to GBX 937.
  • Marshalls Plc: RBC Capital maintains its sector perform recommendation and reduces the target price from GBX 195 to GBX 170.
  • Auto Trader Group Plc: Barclays downgrades to market weight from overweight and reduces the target price from GBP 8.25 to GBP 6.05.
  • Barclays Plc: Citi maintains its neutral recommendation and raises the target price from GBP 4.25 to GBP 4.50.
  • The British Land Company Plc: AlphaValue/Baader Europe maintains its reduce recommendation and raises the target price from GBX 380 to GBX 387.
  • Experian Plc: Hedgeye Risk Management upgrades to watch list from short.
  • Associated British Foods Plc: JP Morgan maintains its neutral recommendation and reduces the target price from GBP 19.40 to GBP 17.80.
  • Shell Plc: Scotiabank maintains its sector outperform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 91 to USD 122.
  • Standard Chartered Plc: Goldman Sachs maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from GBX 2135 to GBX 2165.