With just under an hour to go before the closing bell, shares in the world's leading beauty group are up 0.8%, while the CAC 40 has gained over 0.9%. After opening in the red this morning, LVMH is currently up 0.5%.

This underperformance is not due to any company-specific news, but rather a negative "read-across" following LVMH's first-quarter sales presentation yesterday.

Sales for the luxury titan's Perfumes & Cosmetics division (Dior, Guerlain, Givenchy) came in below expectations, posting a 6% organic decline for the first three months of the year, whereas analysts had anticipated a more modest 4% drop.

According to analysts at Jefferies, this miss creates downside risk for the broader consensus. They suggest that market expectations for the L'Oréal Luxe division (consensus at +5.3% organic growth for Q1) could prove overly optimistic by approximately one percentage point.

A positive signal on competitive dynamics

However, the outlook is not entirely bleak for the group led by Nicolas Hieronimus. Jefferies points out that LVMH's Selective Retailing branch, which includes the Sephora perfume chain, is accelerating significantly. This could indicate that L'Oréal continues to gain market share against its rival.

For L'Oréal's own earnings release, scheduled for April 22, Jefferies is forecasting organic growth of 5.8% for the first quarter. The US broker expects the relative weakness in luxury to be offset by the Consumer Products division (forecast of +4.4% vs. 4% consensus) and the Dermatological Beauty business (forecast of +9.7% vs. 7.5% consensus).

Meanwhile, UBS analysts also anticipate a solid start to the year, driven by the resilience of developed markets. The bank forecasts adjusted organic growth of +5.3% for the first quarter, a slight acceleration from the 5% recorded in Q4 2025.

According to UBS, growth should be primarily driven by North America (+6.5%) followed by Europe (+4.5%), while Asia is expected to lag behind, hampered by difficult trading conditions in travel retail and the geopolitical climate, particularly the conflict in the Middle East.

L'Oréal will report its first-quarter revenue on April 22 after the Paris market close. Investors will be paying close attention to whether the group's diversification - notably into dermatology and mass-market products - allows it to offset the slowdown currently affecting the high-end segment.