Futures in the red; focus on banking M&A

(Alliance News) - On Tuesday, major European stock indices are expected to open in negative territory, with the Italian session likely to be dominated once again by banking M&A activity, with Banca Monte dei Paschi taking center stage.

The FTSE MIB is called down 0.2% or approximately 84.2 points, after closing Monday up 0.6% at 50,208.13 points.

In Europe, London's FTSE 100 is expected to open fractionally lower, the Paris CAC 40 is indicated down 0.3%, while the Frankfurt DAX 40 is anticipated to slip 0.1%.

On Monday, banks led the gains as market attention focused on the sector and MPS, which is currently the subject of interest from both Banco BPM and Intesa Sanpaolo.

On the monetary front, investors continue to bet on a still-hawkish ECB, pricing in a near-certain probability of an initial rate hike at this week's meeting.

In the US, tech stocks recovered ground following Friday's sell-off, as investors returned to buy on weakness, bolstered by hopes of a truce between Iran and Israel, which helped drive down oil prices and bond yields.

Despite the recent rebound, Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst at Swissquote, explains that doubts remain regarding the sustainability of the AI-fueled rally, while the market continues to ignore risks related to energy tensions and declining global oil reserves.

In the background, signs of an economic slowdown in Europe are emerging, while enthusiasm for new listings and AI-related investments continues to support the tech sector.

In Milan yesterday evening, the Mid-Cap gained 0.4% to 61,813.97 points, the Small-Cap advanced 1.2% to 35,674.16 points, while Italy Growth closed slightly below par at 9,164.93 points.

On Piazza Affari, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena was the top performer on the MIB, recording a 13% rise with trading volumes exceeding 156 million shares. The Sienese bank - now priced at EUR10.10 per share - continues to be the protagonist of the Italian banking consolidation wave.

Banco BPM, up 0.8%, has indeed submitted a merger-of-equals proposal to MPS that would create the country's second-largest banking group. According to estimates, the deal could generate over EUR1.1 billion in synergies, a market capitalization exceeding EUR50 billion, a CET1 ratio of 15%, and a steady-state net profit of approximately EUR6 billion, with estimated value creation of at least EUR5.5 billion.

Bucking the trend was Intesa Sanpaolo, which closed the session down 1.4%, ranking among the worst performers on the main list. The bank has launched an exchange and cash offer (OPAS) for MPS, offering shareholders 16 Intesa shares for every 10 shares tendered, plus EUR1.00 in cash per share, with premiums reaching up to 18.7%.

The transaction also includes the sale of 635 MPS branches to Unipol, whose shares rose 3.1%, and aims to achieve over EUR16 billion in net profit by 2029, driven by estimated annual synergies of EUR2.9 billion.

Buying interest was seen in FinecoBank - up 0.9% - which announced on Monday that net inflows for May reached EUR1.54 billion, a 17% increase compared to EUR1.31 billion in the same month of 2025, bringing the total for the first five months of the year to EUR7.49 billion from EUR5.78 billion, representing 30% year-on-year growth.

Avio, however, shed 1.8% after two sessions of bullish candles. Notably, Two Sigma Investments increased its short position on the stock to 0.68% from the previous 0.55%.

On the Mid-Cap, Revo Insurance showed strength, finishing up 5.8% in its fourth consecutive bullish session.

Safilo Group also performed well, advancing 6.4%. The group announced on Monday that its subsidiary Safilo has mandated Kepler Cheuvreux to launch a share buyback program for up to 10 million ordinary shares, approximately 2.5% of the share capital, for a maximum total value of EUR20 million.

Caltagirone closed up 4.0%, rebounding after five consecutive losing sessions and bringing the price to the EUR8.91 per share area.

Carel Industries, meanwhile, fell 2.6%, following a 4.3% drop in the previous session.

Ascopiave ended its run by shedding 3.6% after a 0.8% gain on Friday evening. The stock saw above-average volumes, with nearly 555,000 shares changing hands compared to a three-month daily average of 480,000. The company announced on Monday that the board of directors has appointed director Stefano Faè as Managing Director and CEO, granting him the relevant powers.

The board also granted powers to Chairman Giovanni Zoppas in his capacity as non-independent Executive Chairman.

On the Small-Cap, a strong bullish candle for Trevi Finanziaria Industriale, which rose 9.5% after a more modest 0.5% gain in the previous session. On Friday, the company announced that Consob had approved Trevifin's prospectus for a rights issue of up to EUR100 million.

Aedes advanced 5.7% to EUR0.85 per share, breaking a three-session losing streak.

Caltagirone Editore climbed 4.6% to EUR2.27 per share. Notably, the stock hit a new 52-week high of EUR2.40 during trading.

Aeffe - among the laggards - fell 3.8% to EUR0.14 per share, hitting a 52-week low of EUR0.13 during the session.

Among SMEs, Compagnia dei Caraibi showed strength, closing up 7.0%. The company's board on Monday approved the consolidated financial statements, ending the year with a net loss of EUR4.6 million, compared to a loss of EUR2.1 million in the previous year.

On the balance sheet front, the net financial position was negative by EUR9.8 million, but improved from EUR11.0 million as of December 31, 2024.

Energy Time surged over 10% to EUR6.80 per share, marking a new 52-week high at this price.

Fope rose 6.8% to EUR50.00, also reaching a new 52-week high.

Selling pressure hit H-Farm - down 1.9% - which on Friday defined the terms and timetable for the rights issue approved by the board on May 29, for a maximum amount of EUR7.9 million.

Dedem fell 5.3% after a 2.0% gain on Friday evening, with the price hovering around EUR3.96 per share.

In New York on Monday evening, the Dow lost 0.2%, the Nasdaq advanced 0.9%, while the S&P 500 rose 0.3%.

In Asia, the Nikkei is up 2.1%, the Hang Seng is down 0.1%, while the Shanghai Composite is up 0.7%.

On the currency front, the euro is trading at USD1.1545 from USD1.1544 on Monday evening, while the pound is trading at USD1.3362 from USD1.3342 yesterday evening.

Among commodities, Brent is trading at USD93.16 per barrel from USD94.65 per barrel on Monday evening, while gold is worth USD4,344.72 an ounce from USD4,331.55 an ounce at yesterday's close.

Tuesday's macroeconomic calendar includes the ADP weekly employment change report from the US at 1415 CEST, followed by trade balance data at 1430 CEST.

At 2230 CEST, also from the US, weekly oil inventory data will be available.

On the Piazza Affari corporate calendar, results from Homizy are expected.

By Antonio Di Giorgio, Alliance News reporter

Comments and questions to [e-mail]

Copyright 2026 Alliance News IS Italian Service Ltd. All rights reserved.