Investors find themselves scanning screens and Fed calendars with the intensity of someone trying to remember if they left the stove on. The backdrop is a peculiar mix of buoyancy and bureaucratic gridlock: stocks are near record highs, but Washington is in its eighth day of a government shutdown. 

The U.S. government's impasse has had one immediate effect: economic data releases are stuck in limbo. Traders, who normally enjoy parsing nonfarm payrolls, are now forced to rely on "alternative indicators." One such indicator came from Carlyle Group, which estimated that the economy added a meager 17,000 jobs in September. That's far below economists' expectations, and if true, suggests a labor market losing some of its once-formidable stride.

Meanwhile, attention has turned to the Federal Reserve. Later today, investors will get a peek into the minutes from the Fed's September meeting. On the docket are speeches by several Fed officials, each of whom has the power to nudge markets with a single well-placed adjective. The prevailing question is whether interest rates will remain elevated or begin a descent.

And then there's gold. The metal has crossed $4,000 an ounce for the first time, a milestone that would have sounded outlandish not so long ago. Gold's ascent is being read as a barometer of doubt, a glittering vote of no confidence in policymakers' ability to steer through fiscal and geopolitical turbulence. It has also become what some traders are calling a "conviction trade," less about hedging and more about expressing a rather loud opinion on the state of the world.

U.S. stock index futures, for their part, are inching higher in early trading. Dow E-minis are up 0.2, S&P 500 futures are ahead by 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 contracts have risen 0.1% as well. It's a modest rebound after Tuesday's pause, when enthusiasm around artificial intelligence briefly faltered following a report questioning the profitability of AI computing power.

Oracle stumbled into the spotlight yesterday thanks to a leak from The Information. Back in September, its stock had surged 36% in a single day after investors embraced the idea that its small cloud arm was suddenly destined for AI glory. Internal documents, however, reveal that the $900 million in AI revenue comes with far slimmer margins than Oracle’s usual 70%.

The revelation highlights a broader tension. Tech giants, long accustomed to fat margins, are now spending at breakneck speed to keep their AI promises. Microsoft’s annual capital expenditures, once under $15 billion, are expected to top $90 billion within two years. Whether these investments herald a new era of dominance, or just ballooning budgets, remains to be seen. For now, the real winners are the chipmakers quietly cashing in.

Yesterday's wobble, however, did little to dent the broader rally. Stocks remain buoyant, propelled by optimism about AI's transformative potential and, perhaps, by a touch of fear of missing out.

Some individual stocks are doing their own acrobatics. Shares of Confluent jumped nearly 20% on reports it's exploring a sale, while Joby Aviation plunged over 10% after announcing a discounted stock offering. Gold miners are understandably glowing: Newmont, Kinross, and Gold Fields are all up, riding the wave of bullion fever. 

The bond market is sending a quieter but equally pointed message. Treasury yields are drifting lower, and the dollar is nearing a two-month high against a basket of currencies. Political developments in Japan and France have added a touch of international intrigue, weakening the yen and the euro. The yield curve, analysts say, is set to steepen further in the months ahead, a sign that markets expect more action down the line.

In Asia-Pacific, the Nikkei 225 ended up falling slightly in Japan, after celebrating the arrival in power of Sanae Takaichi, a prime minister who supports low interest rates. After a public holiday, Hong Kong resumed trading down 0.8% in the wake of US tech stocks. Mainland China will not reopen until tomorrow, after a whole week of twiddling its thumbs. South Korea is also closed for a second consecutive public holiday. Taiwan resumed trading down 0.5%. In Australia, the ASX posted a third session of miniscule declines. India is trading around equilibrium. European leading indicators are bullish.

Today's economic highlights:

On today's agenda: industrial production CVS GM in Germany; in the United States, DOE crude oil inventories and consumer confidence. See the full calendar here.

  • Dollar index: 98,788
  • Gold: $4,044
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): $66.39 (WTI) $62.74
  • United States 10 years: 4.10%
  • BITCOIN: $122,675

In corporate news:

  • Loop is entering over 600 Target stores in the U.S., marking the Belgian earplug brand's first major brick-and-mortar retail push in the U.S. market.
  • Haleon has selected Salesforce's Agentforce Life Sciences Cloud to enhance its customer engagement capabilities.
  • RTX's Raytheon was chosen by Germany to supply its SPY-6(V)1 radar system for the country’s new F127 frigates.
  • SEI Investments was selected by H.I.G. Capital to provide fund administration and depositary services.
  • eCapital expanded its credit facility with Ares to $388 million to support continued growth.
  • Hilton's 2026 trends report reveals a rise in "whycations," where travelers prioritize meaningful, purpose-driven trips.
  • Zebra Technologies is helping ODW Logistics achieve a 42% improvement in order pick rates.
  • Jefferies disclosed that its fund is exposed to $715 million in receivables tied to bankrupt First Brands Group, raising concerns among debt investors.
  • Coca-Cola will launch 7.5-ounce mini cans in U.S. convenience stores to attract price- and calorie-conscious consumers.
  • HealthTap will provide virtual diabetes care via Eli Lilly's LillyDirect platform, enhancing the drugmaker's digital healthcare services.
  • Dayforce’s largest shareholder, T. Rowe Price, plans to vote against a $12.3 billion buyout offer from Thoma Bravo, calling the deal undervalued.
  • AST SpaceMobile signed a commercial agreement with Verizon to provide space-based cellular broadband across the U.S. starting in 2026.
  • TopBuild acquired rival SPI for $1 billion in cash, finalizing a deal previously delayed by antitrust concerns.
  • Amazon will launch pharmacy kiosks in its One Medical offices to allow on-site prescription pickup, starting in Los Angeles.
  • Exxon Mobil signed a new agreement with Iraq to develop the Majnoon oilfield and expand southern export infrastructure.
  • Acadia Healthcare appointed Todd Young as CFO amid activist investor pressure for strategic and governance changes.
  • Confluent is exploring a sale after acquisition interest from private equity and tech firms, following a drop in its stock value.
  • Eli Lilly hired former top U.S. FDA official Peter Marks to lead its infectious disease programs.
  • Hollywood and Bollywood studios are lobbying India to protect copyrighted content from being used in AI model training.
  • JPMorgan's Peter Scher to retire next spring; CEO Jamie Dimon supports easing quarterly earnings requirements and highlights $2 billion annual AI investment.
  • Tesla introduces more affordable versions of Model Y and Model 3.
  • Intercontinental Exchange invests up to $2 billion in Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market.
  • Walt Disney acquires rights to 'Impossible Creatures' book series for a new film franchise and partners with GM for in-vehicle streaming via Disney+.
  • OpenAI and Anthropic consider using investor funds to settle potential lawsuits while expanding operations in Canada and India.
  • Elon Musk's xAI nears a $20 billion financing round, partly through Nvidia's equity investment.
  • Johnson & Johnson ordered to pay $966 million.
  • Stellantis and GM face potential revocation of $19.56 billion in clean energy funding by the US government.

Analyst Recommendations:

  • AMD (Advanced Micro Devices): DZ Bank AG Research upgrades to buy from hold with a price target raised from USD 165 to USD 250. 
  • Arista Networks Inc: Zacks downgrades to neutral from outperform with a target price of USD 165.
  • Caesars Entertainment, Inc.: Zacks downgrades to underperform from neutral and reduces the target price from USD 27 to USD 22.50.
  • Cheniere Energy, Inc.: Zacks upgrades to outperform from neutral with a price target raised from USD 248 to USD 270.
  • Freeport-Mcmoran Inc.: Citi upgrades to buy from neutral with a target price of USD 48.
  • Incyte Corporation: Oppenheimer downgrades to market perform from outperform with a target price of USD 82.
  • Intel Corporation: HSBC downgrades to reduce from hold and raises the target price from USD 21.25 to USD 24.
  • Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc.: B Riley Securities Inc. downgrades to neutral from buy and raises the target price from USD 72 to USD 105.
  • Lantheus Holdings, Inc.: Goldman Sachs downgrades to neutral from buy and reduces the target price from USD 110 to USD 77.
  • Otis Worldwide Corporation: Wolfe Research upgrades to outperform from peerperform with a target price of USD 109.
  • C.h. Robinson Worldwide, Inc.: JP Morgan maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 126 to USD 155.
  • Elf Beauty: Morgan Stanley maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 134 to USD 170.
  • Hca Healthcare, Inc.: KeyBanc Capital Markets maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 370 to USD 465.
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.: JP Morgan upgrades to overweight from neutral with a price target raised from USD 49 to USD 80.