After Thursday’s exuberant rally, investors were cautiously optimistic this morning as they processed the diplomatic handshake across the Atlantic. The United States and Britain, seeking to quell the thunder of trade wars, unveiled a limited - but symbolically potent-accord. Under the terms, Britain will ease tariffs on American imports and extend a warmer welcome to U.S. goods. Washington, for its part, will keep its 10 percent baseline tariff firmly in place, a gesture of consistency if not compromise. For all its fanfare, the agreement’s narrow scope leaves analysts squinting into the fog, wondering if this is the blueprint for a new era of trade détente or merely a polite overture.

Markets took note not so much of what was signed, but of what wasn't barked. Trump's administration, it seems, is all noise and little bite - at least in this instance. The trade relationship with the UK, while not strategically vital to the US, carries symbolic weight. Trump, in typical form, hailed the deal as “decisive” and even “historic.” Perhaps most importantly, it’s the first agreement of the Trump 2.0 era - and it suggests that a return to diplomatic normalcy is at least conceivable.

Investors have turned their attention eastward after new declarations from Trump over tariffs. This weekend, the alpine neutrality of Switzerland will host high-stakes meetings between American and Chinese officials. Donald Trump wants to slash China’s towering 145% tariffs. He said on Friday that China should open up its market to United States and that 80% tariffs on Chinese goods "seems right." "China should open up its market to USA -- would be so good for them!!! Closed markets don't work anymore!!!" Trump said in a Truth Social post. "80% tariff on China seems right. Up to Scott B," Trump said, referring to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. 

The markets offered a modest verdict. Dow E-minis gained 0.1%. The S&P 500 E-minis eked out a 0.2% gain, and the Nasdaq 100 E-minis fared better, climbing 0.3%. 

On the corporate front, enthusiasm surged in pockets. The Trade Desk shares skyrocketed 14% in premarket trading, bolstered by quarterly results that danced past Wall Street’s expectations. Pinterest posted a similarly sunny picture, gaining 13.8% on a rosy forecast. But not all was jubilation: Expedia stumbled, missing revenue targets and falling 9.3%.

Western equity markets have donned their old cloak of invincibility - or so it seems. Since the grown-ups in Donald Trump’s advisory circle appeared to have outmaneuvered the more zealous voices shaping his economic agenda, investors have been breathing a cautious sigh of relief. Wall Street, for one, has recovered all the ground it lost during that fleeting skirmish over tit-for-tat tariffs. The S&P 500 is now down a mere 3.7% for the year, a sharp turnaround from its nadir of -21% on 7 April - just over a month ago.

In Europe, things look rosier still. European markets rallied once more yesterday. The Stoxx Europe 600 has now advanced in 11 of the past 13 sessions, boasting a year-to-date gain of 5.5%. 

China, for its part, announced overnight that exports in April came in better than forecast, while the decline in imports was less severe than feared. Exports to the US have collapsed (no surprise there), but Beijing has deftly pivoted, redirecting outbound shipments to Southeast Asia, Africa, Europe, and Latin America. One might brace for a tidal wave of bargain-bin goods Made in China appearing on online platforms across the globe.

Elsewhere, the week closes on a busy note. Beyond the Sino-American summit in Bern, the Roman Catholic Church has a new pontiff: the American Robert Francis Prevost, who has taken the name Leo XIV. Vladimir Putin is playing host to a constellation of world leaders in Moscow to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the defeat of Nazi Germany. And US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has added a pinch of pessimism, suggesting that trade talks with South Korea and Japan may take far longer to conclude than the relatively swift deal with the UK.

In the Asia-Pacific region, markets wrapped up the week with mixed results: Japan, Australia, and Taiwan posted solid gains, while China and Hong Kong dipped modestly. India saw a slightly sharper decline, and South Korea ended the week more or less flat. European indices are pointing upwards, with the Stoxx Europe 600 up 0.4%.

Today's economic highlights:

In terms of macro, not much to chew on, frankly—apart from the Central Bank of Brazil’s rate decision, and a smattering of speeches from Federal Reserve officials. 

See the full calendar here.

  • Dollar index: 100,250
  • Gold: $3,331
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): $64.00 (WTI) $60.90
  • United States 10 years: 4.39%
  • BITCOIN: $103,000

In corporate news:

  • Boeing is set to receive an order of approximately 30 jets from IAG.
  • Citigroup Inc. faces potential devaluations on its ruble-denominated assets and a $1 billion lawsuit over alleged fraud.
  • Microsoft prohibits the use of the Chinese AI app Deepseek by its employees due to security risks.
  • Ford Motor executives dismiss plans for stock buybacks and a commercial vehicle spinoff.
  • Egh Acquisition Corp priced its IPO at $10 per share, raising $150 million.
  • Nvidia is modifying its H20 chip for China to circumvent US export restrictions, Reuters has learned.
  • Apple is developing specialized chips for glasses, new Macs, and AI servers, according to Bloomberg.
  • McKesson is spinning off its surgical supplies unit and expects strong annual earnings.
  • Mattel is hiring Paul Ruh, chief financial officer of Kenvue, as its new chief financial officer.

Analyst Recommendations:

  • Airbnb, Inc.: Phillip Securities downgrades to reduce from neutral with a target price of USD 112.
  • Amd (Advanced Micro Devices): DBS Bank resumes coverage with a hold recommendation and a target price of USD 105.
  • Axon Enterprise, Inc.: William O'Neil & Co Incorporated upgrades to buy from dropped coverage.
  • Cloudflare, Inc.: Capital One Securities upgrades to overweight from equalweight with a price target raised from USD 123 to USD 146.
  • Fortinet, Inc.: DZ Bank AG Research upgrades to hold from sell with a target price of USD 95.
  • Kraft Heinz: DZ Bank AG Research downgrades to hold from buy with a target price reduced from USD 33 to USD 31.
  • Tapestry, Inc.: Morgan Stanley upgrades to overweight from equalwt with a target price raised from USD 75 to USD 90.
  • Uber Technologies, Inc.: Punto Research upgrades to hold from buy with a price target raised from USD 77.23 to USD 87.48.
  • Aes Corporation (The): Citigroup maintains its buy recommendation with a price target reduced from USD 23 to USD 14.
  • Crispr Therapeutics Ag: Barclays maintains its equalweight recommendation and reduces the target price from 56 to USD 42.
  • Estee Lauder: CICC maintains its neutral recommendation with a price target reduced from USD 82 to USD 65.
  • Flex Ltd.: KeyBanc Capital Markets maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 35 to USD 44.
  • Fortune Brands Innovations, Inc.: JP Morgan maintains its neutral recommendation and reduces the target price from 81 to USD 60.
  • Globus Medical, Inc.: Stifel maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 94 to USD 70.
  • Hubspot, Inc.: Piper Sandler & Co maintains a neutral recommendation with a price target raised from USD 535 to USD 645.
  • Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc.: JP Morgan maintains its neutral recommendation and raises the target price from 190 to USD 235.
  • Macom Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc.: Evercore ISI maintains its outperform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 114 to USD 146.
  • Microchip Technology, Inc.: Morgan Stanley maintains its market weight recommendation and raises the target price from 39 to USD 50.
  • Mks Instruments, Inc.: Cantor Fitzgerald maintains its overweight recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 140 to USD 110.
  • Pinterest, Inc.: Morgan Stanley maintains its market weight recommendation and raises the target price from 28 to USD 37.
  • Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc.: Mizuho Securities maintains its outperform recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 190 to USD 85.
  • Tetra Tech, Inc.: KeyBanc Capital Markets maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 34 to USD 41.
  • The Trade Desk, Inc.: Citigroup maintains its buy recommendation with a price target raised from USD 63 to USD 82.
  • Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc.: Barclays maintains its equalweight recommendation and raises the target price from 7 to USD 9.
  • Yeti Holdings, Inc.: Raymond James maintains its outperform rating and reduces the target price from USD 50 to USD 34.