U.S. employers added 130,000 jobs in January, double the roughly 65,000 economists had expected. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.3%, slightly better than forecasts. At first glance, that looks like a solid, even reassuring report.

But as always, the details matter. The government's annual benchmark revision shaved 862,000 jobs from prior estimates. And the two-month revision to November and December subtracted another 17,000 jobs. In other words, the past wasn't quite as strong as we thought.

Job growth is not roaring, but it is steady. The unemployment rate remains historically low. That hardly describes an economy falling off a cliff. Yet the downward revisions and December's unexpected weakness in retail sales hint that momentum has cooled. The labor market is no longer sprinting. It's jogging.

For the Federal Reserve, this is awkwardly balanced. A much weaker number would have strengthened the case for rate cuts as early as April. A blockbuster number would have shut that door. Instead, we got a Goldilocks-ish report. Markets had been pricing in a first cut in June, they now expect it in July. A month after Donald Trump's nominee for Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, is expected to take over, pending Senate approval. 

If the labor market is stable but not booming, then earnings and sector-specific shocks suddenly matter more. Which brings us to yesterday. Financial services had a rough ride. Shares of traditional investment firms - Raymond James, Charles Schwab, Ameriprise, Stifel - fell sharply. The trigger was not a recession scare. It was artificial intelligence.

A start-up called Altruist unveiled an AI tool designed to build automated, personalized tax strategies by instantly analyzing clients' financial documents. The promise is simple: do in seconds what human advisors might take hours to prepare. If AI can handle tax optimization and portfolio advice, what happens to firms built on those services?

The same question has been circling software companies for weeks. Now it has moved into financial services. High-margin sectors with generous valuations are suddenly being examined as if they were antique shops in the path of a bulldozer. Investors appear to be conducting a kind of rolling audit: Who else could AI replace next?

Data providers were also caught in the downdraft. S&P Global's results deepened concerns about how AI might reshape the economics of financial information. Shares of S&P Global, MSCI, Moody's, Verisk, and Broadridge all slid sharply. The logic - fair or not - is that if AI systems can scrape, process, and generate insights from vast data pools, the pricing power of traditional data intermediaries could come under pressure.

The broader indexes reflected this tension. The Dow managed to eke out another record close, helped by consumer stocks. But the S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended lower. It was a split-screen moment: optimism in some corners, anxiety in others.

Globally, the picture is mixed. Asian markets have been buoyant, pushing major regional indexes into record territory. Emerging markets are off to a strong start this year. China's inflation eased in January, and producer prices remain in decline, a reminder that the world's second-largest economy still faces demand challenges.

Today's economic highlights:

On the agenda today: investment lending for homes and quarterly home loans in Australia; followed by the monthly inflation rate, annual PPI, and annual inflation rate in China; RBA Hauser's speech in Australia; monthly industrial production in Italy; in the United States with the MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate, participation rate, unemployment rate, non-farm payrolls, average hourly earnings YoY and MoM, Fed Bowman's speech, EIA gasoline and crude oil stocks change, and finally the monthly budget statement. See the full calendar here.

  • Dollar index: 96,740
  • Gold: $5,082
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): $70.22 (WTI) $65.37
  • United States 10 years: 4.14%
  • BITCOIN: $67,538

In corporate news:

  • Chevron secured an oil and gas exploration licence in Libya's Sirte S4 Basin, while a consortium of Repsol and TOPC won rights to the C3 basin in the country's latest bidding round.
  • QXO has agreed to acquire Kodiak Building Partners for about $2.25 billion to expand beyond roofing into broader building materials and better compete with Home Depot and Lowe's.
  • Gilead Sciences forecast 2026 sales and earnings below Wall Street expectations despite strong quarterly results and solid early sales of its HIV prevention drug Yeztugo, sending shares lower.
  • Madrigal Pharmaceuticals signed an exclusive global licensing deal with Suzhou Ribo Life Science and its unit Ribocure for six preclinical siRNA liver-disease programs.
  • Moderna shares fell after the U.S. FDA declined to review its application for a new influenza vaccine, potentially delaying its standalone and combination flu/COVID shots.
  • Philip Morris International failed to persuade India to relax its e-cigarette ban, blocking plans to introduce its heated tobacco device IQOS in the country.
  • Akasa Air said co-founder and chief commercial officer Praveen Iyer will leave in April amid ongoing Boeing jet delivery delays.
  • Fractal Analytics saw its $314 million IPO fully subscribed on the final day of bidding, valuing the Indian AI firm at up to $1.59 billion.
  • Robinhood shares fell after the retail brokerage reported fourth-quarter revenue below expectations due to weaker crypto trading activity.
  • Cloudflare shares rose after the company forecast annual and first-quarter sales above Wall Street estimates, citing strong AI-driven demand.
  • Tencent Cloud partnered with Tesla to upgrade the in-car cockpit experience.
  • Philip Morris International failed to persuade India to relax its e-cigarette ban, blocking plans to introduce its heated tobacco device IQOS in the country.
  • Paramount improves its bid for Warner Bros by offering to cover the break-up fees with Netflix and other costs. In addition, the Ancora fund has reportedly built up a position to push for the abandonment of the Netflix deal.
  • Ford posts heavy Q4 loss and fears the impact of tariffs.
  • Estée Lauder is suing Walmart for selling counterfeit products.
  • Blackstone is investing $200 million in Anthropic, based on a valuation of $350 billion, according to Bloomberg.

Analyst Recommendations:

  • Arrow Electronics, Inc.: Zacks upgrades to outperform from neutral with a price target raised from USD 167 to USD 182.
  • Cloudflare, Inc.: Baird upgrades to outperform from neutral with a price target raised from USD 230 to USD 260.
  • Mattel, Inc.: JP Morgan downgrades to underweight from neutral and reduces the target price from USD 23 to USD 14.
  • Qualcomm, Inc.: Daiwa Securities downgrades to neutral from outperform with a target price of USD 140.
  • Radian Group Inc.: Keefe Bruyette & Woods upgrades to outperform from market perform and raises the target price from USD 41 to USD 42.
  • Entegris, Inc.: KeyBanc Capital Markets maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 111 to USD 156.
  • Freeport-Mcmoran Inc.: Stifel Canada maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 52 to USD 76.
  • Freshworks Inc.: Canaccord Genuity maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 19 to USD 14.
  • Gilead Sciences, Inc.: Baird maintains its neutral recommendation and raises the target price from USD 108 to USD 145.
  • Harley-Davidson, Inc.: Baird maintains its neutral recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 28 to USD 22.
  • Hasbro, Inc.: D.A. Davidson maintains its neutral recommendation and raises the target price from USD 86 to USD 110.
  • Lattice Semiconductor Corporation: Deutsche Bank maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 90 to USD 115.
  • Lyft, Inc.: Piper Sandler & Co maintains its overweight recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 28 to USD 20.
  • Marriott International, Inc.: Deutsche Bank maintains its hold recommendation and raises the target price from USD 289 to USD 348.
  • Medpace Holdings, Inc.: BMO Capital Markets maintains its market perform recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 600 to USD 460.
  • Merck & Co., Inc.: Daiwa Securities maintains its neutral recommendation and raises the target price from USD 86 to USD 120.
  • Micron Technology, Inc.: Morgan Stanley maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 350 to USD 450.
  • Monday.com Ltd.: Barclays maintains its overweight recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 194 to USD 115.
  • Paypal Holdings, Inc.: Rothschild & Co Redburn maintains its sell recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 50 to USD 32.
  • S&P Global, Inc.: Wells Fargo maintains its overweight recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 675 to USD 530.
  • Spotify Technology S.a.: HSBC maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 746 to USD 531.
  • Teradyne, Inc.: DBS Bank maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 125 to USD 330.
  • Zillow Group, Inc.: Goldman Sachs maintains its neutral recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 78 to USD 62.