Jerome, you're going to be in big trouble!

The Fed cut interest rates yesterday, as expected, while signaling the possibility of further reductions. Jerome Powell struck a slightly more cautious tone than markets had anticipated - a nuance that could again draw fire from Donald Trump, who has made the Fed chairman his favorite target. Wall Street's reaction was muted, with major indexes closing near equilibrium. Investors now prefer to let the dust settle before taking stronger positions, unless they simply choose to ride the current, gentle bullish wave.

The U.S. Federal Reserve dominated yesterday’s session. The S&P 500 index chart summed it up neatly: flat until mid-afternoon, a sudden jump when the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points, a quick slide as Jerome Powell struck a cautious tone, and finally a rebound that left the index almost unchanged at -0.1%. Traders welcomed confirmation that two further cuts are likely this year, but Powell reminded markets not to take easing for granted.

 

Other assets echoed the same push-and-pull. The dollar slipped on the announcement, only to recover during Powell’s press conference. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields dipped below 4% before climbing back to 4.07%, essentially unchanged. This underlines how well telegraphed the cut was — markets had already priced it in. What mattered more was the Fed’s tone: supportive of growth, but determined not to let inflation risks, amplified by tariffs, get out of hand.

 

The Fed’s internal dynamics were also telling. Eleven of twelve FOMC members backed the cut, including recent hawks Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman. Only Stephen Miran dissented, preferring a 50 bp move. That alignment reinforces Powell’s credibility, even if it won’t stop fresh political criticism from the White House. Projections now imply three total cuts before policy normalizes, with just one left in 2026. That’s less dovish than markets hoped, but also a vote of confidence in the U.S. economy’s resilience.

 

In short, the Fed is threading the needle: easing enough to support the labor market but staying firm enough to keep inflation expectations anchored. For investors, the message was pragmatic — not “as much as possible,” but “as much as necessary.”

 

In Europe, attention turns to the Bank of England, which deliver its own rate decision at midday. The ECB, by contrast, is expected to stay on hold for now.

 

In Asia, trading was uneven. Japan gained 1.3%, South Korea 1.2%, and Taiwan 1.1%, buoyed by Wall Street. Chinese equities slipped, weighed down by lingering property sector stress. In Australia, the ASX fell 0.7%, dragged lower by energy stocks after Santos confirmed the collapse of ADNOC’s takeover bid.

Today's economic highlights:

The Bank of England announced its decision on interest rates at 6:00 a.m. In the United States, weekly employment statistics and the Phillie Fed index have been released at 8:30 a.m. See the full agenda here.

• USD / GBP: 0.7360 GBP
• Gold: US$3,656
• Crude Oil (BRENT): US$68.01
• United States 10 years: 4.068%
• BITCOIN: US$117,450

In corporate news:

• Alphabet – China has decided to drop its antitrust probe into Google, a subsidiary of Alphabet, as trade talks between Beijing and Washington resume, the Financial Times reported Thursday.
  
• Amazon – Amazon violated consumer protection law by collecting Prime subscribers’ billing information before disclosing the service’s conditions, a judge ruled Wednesday, granting a partial victory to the U.S. Federal Trade Commission.
  
• Blackstone, TPG – Private equity firms Blackstone and TPG have renewed their interest in acquiring medical diagnostics company Hologic, a source said Wednesday. The Financial Times had reported in May that the two firms had submitted a non-binding offer worth about $16 billion, including debt, which Hologic rejected.
  
• Cracker Barrel Old Country Store – Cracker Barrel slid 8.8% in after-hours trading Wednesday after the restaurant chain projected 2026 revenue below analysts’ expectations.
  
• Crowdstrike – Crowdstrike rose 4.9% in premarket trading after brokers D.A. Davidson, Jefferies, and Needham raised their price targets for the stock.
  
• Disney – ABC announced it would pull “Jimmy Kimmel Live” off the air after the host’s comments about the murder of far-right activist Charlie Kirk triggered threats from the U.S. communications regulator against Disney, the channel’s parent company.
  
• Dupont – The industrial materials manufacturer said Thursday it expects net sales of about $6.87 billion for 2025, revising its previous guidance to reflect the planned spin-off of its electronics division and the sale of its Aramids business.
  
• Eli Lilly – The U.S. drugmaker’s anti-obesity treatment Mounjaro helped patients aged 10 to 17 with type 2 diabetes manage blood sugar and lose weight, according to study results presented Wednesday at a medical meeting.
  
• Intel, Nvidia – Nvidia said Thursday it would invest $5 billion in Intel, as part of an agreement that also includes the joint development of chips for PCs and data centers. Intel shares surged more than 30% in premarket trading, while Nvidia gained over 3%. AMD, a competitor of Intel in the data center semiconductor space, fell 2%.
  
• Meta Platforms – Meta on Wednesday launched its first consumer smart glasses equipped with an integrated display, seeking to build on the success of the Ray-Ban model. The new Display glasses, priced from $799, feature a small digital screen in the right lens for everyday tasks such as notifications. The company has also been in talks in recent months with media groups including Axel Springer, Fox Corp and News Corp to obtain licenses for integrating news content into its AI products, the Wall Street Journal reported Thursday.
  
• Nike – Nike gained 1.9% in premarket trading after RBC upgraded the stock to “outperform” from “sector perform.”
  
• Nucor – Nucor fell 3.6% in after-hours trading Wednesday after the steelmaker said it expects a drop in quarterly profit across all three of its business segments.

Analyst Recommendations:

• Agco: Oppenheimer maintains its outperform rating and lowers the price target from USD 124 to USD 123.
  
• Atmos Energy: Argus Research maintains its buy rating and raises the price target from USD 165 to USD 172.
  
• Autozone: TD Cowen maintains its buy rating and raises the price target from USD 4,300 to USD 4,900.
  
• Carvana: Evercore ISI maintains its in-line rating and raises the price target from USD 370 to USD 425.
  
• CNH Industrial: Oppenheimer maintains its outperform rating and lowers the price target from USD 16 to USD 13.
  
• Crowdstrike Holdings: Stephens maintains its overweight rating and raises the price target from USD 510 to USD 525.
  
• Deere & Company: Oppenheimer maintains its outperform rating and lowers the price target from USD 566 to USD 512.
  
• General Mills: Barclays maintains its equal weight rating and lowers the price target from USD 54 to USD 52.
  
• Kroger: Argus Research maintains its buy rating and raises the price target from USD 84 to USD 85.
  
• Lyft: Deutsche Bank maintains its hold rating and raises the price target from USD 16 to USD 21.
  
• Marriott International: Argus Research maintains its buy rating and raises the price target from USD 300 to USD 310.
  
• Micron Technology: CLSA maintains its accumulate rating and raises the price target from USD 155 to USD 190.
  
• Mongodb: Stephens maintains its equal weight rating and raises the price target from USD 304 to USD 340. 
  
• Resmed: Citi initiates with a buy rating and a price target of USD 330.
  
• Roivant Sciences: HC Wainwright & Co maintains its buy rating and raises the price target from USD 18 to USD 20.
  
• Zoom Communications: Benchmark Co. maintains its buy rating and raises the price target from USD 102 to USD 110.