As America eased into the workweek after a long July holiday, markets opened with a nervous pulse. The fireworks may be over, but the aftershocks of Trump-era trade diplomacy are only beginning to crackle. Wednesday marks the deadline President Donald Trump set for "reviewing" trade ties—a euphemism for ultimatum.

Trump reaffirmed on Sunday that new tariff notices will be dispatched globally by July 9, with rates taking effect August 1. Countries perceived as sympathetic to the BRICS bloc—Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa—face an additional 10% surcharge, Donald added this morning. The base tariff rate, originally set in April at 10%, already helped plunge the Nasdaq into a bear market. Now, in peak summer trading season, investors are left squinting through fog: not only are the tariffs themselves vague, but the rules keep shifting. 

This unstable backdrop has not gone unnoticed by the markets. Futures for the Dow dipped 0.05%, the S&P fell 0.25%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped 0.42%. Tesla, however, was the day's main spectacle—falling 6% in premarket trading after Musk announced the creation of a U.S. political party. The "America First Party", a direct provocation to Trump, may excite Musk's followers, but it risks unnerving investors already wary of mixing moonshots with populism. It also threatens to overshadow the company's AI ambitions and long-awaited Robotaxi launch.

In the shadows of these headlines, the Federal Reserve's next move grows murkier. Traders have priced out a July rate cut, pushing expectations to September. The Fed, caught between Trump's tariff threats and a House-approved $3 trillion stimulus bill, must now navigate the tightrope between supporting growth and restraining inflation.

Investors can take comfort in strong labor data and corporate M&A—like Capgemini's $3.3 billion purchase of WNS. Beyond the trade front, geopolitics and energy markets are adding their own layers of uncertainty. Israel has dispatched negotiators to Qatar in pursuit of a Gaza ceasefire, while Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visits Washington to coordinate efforts with Trump. In oil markets, OPEC+ announced another production increase, softening prices but avoiding a major drop.

The macroeconomic calendar is relatively quiet, though key data points—China's inflation figures, the Fed's meeting minutes on Wednesday, and Australia's rate decision on Tuesday, will offer some insight into the global economic pulse.

In Asia, red dominates, except in South Korea, where the KOSPI ended up 0.3%. Australia, Hong Kong and India are just below zero, while losses were slightly higher in Japan (-0.6%) and Taiwan (-0.5%). Wall Street futures are trading in the red. European indices are mixed, with the Stoxx Europe 600 up 0.4%. 

Today's economic highlights:

See the full calendar here.

  • Dollar index: 97,055
  • Gold: $3,302
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): $68.40 (WTI) $66.22
  • United States 10 years: 4.33%
  • BITCOIN: $109,171

In corporate news:

  • Oracle is offering the US government a discount on its cloud services and software, according to the WSJ.
  • Pertamina, along with Exxon Mobil and Chevron, is set to sign a $34 billion memorandum of understanding with U.S. companies covering energy cooperation and agricultural imports including soybeans, corn, and cotton.
  • Capgemini will buy outsourcing firm WNS for $3.3 billion as part of AI push
  • Apple has appealed a $587 million EU antitrust fine, arguing that the European Commission overstepped its authority by enforcing restrictive rules on the App Store under the Digital Markets Act.
  • Valaris secured $760 million in drillship contracts from Occidental Petroleum's subsidiary Anadarko, including long-term deals for two of its vessels beginning in mid-to-late 2026.
  • Tesla CEO Elon Musk's plan to launch the 'America Party' escalated tensions with Donald Trump, prompting criticism over political distractions and triggering delays in related financial products like the Tesla ETF.
  • Apple saw its first quarterly growth in China smartphone sales in two years, up 8% in Q2, aided by promotional discounts but still trailing behind Huawei, which posted a 12% rise.
  • Jio BlackRock, a joint venture between Jio Financial Services and BlackRock, raised over $2.1 billion in its debut mutual fund offering from both institutional and retail investors.
  • The Trump administration is preparing new export rules to block AI chip shipments from firms like Nvidia to Malaysia and Thailand to prevent rerouting to China.
  • Yum China is expanding its use of AI tools such as the Q-Smart assistant to boost efficiency, reduce waste, and enhance customer service across its KFC and Pizza Hut restaurant operations.