Let's break down the events. Yesterday, the US central bank kicked off its monetary easing cycle. The move was widely expected, shifting the suspense to the rate cut's magnitude. The Fed opted for a substantial 50 basis points, rather than the usual 25. This decision aligned with bookmaker predictions, which had pegged the probability at 60%. The Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 closed down between 0.25% and 0.45%, while the Russell 2000 small-cap index edged up 0.04%.
The indices ended at their daily lows, but their reactions were telling. Post-announcement, they surged, celebrating the significant rate cut. This was followed by a phase of second-guessing, which introduced some volatility. Jerome Powell's subsequent speech added a defensive tone, as he cautioned against expecting 50 basis point cuts to become routine and noted that borrowing costs would likely remain higher than pre-pandemic levels. However, the rest of his speech was more reassuring. With the dust now settled, Wall Street futures are solidly in the green this morning, indicating investor contentment.
Yesterday's measured reactions, following initial volatility, signal positivity. The dollar mirrored this pattern, dipping before recovering, and the bond market adjusted smoothly. This rate cut appears to fit the "goldilocks" scenario—neither too hot nor too cold, just right. ING's economic research team noted that many economists believed Fed officials would be hesitant to take such bold steps given the current economic conditions: 2.5-3% growth, record-high equities, above-target inflation, and low unemployment. Yet, all but one FOMC member approved the double rate cut, a near-unanimous and surprising decision. ING attributes this shift to the Fed's recent Beige Book, which revealed that only three of the twelve districts experienced growth over the past eight weeks. This revelation likely acted as a wake-up call, prompting the Fed to accelerate its easing measures.
Ultimately, the tone of the press release and press conference was dovish. Some economists were taken aback by the hawkish dot plot, indicating FOMC members' conservative stance on future rates. However, this hasn't dampened the upbeat mood; central bankers have time to adjust their messaging before year-end.
New data today further reassured investors about the US job market. The number of Americans filing new unemployment claims unexpectedly fell last week, suggesting job growth picked up in September. Initial claims dropped by 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 219,000 for the week ending September 14, according to the Labor Department. Economists had forecast 230,000 claims.
The Fed's significant rate cut also buoyed European markets, despite the Bank of England's decision to keep rates unchanged. In London, inflation fears still outweigh concerns about sluggish growth.
In the Asia-Pacific region, the Fed's decision was well-received. Japan's Nikkei 225 gained 2.1%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 2%. Gains were more modest in mainland China (+0.7%), Australia (+0.6%), India (+0.1%), and South Korea (+0.2%). European indices are clearly bullish, as are US futures, with the Nasdaq up 2%, the S&P 500 up 1.5%, and the Dow Jones up 1.1%.
Economic highlights:
The Bank of England decision, new jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed's business outlook are on the agenda, along with existing home sales and the leading index. The full agenda is here.
The dollar is worth to EUR 0.8984 and GBP 0.7541. The ounce of gold remains firm at USD 2,580. Oil is steady, with North Sea Brent at USD 74.53 a barrel and US light crude WTI at USD 70.84. The yield on 10-year US debt is at 3.75%. Bitcoin is trading at USD 62,000.
In corporate news:
- Alphabet - Google tossed its AdX advertising marketplace into the ring, hoping to pacify the European Union's regulatory lions. Alas, the EU, unimpressed with the tech titan's offering, has left Google searching for a better solution.
- Dell Technologies is up, thanks to a quarterly dividend of $0.445 per ordinary share.
- Mastercard - Retail sales in the US are forecast to rise up by 3.2% during the holiday season, according to Mastercard's report.
- Target has crowned Jim Lee as CFO, set to don the financial crown on September 22.
- Boeing - It's a stalemate at the negotiation table between Boeing and its union, with both parties parked on the tarmac of disagreement, unable to take off towards a contractual consensus.
- Chesapeake Energy - Chesapeake is igniting its engines with the acquisition of natural gas producer Southwestern Energy for a cool $7 billion, aiming to fuel up for a Q4 lift-off.
- Ford - The United Auto Workers (UAW) union has revved up its engines, setting a strike deadline at Ford's River Rouge plant over some contractual speed bumps.
Analyst recommendations:
- Boeing: Baptista Research downgrades to underperform from hold with a price target reduced from USD one hundred eighty-three point ninety to USD one hundred thirty-six.
- Casey's General Stores, Inc.: JP Morgan downgrades to underweight from neutral with a price target raised from USD three hundred to USD three hundred thirty-seven.
- Charter Communications, Inc.: RBC Capital drops coverage and changes the recommendation to sector perform with a reduced target price from USD three hundred fifty to USD three hundred forty-five.
- Elanco Animal Health Incorporated: Morgan Stanley downgrades to equal weight from overweight with a price target reduced from USD seventeen to USD fifteen.
- Equifax Inc.: BNP Paribas Exane upgrades to neutral from underperform with a price target raised from USD two hundred thirty-two to USD three hundred ten.
- Five Below, Inc.: JP Morgan downgrades to underweight from neutral with a price target raised from USD eighty-nine to USD ninety-five.
- Murphy Usa Inc.: JP Morgan downgrades to underweight from neutral with a target price raised from USD four hundred fifteen to USD four hundred thirty-five.
- Willscot Holdings Corporation: Barclays downgrades to equal weight from overweight with a price target reduced from USD fifty to USD forty-four.
- Applovin Corporation: Citigroup maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD one hundred ten to USD one hundred fifty-five.
- Aspen Technology: Loop Capital Markets maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from two hundred four to USD two hundred sixty.
- Micron Technology, Inc.: TD Cowen maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from USD one hundred sixty to USD one hundred fifteen.
- Transunion: BNP Paribas Exane maintains its outperform recommendation and raises the target price from USD ninety-nine to USD one hundred twenty.
- Antofagasta Plc: Morgan Stanley downgrades to underweight from equal weight with a target price reduced from GBX one thousand nine hundred twenty to GBX one thousand six hundred.
- Asos Plc: HSBC downgrades to reduce from hold with a price target reduced from GBP three point sixty-five to GBP three point twenty.
- Rentokil Initial Plc: Redburn Atlantic downgrades to neutral from buy with a target price reduced from GBX six hundred forty to GBX four hundred twenty.
- Ivanhoe Mines Ltd.: Morgan Stanley upgrades to overweight from equal weight with a target price raised from CAD twenty to CAD twenty-two.