In a world gripped by uncertainty, few things are as destabilizing as indecision at the top. As the aerial war between Israel and Iran enters its second week, markets across the globe have taken a collective breath, waiting for a single individual - President Donald Trump - to tip the balance. His promise to decide within two weeks whether the U.S. will support Israel militarily has injected a twofold volatility into both geopolitics and global finance.

Trump's oscillation between diplomacy and intervention has left investors exposed to a rare blend of risk: the convergence of Middle East conflict, inflationary tariff shocks, and a hesitant Federal Reserve. While Tesla and tech stocks eke out gains, oil prices seesaw on fears of disruption, and traders scan headlines rather than earnings for direction. 

Yesterday, Wall Street was closed for Juneteenth, and it was a bad day for European stock markets. Caught up in the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran. Karoline Leavitt, the US president's spokesperson, read a message from Donald Trump to the press: "Based on the fact that there's a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks".

This measured response is more effective than it appears. It allows the US executive to regain control of the narrative and buy time. The main problem facing the White House in recent days is that it is being dictated to by Israel, while having to deal with deep internal divisions over the strategy to adopt. By setting this two-week deadline, Washington hopes to give itself a chance to regain the upper hand.

Financial markets remain tense at the prospect of the United States entering the military fray in the Middle East. European markets gave a good indication of the general mood. The Stoxx Europe 600 index fell for the eighth time in the last nine sessions. It is now just over 5% below its record high of March 3, although it is still up 5.5% for 2025. Luxury goods were again particularly affected yesterday, as they are on the front line of the current economic woes: weak recovery in China, fears about US growth and geopolitical tensions weighing on tourist flows.

Yesterday's news from Europe was marked by a series of central bank decisions, notably rate cuts by the Swiss National Bank, the Bank of Norway and the Bank of Sweden, while the Bank of England took no action.

Comments on the two-week reflection period eased the atmosphere somewhat. Oil reversed the upward trend that had taken it to nearly £79 a barrel yesterday for the first time since the end of January. European leading indicators are back in the green and Wall Street futures losses have narrowed. It doesn't take much to be happy in a context where bad news is flying thick and fast.

A somewhat trivial view, I admit, is to contrast these two weeks of supposed respite with the barrage of bad news at the moment: international trade on high alert, the Fed's gloomy forecasts for the US economy, the sword of Damocles hanging over us in the form of customs duties, and the management of US debt.

In the meantime, Asia-Pacific markets ended the week on a mixed note. Australia, Taiwan and Japan are down moderately, while India and South Korea were up quite significantly. Hong Kong bounced back by 1.2% after three sessions in the red. Europe rose, with the Stoxx Europe 600 up 0.7%. Futures on Wall Street are slightly up.

Today's economic highlights:

On today's agenda: The Philadelphia Fed business outlook and the leading index, business confidence and wages in France; retail sales excluding auto fuel in the United Kingdom; M3 money supply in the eurozone.

  • Dollar index: 98,600
  • Gold: $3,355
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): $76.76 (WTI) $73.86
  • United States 10 years: 4.39%
  • BITCOIN: $105,880

In corporate news:

  • Google faces a $4.74 billion antitrust fine in the EU while enhancing its AI video generator technology with YouTube.
  • Sanofi and Regeneron's Dupixent has received FDA approval for the treatment of bullous pemphigoid in the US.
  • Fox Corporation has expanded its sports broadcasting presence in Mexico by acquiring Caliente TV.
  • Home Depot has made a competing bid for GMS, according to the WSJ.

Analyst Recommendations:

  • Apple Inc.: First Shanghai Securities upgrades to buy from hold with a target price of USD 230.
  • Dow Inc.: Fermium Research LLC downgrades to hold from buy with a target price reduced from USD 35 to USD 30.
  • Permian Resources Corporation: Zacks upgrades to neutral from underperform with a price target raised from USD 11 to USD 18.
  • Coinbase Global, Inc.: President Capital Management Corp maintains its buy recommendation with a price target raised from USD 246 to USD 353.
  • Comcast Corporation: Rothschild & Co Redburn maintains a neutral recommendation with a price target reduced from USD 44 to USD 35.
  • Marvell Technology Group Ltd: Huatai Research maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from 70.30 to USD 85.20.
  • Permian Resources Corporation: Zacks upgrades to neutral from underperform with a price target raised from USD 11 to USD 18.
  • Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc.: Oppenheimer maintains its outperform recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 123 to USD 45.
  • The Gap, Inc.: Zacks maintains a neutral recommendation with a price target reduced from USD 28 to USD 22.