Futures bearish as Iran-US tensions persist

(Alliance News) - European markets are headed for a negative open on Thursday, with major index futures signaling a weak start to trading amid renewed risk aversion.

Investor sentiment is primarily weighed down by the flare-up in geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, which has dampened expectations for a short-term peace agreement and reignited fears over the stability of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy flows.

Negotiations between Washington and Tehran remain deadlocked on several key issues, including Iran's demand to maintain strategic control of Hormuz and preserve its nuclear program. The lack of concrete progress is fueling volatility in energy markets and driving investors toward defensive assets.

Against this backdrop, European futures are showing widespread declines, while rising energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty continue to act as a drag on risk assets. The market fears that any further deterioration in the situation could translate into fresh inflationary pressures and a tightening of global financial conditions.

Consequently, the FTSE MIB - after shedding 0.6% to 49,578.67 points - is expected to open down 0.4% or approximately 207.5 points. London's FTSE 100 is down 63.00 points, the Paris CAC 40 is shedding 59.60 points, while the Frankfurt DAX 40 is in the red by 144.00 points.

Yesterday evening, the Mid-Cap fell 0.3% to 61,780.32 points, the Small-Cap gained 0.6% to 35,520.51 points, while Italy Growth closed up 0.1% at 8,989.52 points.

Returning to Milan, on the MIB yesterday evening, Avio closed the session up 4.9%, marking its seventh consecutive bullish session. Short positions on the stock show mixed movements, with Citadel Advisors increasing its short position to 0.50% from 0.40%, while Two Sigma Investments reduced its stake to 0.78% from 0.87%. Voleon Capital Management's position also decreased, falling to 1.28% from 1.43%.

Moncler advanced 4.4% to EUR54.66 per share, following a 1.4% decline in the previous session.

Lottomatica Group - up 0.8% - announced on Wednesday that it purchased 276,000 of its own ordinary shares between May 18 and 22 at an average price of EUR25.2283 each, for a total value of EUR7.0 million. To date, the company holds 17.2 million treasury shares, representing 6.8% of its share capital.

Prysmian dropped 2.5% to EUR146.50. JPMorgan confirmed its 'overweight' rating on the stock and raised its target price to EUR172 from EUR138, believing the market is still undervaluing the potential of the Digital Solutions division, driven by strong demand related to data centers and artificial intelligence. Analysts explained that the Digital Solutions division, which accounted for 8% of revenues and 11% of the group's adjusted Ebitda in 2025, is entering a new growth phase thanks to increasing demand for optical fiber for hyperscale data centers and defense applications.

Telecom Italia - closing down 0.9% - announced on Wednesday that the board has initiated the first tranche of the buyback program authorized by the shareholders' meeting on April 15. The first phase of the plan involves the repurchase of up to 140 million TIM shares by the end of 2026, approximately 0.7% of the capital, for a value of about EUR100 million at May 26 market prices. The shares will be used for previously approved incentive and remuneration plans.

Eni - down 2.8% following a retreat in crude prices - announced on Wednesday that it purchased 3.4 million treasury shares between May 19 and 22 at an average price of EUR23.7630 each, for a total value of EUR79.9 million. Eni holds 91.9 million treasury shares, representing 3.0% of its share capital.

On the Mid-Cap, BFF Bank closed with a bullish candle exceeding 11%, after a 2.5% decline in the previous session.

Salvatore Ferragamo advanced 5.7%, following a 1.3% loss in the prior session.

Technogym closed down 8.8%. Berenberg confirmed its 'buy' recommendation on the stock with an unchanged target price of EUR24.50, believing the long-term growth story remains intact despite increased caution regarding short-term margins. In the report authored by Anna Frontani, the investment bank highlighted that the group remains well-positioned 'at the intersection of premium fitness, luxury lifestyle, and digital health', reiterating that 'wellness is the new luxury'.

Ariston Holding - down 0.5% - announced on Wednesday that it exercised its call option to acquire the remaining 49% of Chromagen Australia Pty Ltd, in which it already held a 51% stake and was fully consolidated, thereby reaching 100% of the share capital. The consideration for the remaining 49% stake amounts to AUD33.6 million, or EUR20.4 million.

On the Small-Cap, The Italian Sea Group gained over 18%, following a 3.9% rise the previous day.

Aeffe - up 3.6% - is accelerating its turnaround process and has filed a petition with the Court of Bologna for authorization to contract pre-deductible financing as part of the group's negotiated crisis settlement. The company requested approval for a bullet loan of up to EUR20 million granted by illimity Bank, with a maximum duration of 18 months and 2 days, at a cost equal to 3-month Euribor with a zero floor plus a margin of 12%.

TXT e-solutions - down 0.3% - announced on Tuesday that it is leading the coordination of a EUR28.0 million project funded by the European Defence Fund, bringing together major industrial players from the European aerospace, defense, and digital engineering sectors 'to develop new interoperable digital architectures for future defense systems'.

Selling pressure hit Softlab, which left 9.0% on the floor after a 3.3% decline in the previous session.

Among SMEs, High Quality Food gained 15%, marking its third consecutive bullish session with a final price of EUR0.59 per share.

ESI - up 9.1% - announced on Tuesday that a binding agreement was signed with Innovatec Spa for the merger of ESI into Innovatec, aiming to create a new integrated group in the energy transition and renewables sector. The transaction, approved by the boards of both companies listed on Euronext Growth Milan, will begin with an Innovatec rights issue of nearly EUR8.0 million.

Maps - flat at EUR2.48 - announced on Tuesday that it was awarded a project with a total value of approximately EUR1.2 million and a duration of 7 years, aimed at the technological renewal of the Patient Experience systems at the San Raffaele Hospital in Milan.

Xenia Hotellerie Solution - flat at EUR2.60 - announced on Wednesday that it completed the acquisition of a 60% stake in Layover Technology Solution Srl, a company operating in the accommodation market through the Herop brand, following through on its March 26 announcement.

On Wall Street yesterday evening, the Dow Jones closed up 0.4%, the Nasdaq gained 0.1%, while the S&P finished slightly above parity.

In Asian markets, the Nikkei is heading toward a 0.5% decline, the Hang Seng is shedding 1.4%, while the Shanghai Composite is gaining 0.3%.

On the currency front, the euro is trading at USD1.1604 from USD1.1632 on Wednesday evening, while the pound is trading at USD1.3398 from USD1.3422 on Wednesday evening.

Among commodities, Brent is trading at USD96.93 per barrel from USD96.25 on Wednesday evening, while gold is valued at USD4,375.05 per ounce from USD4,433.31 at Wednesday's close.

Thursday's economic calendar includes Italian consumer and business confidence data at 1000 CEST, followed by the auction of five- and 10-year BTPs at 1130 CEST. At 1200 CEST, Italian consumer price index data is due.

At 1430 CEST, US Gross Domestic Product and jobless claims data are expected, along with the PCE data.

At 2230 CEST, the Fed's weekly balance sheet will be released.

Among Piazza Affari companies, results are expected from Cube Labs, DBA Group, OPS Retail, Otofarma, and Più Medical.

By Maurizio Carta, Alliance News reporter

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