Following the escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, markets are in turmoil. Brent is now trading at nearly $110/barrel (an increase of over 70% compared to its Q4 2025 average) and the TTF (European gas) has surpassed €50/MWh (+70% compared with Q4 2025).

The American bank's new models incorporate the following assumptions:

- Brent: $76/barrel for 2026 (up from $60 previously).

- TTF: $14.9/mcf and $11.1/mcf (thousand cubic feet) for 2026 and 2027 (compared to previous estimates of $10.6/mcf and $9.3/mcf).

"We are also factoring in the negative impact on production related to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, assuming a one-month total shutdown in the region. Consequently, our earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2026 and 2027 increase by an average of 55% and 9%, respectively. This places us 38% above the LSEG consensus for 2026 forecasts, but only 12% above for 2027," Goldman Sachs stated.

Following the bank's analysis, oil sector stocks were trading higher around 3:30 PM: TotalEnergies (+0.69%), bp (+1.4%), Shell (+1.92%), Repsol (+0.72%), Eni (+1.51%).

The 4 Pillars of Upside Risk

Commodity analysts at Goldman Sachs have identified four reasons why the risks of a major spike relative to their baseline forecasts (Brent in the $80s in March and high $70s in Q2) are rapidly intensifying.

They plan to revise their oil price forecasts shortly if no signs of a gradual normalization of flows in the Strait of Hormuz appear in the coming days.

The first reason is the collapse in flows: estimated oil flows transiting the Strait of Hormuz have dropped by 18 Mb/d (million barrels per day), which corresponds to approximately 10% of normal levels.

The second is limited redirection: estimates for net redirection via pipelines and the ports of Yanbu (Red Sea, Saudi Arabia) and Fujairah (Gulf of Oman, UAE) remain low, at only 0.9 Mb/d over the last four days (against an estimated theoretical potential of 3.6 Mb/d).

The third is the absence of an immediate solution: no quick resolution to restore passage through the Strait appears imminent, with most carriers remaining in a wait-and-see position due to high physical risks.

The fourth is demand destruction: oil prices may need to reach "demand destruction" levels faster than history suggests (the current 17 Mb/d impact on Persian Gulf supply is 17 times greater than the peak disruption of Russian production in April 2022).

Furthermore, Goldman Sachs emphasizes that a reduction in physical risks for maritime transport is likely a necessary condition for a substantial resumption of flows in the Strait. This suggests three potential paths:

- a general de-escalation of the conflict;

- increased protection of tankers by the United States;

- Iran allowing safe passage for vessels based on certain origins/destinations (including China).

Goldman Sachs details the share of total production for each company that depends on transit through the Strait of Hormuz (via Qatar, the UAE, or Iraq):

- TotalEnergies: 24% of its production (the most exposed of the European majors).

- bp: 12%.

- Shell: 7%.

- Eni: 6%

In their latest analysis from March 6, these analysts estimate that oil prices would likely cross two critical thresholds:

- as early as this week: exceeding $100 if no signs of resolution appear by then.

- during March: surpassing the historical records of 2008 and 2022, assuming that flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain at a standstill for the entire month.