By Xi Jinping and Joe Biden had a face-to-face meeting in Lima, Peru, on November 16, on the sidelines of the Apec summit, the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum. The Chinese president took the opportunity to send a message to his future American counterpart, calling on Washington not to cross "four red lines":
- not to question the Communist Party's influence on power;
- do not push the country towards democracy;
- do not hinder the country's economic development;
- not to encourage Taiwanese independence.
But let's be honest, even with a lot of good will, it's hard to see how these specifications could be met. Especially since Trump recently appointed Marco Rubio, a notorious anti-Chinese, to his cabinet as Secretary of State.
According to a Reuters poll of economists, the United States plans to impose tariffs of around 40% on imports from China next year. Anticipated tariffs could turn out to be significantly higher than those imposed during Donald Trump's first term, having already risen from 7.5% to 25%. This tsunami of tariffs weighs all the more heavily on China, which is currently weakened by a real estate crisis and sluggish domestic demand. However, the poll suggests that Trump is unlikely to go as far as 60% taxes.
Yet tariff wars are unlikely to reduce US trade deficits. Reducing the bilateral deficit with China would only increase deficits with other countries - if China no longer exports to the US, another country will do so in its place. What's more, China's discriminatory trade policies could spread, leading to a widespread increase in tariffs and international retaliation, with damaging economic and political consequences. In this hostile environment, it is easy to understand the European position in favor of strengthening the World Trade Organization at the G20 summit.
What's more, while the first three points seem rather trivial, they act as a Trojan horse for the fourth. Taiwan will be one of the geopolitical hot spots in the years to come. Xi Jinping once again condemned Taipei's "separatist actions", while Joe Biden called on Beijing to cease its destabilizing military activities around the archipelago. The Communist leader also told Washington not to intervene in the South China Sea, where Beijing is stepping up clashes with the Philippines. Biden and Xi did, however, agree on one point: human control must take precedence over decisions on the use of nuclear weapons, rather than relying on artificial intelligence. Not much to be reassured about.
Last but not least, the G20 meeting in Rio ended with no major announcements and a certain indifference. Leaders issued modest statements on climate change, but failed to make strong commitments in the run-up to COP29. On another front, the G20 approved cooperation to effectively tax the super-rich and launched a Global Alliance Against Hunger. In reality, the summit was marked by concerns linked to the return of Trump, known for his climate skepticism dear to Europe, and by geopolitical tensions, notably the war in Ukraine and conflicts in the Middle East. Nevertheless, the leaders present called for a ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon, while hoping for a just peace in Ukraine, without explicitly condemning Russia.
