Guyana’s
government announced that it has significantly raised its economic
growth forecast to 15.2% for 2025, up from a previous estimate of
10.6%, driven primarily by accelerating oil production from the
ExxonMobil-led Stabroek Block operations.
The
Ministry of Finance reported that the oil and gas sector grew 5.5%
in the first half of 2025, with production reaching 115.7mn barrels
compared to 113.5mn barrels in the same period last year. Average
daily output climbed to nearly 640,000 barrels per day (bpd), up
from approximately 624,000 bpd in H1 2024.
The
government now projects the oil sector will expand 15.6% for the
full year, bolstered by the earlier-than-planned startup of the Yellowtail project.
ExxonMobil
is conducting further exploration, with the Uaru and Whiptail projects advancing on schedule toward
production startup in 2026 and 2027, respectively.
Meanwhile,
the non-oil economy demonstrated robust growth of 13.8% in the
first half, with full-year non-oil growth projected at 13.9%,
marking the fifth consecutive year of expansion.
Global
crude prices averaged $71.70 per barrel in the first half of 2025,
down 14.6% year-over-year as demand weakened and OPEC+ announced
plans to increase supply by approximately 400,000 b/d.
Despite
lower oil prices, Guyana's expanding production volumes have
maintained a 'strongly positive' growth outlook. However, this
extraordinary economic expansion underscores both the opportunities
and vulnerabilities inherent in Guyana's oil-dependent
transformation. While the government emphasises continued
prioritisation of the non-oil economy, the widening gap between oil
and non-oil sector contributions raises questions about long-term
economic diversification and the country's resilience to commodity
price volatility.
© 2025 bne IntelliNews, source Magazine
