A tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by midweek, which would mark the first tropical cyclone of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, the National Hurricane Center said Monday.

NHC said in its 8 a.m. ET update that a broad area of low pressure is forming over the Bay of Campeche off the coast of Mexican states Veracruz and Tabasco, and conditions are conducive for additional gradual development.

The system is expected to move slowly westward or west-northwestward toward to western Gulf Coast, NHC said.

NHC said it expects the system has a high, or 70%, chance of forming a tropical cyclone through 48 hours, and it predicts the same probability through seven days.

NHC said regardless of development, the system should bring several days of heavy rainfall across portions of southern Mexico and Central America that is likely to cause life-threatening flooding and flash flooding.

In addition, another area of thunderstorms several hundred miles east of the Bahamas could develop into a cyclone during the next few days while it moves westward or west-northwestward, NHC said.

NHC said that system has a low, or 10%, chance of forming into a cyclone through 48 hours, and a low, or 30%, through seven days.

NHC forecast the system to approach the coast of the southeast U.S. on Thursday or Friday.

   A tropical cyclone includes tropical depressions, tropical storms and   hurricanes. 

This content was created by Oil Price Information Service, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. OPIS is run independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

   --Reporting by Frank Tang, ftang@opisnet.com; Editing by Michael Kelly,   mkelly@opisnet.com 

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

06-17-24 1212ET