The geopolitical climate remains the primary factor of uncertainty. Markets appeared confident that dialogue between Washington and Tehran could restart as early as this week, facilitating an increase in oil supply flows from the key Middle East production region.
The United States expressed conviction that peace talks with Iran would be held in Pakistan, and a senior Iranian official stated that Tehran was considering participating, though significant obstacles and uncertainty remained as the end of the ceasefire approached.
Hopes for a negotiated settlement seemed to have dimmed on Monday following the US announcement that it had seized an Iranian freighter, which prompted threats of retaliation from Tehran. Although Iran said over the weekend it would skip a second round of negotiations, a senior official later told Reuters that Iran might still send delegates to the planned talks in Islamabad.
US President Donald Trump wants a deal that avoids further oil price hikes and stock market shocks, but has insisted that Iran cannot have the means to develop a nuclear weapon. Tehran hopes to leverage its control of the Strait of Hormuz to reach an agreement that avoids a return to war and eases sanctions, but does not hinder its nuclear program.
Meanwhile, the market is also monitoring the Senate confirmation hearing of Kevin Warsh, President Donald Trump's nominee to lead the Federal Reserve, an institution Trump has repeatedly criticized for not cutting rates sooner and more aggressively. According to his prepared remarks, Warsh will state that he is "committed to ensuring that the conduct of monetary policy remains strictly independent."
In parallel, investors have returned to AI-linked stocks, betting that growth will prevail again following Amazon's announcement on Monday, when it confirmed it will invest up to 25 billion dollars in Anthropic.
Bankinter analysts anticipate a "session of slight gains on the expectation of a possible agreement today between the United States and Iran, at least to extend the ceasefire, with Warsh likely ruling out the scenario of rate hikes in the United States and ahead of a promising earnings season, with expected EPS growth of +14% in the United States."
During the day, results from Northrop Grumman and General Electric will be released in the US, while in Spain, Enagas published its quarterly accounts. The gas grid operator recorded a profit slightly higher than analyst estimates -- although 12.7% lower than the same period in 2025 -- and stressed that first-quarter figures are in line with full-year targets.
Relevant macroeconomic data will also arrive, such as the ZEW confidence index in Germany and US retail sales.
Against this backdrop, at 0702 GMT on Tuesday, the Spanish blue-chip IBEX 35 was up 49.00 points, or 0.27%, to 18,309.90 points, less than 200 points from the record of 14,496.6 points on February 26 (at closing prices), while the FTSE Eurofirst 300 index of major European stocks advanced 0.15%.
In the banking sector, Santander rose 0.17%, BBVA gained 0.05%, Caixabank advanced 0.28%, Sabadell gained 0.18%, Bankinter appreciated 0.20%, and Unicaja Banco lost 0.15%.
Among non-financial heavyweights, Telefonica gained 0.23%, Inditex advanced 0.59%, Iberdrola appreciated 0.08%, Cellnex gained 0.59%, and the oil company Repsol rose 0.30%.
Beauty products group Puig stood out with a 1.81% rise, after Expansion reported that US cosmetics giant Estee Lauder has commissioned JP Morgan to structure a financing package of around 5 billion euros (5.89 billion dollars) for its takeover bid for the Spanish company.
(Reporting by Tomas Cobos; editing by Benjamin Mejias Valencia)
