Futures pointed sharply higher Tuesday morning, with the Dow Jones up 1.28%, the S&P 500 gaining 1.42%, and the Nasdaq 100 leading the rally. Tesla, Apple, and Alphabet surged. Even Trump's own media company basked in the glow, up more than 10% on plans to pivot toward cryptocurrency.
 
This is the theater of Trump-era economics: policy as performance, uncertainty as a weapon, and markets dancing on a string. Investors have learned to parse the subtext, reading volatility as opportunity. But beneath the rally lies a deeper unease. The tariff threat may be postponed, not canceled. The Fed, stuck in a delicate balancing act, is watching inflation, debt, and Trump's shadow economics with visible discomfort.
 
It's tempting to shrug off this cycle as déjà vu. But repetition doesn't make it any less risky. Trump's revived trade brinkmanship comes at a moment of fragility - America's debt is swelling, and consumer confidence remains cautious. His tax bill, just passed by the House, may further balloon the deficit.

The days after public holidays on Wall Street tend to follow a familiar script, especially in spring. Corporate announcements are scarce, the news wires quiet - casualties of a long weekend. Analysts and PR officers, it seems, opted for pints over press releases. In short, there is even less to say than usual. Still, European markets managed to put on a show yesterday. On Monday, the Stoxx Europe 600 regained nearly 1% after Donald Trump announced that, after all, the deadline for trade negotiations would indeed be July 9th. The broad European index returned to 550 points, the level it had been at before Friday's fall and Monday's rise. It was almost a zero-sum game.

With little in the way of fresh news and the week's headline events - Nvidia's earnings on Wednesday and America's PCE inflation figures on Friday - still pending, markets have seized upon the dollar as a placeholder. That the greenback has dropped nearly 10% against the euro this year has not discouraged a wave of tedious analysis. One economist, whose identity will be spared, intoned that "any new announcement on tariffs could increase volatility in currency markets and cause the dollar to fall." Thank you. Another strategist, presumably excluded from the weekend's social calendar, contributed that "the dollar could go up or down depending on announcements in the coming days." Insightful (Sarcasm alert).
 
Christine Lagarde has opted for a livelier tone. The ECB president has called Donald Trump's return to the White House a "unique opportunity" to advance the euro's global role - implicitly at the expense of the dollar's reserve status. Christine, you might have a hard time getting through US customs next time with statements like that. Unless Donald finds you bold enough to offer you Jerome Powell's job next year.
 
Absent corporate earnings, markets will spend the coming weeks parsing macroeconomic entrails: rates, growth, debt, and the currency at the centre of it all. Bond markets, which tend to sniff out stress before equity traders do, remain alert. Yields on ten- and thirty-year Treasuries slipped modestly over the weekend, to 4.48% and 4.99% respectively.
 
Today brings a quad-pack of American data - durable goods orders, house prices, consumer confidence, and regional manufacturing - that may move the needle. In Asia-Pacific, equities are mixed: Japan and Australia edge higher, while South Korea, Taiwan and India retreat. China's carmakers, embroiled in a margin-sapping price war led by BYD, are dragging the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite down. European markets are in the green.

Today's economic highlights:

On today's agenda: new car registrations in the European Union 27; in Switzerland, real export figures; in Germany, the harmonized CPI of the European Union; economic confidence; in the United States, durable goods orders, the FHFA House Price Index MoM, and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence. See the full calendar here.

  • Dollar index: 99,267
  • Gold: $3,296
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): $63.69 (WTI) $60.93
  • United States 10 years: 4.48%
  • BITCOIN: $109,695

In corporate news:

  • Toyota relocates part of its GR Corolla production to the UK for export to the U.S.
  • Volkswagen executives found guilty of fraud in diesel emissions scandal.
  • Tesla sees a 49% drop in EU sales last month.
  • SpaceX accelerates Starship development.
  • End of free baggage allowance: Southwest Airlines will charge $35 for the first checked bag, according to the WSJ.

Analyst Recommendations:

  • Block, Inc.: BNP Paribas Exane upgrades to outperform from neutral with a price target raised from USD 52 to USD 72.
  • Coreweave, Inc.: Barclays downgrades to equalweight from overweight with a price target raised from USD 70 to USD 100.
  • Cummins Inc.: Goldman Sachs upgrades to buy from neutral with a price target raised from USD 410 to USD 431.
  • Informatica Inc.: Baptista Research downgrades to underperform from buy with a target price reduced from USD 33.70 to USD 23.50.
  • Kbr, Inc.: Goldman Sachs downgrades to neutral from buy with a target price of USD 55.
  • Leidos Holdings, Inc.: Baird downgrades to neutral from outperform with a price target reduced from USD 176 to USD 163.
  • National Storage Affiliates Trust: Morgan Stanley downgrades to underweight from equal weight with a price target reduced from USD 39 to USD 30.
  • Netflix, Inc.: Baptista Research upgrades to outperform from underperform with a price target raised from USD 1118.70 to USD 1369.
  • United States Steel Corporation: Jefferies downgrades to hold from buy with a target price raised from USD 50 to USD 55.
  • Wingstop Inc.: Truist Securities upgrades to buy from hold with a price target raised from USD 274 to USD 400.
  • Coinbase Global, Inc.: Jefferies maintains its hold recommendation with a price target raised from USD 210 to USD 260.
  • Ge Vernova Inc.: Deutsche Bank maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 405 to USD 546.
  • Marvell Technology Group Ltd: Morgan Stanley maintains its market weight recommendation and reduces the target price from 90 to USD 70.
  • Wingstop Inc.: Truist Securities upgrades to buy from hold with a price target raised from USD 274 to USD 400.