Had Donald Trump been in charge of the Fed, the speech he delivered a few hours ago would have been described as hawkish, in other words more aggressive than expected and therefore less supportive for equity markets. After blowing hot and cold for weeks, the US president handed stock markets a sizeable rebound on a plate at the start of the week by announcing that the war in Iran was nearing its end. Investors were therefore expecting a speech overnight to confirm that view, but things did not go exactly to plan.

Instead of saying that the United States was close to a ceasefire agreement with Iran, Trump reverted to a more combative tone, promising to strike Iran "very hard" in the coming weeks if nothing changes in Tehran. He even added: "Over the next two to three weeks, we are going to send them back to the Stone Age, where they belong." The more things change, the more they stay the same.

The US president also used the occasion to settle scores with his allies. "To those countries that cannot secure fuel, many of which refused to take part in the beheading of Iran, which we had to do ourselves, I have a suggestion. First, buy oil from the United States of America, we have it in abundance. We have so much of it. And second, find the courage that you lack… Go into the Strait and take it. Protect it. Use it for yourselves. Iran has been virtually decimated. The hardest part is done." For Trump, this was both a way of selling the war and its consequences to a sceptical domestic audience and of regaining the initiative as the conflict drags on. At the same time, it reinforced his preferred narrative: America is forced to do the dirty work while everyone else hides under the table. It is all rather obvious, but skilfully done.

Even so, the 20-minute speech delivered overnight reversed the sense of relief that had allowed equity indices to rebound, oil to fall and rates to ease. At the time of writing, oil is rising again, moving back above USD 100 a barrel for both WTI and Brent, while the yield on 10-year US Treasuries has risen to 4.38% now. The speech was clearly seen as negative relative to the market's new preferred scenario: a rapid ceasefire and a gradual reopening of Hormuz, steadily pulling oil prices lower and limiting the inflationary impact of the conflict.

Before that reversal, Wall Street had posted a second straight session of strong gains. The S&P 500 has now recovered 3.7% over two trading days. The Stoxx Europe 600 has rebounded by 4% over three sessions. This morning, things are more difficult in Asia, where markets are feeling the impact of Trump's speech. These swings remain part of daily life for investors. In absolute terms, the conflict is closer to its end than its beginning, but its negative economic impact remains powerful. That is where things stand this morning: the session is getting under way on a bearish note once again, even if investors are tempted to place a few chips here and there so as not to miss the turning point, which historically generates the fastest and largest gains.

Elsewhere in the news, the US administration is preparing to impose a 25% tariff on finished goods made from imported steel and aluminium, according to The Wall Street Journal. India's central bank is continuing to deploy resources to curb speculation against the rupee. The private credit market is also still being watched nervously after KKR, in turn, restricted redemptions in a fund aimed at retail investors, Bloomberg has reported. On today's macro agenda, weekly US jobless claims are likely to attract attention. I should also point out that this is the last trading session of the week on most European markets, which will not reopen until Tuesday 7 April. In the United States, Wall Street will be closed tomorrow but open on Easter Monday.

In Asia-Pacific, indices are heading lower again. Losses are particularly sharp in the markets that had rebounded most strongly. Japan is down more than 2% and South Korea by more than 5%. Australia is off 1%. Despite yesterday's 5.1% surge, the MSCI AC Asia Pacific index is still showing a negative performance for the week at this stage. Europe is expected to open lower.

Today's economic highlights:

On today's agenda: the balance of trade in Australia; the year-on-year inflation rate in Switzerland; the month-on-month retail sales in Italy; in the United States, initial jobless claims, exports, balance of trade, imports, and the goods trade balance advance; the balance of trade in Canada; Fed Logan's speech in the United States. See the full calendar here.

  • GBP / USD: US$1.32
  • Gold: US$4,599.54
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): US$107.53
  • United States 10 years: 4.38%
  • BITCOIN: US$66,596.9

In corporate news:

  • Worldwide Healthcare Trust announced that its portfolio company, Apellis Pharmaceuticals, received a $5.6 billion takeover proposal from Biogen.
  • Rightmove faced a GBP1.5 billion class action lawsuit over alleged excessive subscription fees.
  • GSK announced that its partner Shionogi acquired Pfizer's 11.7% stake in ViiV Healthcare for about $2.13 billion.
  • The Berkeley Group announced it would pause new land acquisitions and rephase its 2035 strategy due to prolonged housing market weakness.
  • Energean reported delays in its $1 billion Katlan gas project due to the Iran war but highlighted its diversification into West Africa.
  • Shell is in advanced talks with Venezuela to expand its gas development projects, including the Dragon and Loran fields.
  • Indra has launched the process to appoint a new chair of its board of directors.
  • Bayer is in talks with European governments to raise drug prices in response to US restrictions.
  • Mutares is planning a €105 million capital increase to fund its global expansion.
  • Avolta has secured a contract at Jacksonville Airport in the United States.
  • Amazon is in talks to acquire the satellite group Globalstar in order to compete with Elon Musk’s Starlink, according to the FT.
  • General Motors saw a 10% drop in US sales in the first quarter.
  • Intel plans to invest an additional $15 million in SambaNova, according to official documents.
  • KKR is limiting buybacks within its unlisted private credit fund for retail investors, according to Bloomberg.
  • IBM has signed a partnership with ARM Holding.
  • Biogen has launched a $5.6 billion bid for Apellis Pharma.
  • Gilead has extended its takeover bid for Arcellx.

See more news from UK listed companies here

Analyst Recommendations:

  • Antofagasta Plc: Berenberg maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from GBX 4300 to GBX 3700.
  • Anglo American Plc: Berenberg maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 26 to USD 24.
  • Astrazeneca Plc: Goldman Sachs maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from GBX 16496 to GBX 16600.
  • The Berkeley Group Holdings Plc: Stifel maintains its hold recommendation and reduces the target price from GBX 3740 to GBX 3200.
  • Shell Plc: Citi maintains its neutral recommendation and raises the target price from GBP 29.50 to GBP 35.50.
  • Coca-Cola Hellenic: Morgan Stanley maintains its overweight recommendation and reduces the target price from GBX 4800 to GBX 4700.
  • Wise Plc: Barclays maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from GBP 11.30 to GBP 11.40.
  • Alfa Financial Software Holdings Plc: Barclays maintains its overweight recommendation and reduces the target price from GBP 2.80 to GBP 2.50.
  • Sage Group Plc: Barclays maintains its underweight recommendation and reduces the target price from GBP 9 to GBP 8.50.
  • Hammerson Plc: Barclays maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from GBP 3.35 to GBP 3.60.
  • Unilever Plc: Hedgeye Risk Management downgrades to watch list from long.
  • Ashmore Group Plc: UBS maintains its neutral recommendation and reduces the target price from GBX 220 to GBX 205.