After his arrival in the White House on January 20, the historic date for the handover between presidents, the US indices appreciated, albeit more sharply than in the wake of his election. Our trio of S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 indices rose by +1%, +0.78% and +1.66% respectively, compared with +2.53%, +3.57% and +2.74% on November 6. We're going to see that some new Trump Trades have emerged, while others have turned out to be rather a losing bet.

Since our November analysis, remember that the S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Select Industry and the S&P 500 Banks Index were the indices that rose the most after the President's election, being considered beneficiaries of the economic growth forecast by the Trump administration. On these indices, the trend is still upwards, but much less marked than at the time of the election, and certainly not for the simple reason of the new American president. Indeed, the banks, which are the first to publish, posted exceptional figures, while the price of a barrel of oil rose sharply at the end of December, boosting our indices.

On the equities front, the strongest recent gains linked to the Trump Trade are private prison operators such as The Geo Group and CoreCivic, which, after exploding by 42% and 29% respectively after the election, have recovered 26% and 6% since January 1.

The other winning bet concerned Tesla, whose boss Musk is still at the President's side. The share price is up 3.06%, having already climbed 93.25% in the last three months. This may come as a surprise, given Donald Trump's anti-electricity bias.

The Trump Trade also focused on mortgage lenders Freddie Mac (Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corp) and Fannie Mae (Federal National Mortgage Association), two groups under state supervision since their 2008 debacle, which are set to return to private ownership. The price of the former rose by 14.88% on January 20, while the latter appreciated by 25.77%. These increases have enabled them to reach the insane performance of +86.6% and +110.52% respectively since January 1, 2025.

Finally, Bitcoin has been a big winner on the back of Trump's promises to halt the Securities and Exchange Commission's anti-crypto stance, reduce regulation and build a government stockpile that true believers hope will grow and be treated as currency reserves, like gold. Bitcoin and the second cryptocurrency, ether, have both risen by around 40% since the election. You probably won't have missed the launch of the cryptocurrency TRUMP, which also went on a speculative spree.

Other bets didn't work out so well, however. The potential recovery in small caps took a beating. The Russell 2000 index returned all its post-election bounce. Indeed, the scenario of continued monetary easing is threatened by possible inflationary pressure stemming from the US President's measures. This could force the Fed to leave its key rates high, penalizing investment and small players. Finally, Trump Media & Technology has jumped 17% since the beginning of January, but has remained stable since the election. It's not clear how the shareholders of DJT, the company's stock symbol, will actually make money with Trump in the White House.