It's earnings season on Wall Street, and the mood, despite geopolitical bravado and inflation jitters, is oddly celebratory. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures climbed to record highs Tuesday morning, buoyed by artificial intelligence hype, trillion-dollar portfolios, and the curious resilience of investor optimism in the face of economic uncertainty.

At the heart of this morning's surge is Nvidia, the chipmaker-turned-AI-bellwether whose decision to resume sales of its H20 AI chip to China sent its stock soaring 5% in premarket trading. That bounce ricocheted across the semiconductor sector, with AMD rising 4.9%.

Meanwhile, BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, announced that its assets under management reached a record-smashing $12.53 trillion in Q2. That's roughly half the U.S. GDP. Investors are clearly betting that, in a world grappling with shifting monetary policy and trade tensions, scale and stability remain king. Yet despite this milestone, BlackRock's shares fell 2.4%—a reminder that expectations in the world of high finance are as inflated as the assets they manage.

This optimism is playing out against a backdrop of uncertainty. President Trump, freshly reanimated on the trade front, has issued fresh tariff threats—this time toward Russia, if it doesn't end the war within 50 days. On Monday, he threatened the European Union and Mexico with 30% tariffs starting August 1, but the markets, for now, are shrugging. Traders appear more interested in his tone shift—Trump signaled a willingness to negotiate—as they price in the chance that political theater will give way to economic pragmatism.

Brussels has updated its list of retaliatory trade measures in case the current negotiations fail. The catalogue would cover €72 billion worth of goods, ranging from Boeing to Jack Daniel's and Ford. Europe wants to negotiate a British-style deal, i.e. 10% customs duties, while Donald Trump has set the bar at 30%. There are two weeks to go before the planned entry into force on 1 August, already dubbed ‘liberation day 2' by financiers who are still betting on the White House backing down (relatively). 

The real wildcard is inflation. June's U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, released this morning, paints a cautiously optimistic picture of inflation's path. Headline CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month, matching expectations, while core CPI increased just 0.2%, slightly below the anticipated 0.3%. On a year-over-year basis, headline CPI ticked up to 2.7%, slightly above estimates, but up from 2.4% in May. Core CPI held steady at 2.9%, aligning with forecasts. These figures suggest that while disinflation is ongoing, progress is uneven. The dip in core month-over-month inflation is a welcome sign for the Federal Reserve, indicating that price pressures in categories like housing and services may be gradually cooling. However, the uptick in headline inflation signals that energy and food remain volatile contributors. The data is unlikely to prompt immediate action from the Fed, but it keeps the door open for rate cuts later in the year—especially if labor market softening continues. Still, with core inflation stubbornly close to 3%, policymakers will want more consistent evidence before easing. Futures ticked up after the report. Markets may cheer the softer core print, but the Fed remains in a data-dependent wait-and-see mode. Current market odds for a July cut have faded, with September standing at a cautious 60%.

Earnings, too, are mixed. JPMorgan Chase saw steady trading after revising its 2025 net interest income outlook higher, while Wells Fargo's shares dipped despite a profit bump in Q2—thanks in part to lower loan loss provisions. And Trade Desk, a software company few outside of ad tech have heard of, skyrocketed 14.6% after news it would join the S&P 500, underscoring the importance of index inclusion in today's algorithmic markets.

In other news, China announced that its second-quarter GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year. This is slightly higher than expected, although the pace is slowing compared to the first quarter (5.4%). Industrial production offset weaker-than-expected consumption. Overall, this remains a good figure, although economists are still struggling to separate the underlying momentum from the spikes linked to expectations of higher tariffs in the future.

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 gained 0.3% at the close, while Australia's ASX rose 0.7%. China is struggling to get excited about its Q2 GDP, with Shanghai falling slightly while Hong Kong rose 0.5%. South Korea and India were up modestly, while Taiwan gained 0.9%, helped by indirect support from Nvidia. European markets are bullish.

Today's economic highlights:

On today's agenda: China's quarterly, yearly, and year-to-date GDP, along with industrial production and retail sales; In the eurozone, industrial production and the ZEW survey on expectations; In Germany, the ZEW survey on the current situation and expectations; In the United States, the CPI and the Empire Manufacturing index. See the full calendar here.

  • Dollar index: 97,805
  • Gold: $3,354
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): $69.21 (WTI) $66.91
  • United States 10 years: 4.40%
  • BITCOIN: $116,871

In corporate news:

  • JPMorgan Chase beat Q2 profit expectations, raised its 2025 net interest income forecast to $95.5 billion, and posted strong growth in trading and investment banking amid market volatility.
  • News Corp authorized a new $1 billion share repurchase program, increasing its total buyback authorization to $1.3 billion, with plans to accelerate repurchases after August.
  • State Street reported a 3.8% drop in Q2 profit as rising employee compensation costs offset gains from client asset fees, despite a 10.6% increase in assets under custody.
  • Apple is investing $500 million in MP Materials to source recycled rare earth magnets domestically, expand U.S. production capacity, and build a new recycling facility.
  • Nvidia and AMD expect U.S. licenses soon to resume AI chip sales to China, with Nvidia launching a compliant RTX Pro GPU and Chinese firms rushing to place orders.
  • Tesla officially entered the Indian market with a $70,000 Model Y amid high tariffs, opening its first showroom in Mumbai and planning further infrastructure expansion.
  • Citigroup reported a 25% rise in Q2 net income to $4 billion, driven by robust trading and investment banking revenue, beating analyst estimates.
  • BNY Mellon surpassed Q2 earnings expectations on a 17% jump in interest income and a 7% rise in fee revenue, marking its first quarter with revenue above $5 billion.
  • Wells Fargo posted a 12% increase in Q2 net income to $5.49 billion but lowered its full-year net interest income outlook to flat vs. prior growth forecast.
  • BlackRock hit a record $12.53 trillion in AUM in Q2, driven by market gains and cash inflows, while pivoting further toward private markets and tech services.
  • Tapestry raised its stake in recycled leather maker Gen Phoenix to 9.9% as part of a $15 million investment, aiming to appeal to eco-conscious Gen Z consumers.
  • Albertsons raised its annual sales forecast after stronger-than-expected Q1 earnings, citing steady demand for essentials despite keeping its profit outlook unchanged.
  • Uber partnered with Baidu to roll out thousands of autonomous vehicles in international markets outside the U.S. and China, with initial launches set for Asia and the Middle East.
  • Vertex Pharmaceuticals reached a reimbursement agreement with NHS England for Alyftrek.
  • Nvidia resumed sales of its H20 GPU in China with a compliant model.
  • Tesla launched Model Y sales in India, priced around $69,766.
  • Starbucks announced a shift in work policy, requiring four days a week in-office for corporate employees.

Analyst Recommendations:

  • Doordash, Inc.: Jefferies downgrades to hold from buy with a target price raised from USD 235 to USD 250.
  • Enphase Energy, Inc.: JP Morgan downgrades to neutral from overweight with a target price reduced from USD 64 to USD 37.
  • Freeport-Mcmoran Inc.: Morgan Stanley downgrades to equalwt from overwt with a target price raised from USD 45 to USD 54.
  • Hf Sinclair Corporation: Raymond James upgrades to strong buy from market perform with a target price of USD 54.
  • Marathon Petroleum Corporation: Raymond James upgrades to outperform from strong buy with a price target raised from USD 188 to USD 200.
  • Realty Income Corporation: Wolfe Research downgrades to peerperform from outperform.
  • Steris Plc: Morgan Stanley upgrades to overweight from equal weight with a price target raised from USD 260 to USD 276.
  • Venture Global, Inc.: Deutsche Bank downgrades to hold from buy with a target price raised from USD 13.50 to USD 17.
  • Warner Music Group Corp.: Rothschild & Co Redburn upgrades to neutral from sell with a price target raised from USD 23 to USD 30.
  • Waters Corporation: Wells Fargo downgrades to equalweight from overweight with a target price reduced from USD 420 to USD 330.
  • Delta Air Lines, Inc.: DBS Bank maintains its hold recommendation with a price target raised from 45 to USD 55.
  • Fastenal Company: Jefferies maintains its hold recommendation with a price target reduced from USD 78 to USD 45.
  • Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.: Barclays maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 232 to USD 296.
  • Newmont Corporation: CIBC Capital Markets maintains a neutral recommendation with a price target raised from 60 to USD 74.
  • Organon & Co.: TD Cowen maintains its hold recommendation with a price target reduced from USD 15 to USD 11.
  • Robinhood Markets, Inc.: Piper Sandler & Co maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 70 to USD 110.
  • Stellantis N.v.: Evercore ISI maintains its in-line recommendation and reduces the target price from 13 to EUR 9.
  • Synchrony Financial: HSBC maintains its hold recommendation with a price target raised from 54 to USD 73.
  • Synopsys, Inc.: Rothschild & Co Redburn maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 530 to USD 645.
  • Whirlpool Corporation: Goldman Sachs maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 100 to USD 125.
  • Wynn Resorts, Limited: HSBC maintains its buy recommendation with a price target raised from 97 to USD 124.