Is there renewed visibility in semiconductors?

The European Union and the United States have just signed an agreement setting tariffs at 15% for all sectors, including semiconductors. Added to this is the recent resumption of shipments of Nvidia and AMD chips to China. Could this be a sign of a return to stability in the sector?

The technology sector, and more specifically the semiconductor industry, is undergoing a series of upheavals. Last April, tensions escalated with the announcement of tighter restrictions on GPUs against China, just days after the infamous "liberation day" introducing global tariffs. This was followed by partial exemptions on certain chips and the promise of more targeted sectoral tariffs. The situation now seems more favorable, with several positive signs: exceptions for US companies, European players limited to a 15% tariff, and, since July 15, the resumption of Nvidia and AMD GPU shipments to China. However, these factors are not yet enough to remove all uncertainty.

Semiconductors: a customs agreement that reassures but does not guarantee

According to Reuters, the big European names in the sector, ASML, STMicroelectronics, ASM International, Infineon and Soitec, will indeed be subject to a 15% customs tariff. Although high, this figure has been welcomed by the markets. It finally offers some visibility, even though it remains short-term.

Nevertheless, caution remains the order of the day. The Trump administration has proven particularly unpredictable, and according to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, sector-specific revisions are expected in the next two weeks. These could upset the delicate balance that has recently been achieved and target specific companies, such as Apple, which has been openly criticized by Donald Trump.

Nvidia faces growing competition

Beyond political uncertainties, the sector is also facing growing competition. Nvidia remains the undisputed leader today, but its position could be shaken up sooner than expected. AMD, a direct competitor, recently launched a new chip and plans to release its next generation, the MI400, in H2 2026. According to analysts at SemiAnalysis, who advise both Nvidia and AMD, this new rackable chip could upset the market balance.

At the same time, Alphabet is continuing its strategy around its custom TPUs, Ironwood, designed by Broadcom. These specific chips have demonstrated their effectiveness in the performance of Gemini and Google Cloud, providing a leading technical showcase for Broadcom. With custom chips increasingly in demand, the company could well attract more customers.

In this context, Nvidia, long alone on its throne, will now have to contend with rivals that are finally up to the task.