Oil Prices Extend Slide, Even as Cease-Fire Looks -2-

Russian Exporters Set New Prices for Wheat -- Market Talk

0909 ET - Russian exporters have set wheat bids for the new marketing year, says SovEcon in a note. Bids are around 14,500 RUB per metric ton, or $184, the firm says. These prices may experience some short-term pressure as farmers accumulate a new winter wheat harvest, but production issues in the southern portion of the country as well as a possible reduction to export taxes may counteract that weakness, SovEcon says. CBOT wheat is down 1.8% pre-market. ([e-mail])

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Oil Likely to Hover Near $70 if Cease-Fire Holds, Rystad Says -- Market Talk

1213 GMT - Oil prices are expected to hold near $70 a barrel if the cease-fire between Israel and Iran remains in place, according to Rystad Energy. "The key takeaway for the oil markets is to observe how the cease-fire and the subsequent U.S.-Iran deal develop," Mukesh Sahdev, global head of commodity markets, says. "For now, signals remain uncertain, and geopolitical risks persist keeping volatility high, even as some progress toward peace is made." Market participants continue to monitor developments in the region and the potential impact on supply dynamics. Israel and Iran accused each other of launching attacks shortly after the cease-fire went into effect. In afternoon trade, Brent crude falls 3.7% to $67.93 a barrel, while WTI is down 3.6% to $66.01 a barrel. ([e-mail])

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Aluminum Pares Some Weekly Gains Following Middle East Cease-fire -- Market Talk

1159 GMT - Base metal prices are mixed, with LME three-month copper up 0.3% at $9,724.0 a metric ton and LME three-month aluminum down 0.6% at $2,577.0 a ton. Aluminum prices have retreated after Israel and Iran agreed to a tenuous cease-fire but are still 1.2% higher on week, after jumping sharply on Monday alongside oil prices. The metal's gains likely reflect the high energy intensity of aluminum production, Commerzbank analysts say in a note. This has in turn led to aluminum production being increasingly located in the Gulf region in recent years, Commerzbank writes. Therefore, there were concerns that a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz as threatened by Iran over the weekend would cause logistical difficulties, analysts write. ([e-mail])

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Gold Futures Fall as Safe-haven Demand Ebbs on Cease-fire -- Market Talk

1026 GMT - Gold futures fall on de-escalation in the Middle East. Futures are down 1.7% at $3,337.70 a troy ounce. President Trump has announced that Israel and Iran agreed on a cease-fire, though uncertainty remains high. The precious metal has now given up all gains from its June rally, falling back to pre-escalation prices, SP Angel analysts say in a note. Gold ETFs had enjoyed inflows as investors sought out safe-haven assets, but now the market is rotating back into risk assets, SP Angel says. Still, gold's rally from 2022 lows of around $1,650/oz to now have been powered by foreign reserve diversification from central banks and growing concerns surrounding government debt, analysts write. These factors were the primary drivers behind gold's multi-year bull run, SP Angel says. ([e-mail])

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Palm Oil Plunges Amid Easing Middle East Tensions -- Market Talk

1022 GMT - Palm oil plunged below 4,000 ringgit a ton amid easing tensions in the Middle East, with lower crude oil and soybean oil prices adding pressure on market sentiment, according to David Ng, a trader at Kuala Lumpur-based Iceberg X. Ng sees support at 3,900 ringgit a ton and resistance at 4,150 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for October delivery declined 140 ringgit to 3,986 ringgit a ton. ([e-mail])

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Gold's Bullish Momentum Likely to Persist -- Market Talk

0957 GMT - Gold's bullish momentum is likely to persist, according to RHB research analyst Aiman Kamil Bin Ahmad Shauqi in a commentary. "Despite the indecisive pattern, the formation of a fresh 'higher high' close, accompanied by a long lower shadow, suggest the underlying buying interest remains intact," the analyst says. A long lower shadow indicates a period that prices initially fell significantly, but strongly rebounded after. The yellow metal is expected to build on its momentum and retest the US$3,500 resistance, RHB says. Given the sustained bullish momentum, RHB maintains its positive trading bias. Spot gold is down 1.4% at $3,320.03/oz. ([e-mail])

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Congo Cobalt Export Ban Elevates Risks for Investors -- Market Talk

0931 GMT - The Democratic Republic of Congo's decision to extend the ban on cobalt exports for a further three months raises risks for investors in the world's top producer of the metal, says Oxford Economics Africa in a note. The ban, initially announced in February, led to a 53.7% surge in cobalt prices, although global markets are still saturated with high stocks. Congo accounts for over 70% of cobalt, which is increasingly in demand from electric vehicle manufacturers. "The government's ability to effectively manage its mineral resources is a crucial test of its governance and a key indicator of risk for international investors," Oxford says. "The extended ban could be counterproductive...as it increases uncertainty for manufacturers." ([e-mail];@Nicholasbariyo)

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Base Metal Prices Mixed Following Middle East Cease-fire Declaration -- Market Talk

0914 GMT - Base metal prices are mixed, with LME three-month copper up 0.45% at $9,738.0 a metric ton and LME three-month aluminum down 0.4% at $2,582.50 a ton. Copper has gained on the weaker U.S. dollar after President Trump said Israel and Iran had agreed to a ceasefire. The weaker dollar reflects lower safe-haven demand and makes it cheaper for international purchasers to buy dollar-denominated commodities, improving metals demand. On the other hand, aluminum slips as market concerns of energy supply disruption ease. Aluminum is particularly sensitive to energy market prices, given its energy-intensive production processes. However, Israel has accused Iran of violating the ceasefire, keeping market caution high. ([e-mail])

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Israel-Iran Truce Could Lead to Sanction Easing, But Cease-Fire Remains Fragile -- Market Talk

0911 GMT - A permanent truce between Israel and Iran could prompt the Trump administration to reconsider its stance on sanctions and ease pressure on Tehran, according to DNB energy analysts. "If the cease-fire between Israel and Iran holds, and transforms into a permanent truce, we believe the Trump administration might be motivated to start easing the sanctions on Iran," Helge Andre Martinsen and Tobias Ingebrigtsen say. "We might exit this conflict with a more bearish setup than before conflict escalated." However, the cease-fire remains fragile, as Israel reported detecting Iranian missiles shortly after the agreement and said it would "respond with force." Brent crude and WTI trade 3.4% lower at $68.09 and $66.17 a barrel, respectively. ([e-mail])

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Gold Stocks Fall on Israel-Iran Cease-Fire -- Market Talk

0805 GMT - Gold stocks drop as easing tensions in the Middle East reduce safe-haven demand for gold. Continuous gold futures are down 1.7% at $3,338.30 a troy ounce. Gold has returned all gains made since Israel first launched strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in mid-June. The fall comes as Israel confirms a cease-fire with Iran and says it has achieved its war aims. In the U.K., Endeavour Mining falls 3%, Hochschild Mining trades down 2.5% and silver and gold miner Fresnillo slips 1.4%. In South Africa, Harmony Gold tumbles 5.3% and Gold Fields falls 4.6%. ([e-mail])

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Gold Futures Drop on Israel-Iran Cease-Fire -- Market Talk

0729 GMT - Gold futures slump on easing safe-haven demand as President Trump announces a Middle East cease-fire. Futures are down 1.8% at $3,334.50 a troy ounce. The precious metal is now trading at levels last seen before Israel launched strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in mid-June, which were followed by an Iranian retaliation and U.S. strikes over the weekend. Gold is still up nearly 23% year to date on geopolitical tensions, economic worries due to Trump's tariffs and strong central-bank buying, MUFG analysts say in a note. Market attention now turns to U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's testimony for clues on potential interest-rate cuts near term, MUFG writes. Lower interest rates would boost the appeal of noninterest bearing bullion. ([e-mail])

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European Oil Stocks Sink on Easing Middle East Tensions -- Market Talk

0720 GMT - European oil-and-gas stocks tumble in opening European trade as Israel confirms a cease-fire with Iran and says it has achieved its war aims. Brent crude drops 3.9% to $67.76 a barrel and WTI sinks 4% to $65.76 a barrel. In London, BP tumbles 6.2%, Shell falls 4.3% and Harbour Energy trades down 12%. France's TotalEnergies, Italy's Eni and Spain's Repsol all drop around 4%. ([e-mail])

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Iron Ore Lower; Prices Likely to Remain Rangebound -- Market Talk

0251 GMT - Iron ore is lower in early Asian trading. Prices are likely to remain rangebound without a strong trend, Nanhua Futures analysts say in a commentary. The black metal's fundamentals are relatively healthy, with both supply and demand staying robust, the analysts say. Still, high shipment volumes are expected to decline in July and investors will watch changes in hot metal output at that time, Maike Futures analysts say. The most-traded iron-ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange is down 0.2% at CNY704.5/ton. ([e-mail])

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(END) Dow Jones Newswires

06-24-25 1124ET