FRANKFURT (dpa-AFX) - Following the agreed ceasefire in the Iran conflict, investor hopes are now pinned on positive outcomes from negotiations between the U.S. and Tehran. Consequently, the German benchmark DAX index could remain on a recovery path in the coming week. However, the global environment for equities remains extremely fragile and continues to be heavily news-driven.

Market interest is now centered on the planned talks between U.S. and Iranian delegations in the Pakistani capital, Islamabad, wrote market analyst Timo Emden of Emden Research. He added: "Investors are hoping for a breakthrough and thus a lasting truce between the warring parties." Markets continue to cling to any signal of de-escalation.

However, uncertainty is likely to remain high, Emden believes. Should the negotiations collapse or fail to produce a resilient ceasefire, many investors could be caught off guard. "Markets are currently not positioned for a renewed escalation," the expert warned.

Asset manager Ortay Gelen of Axia Asset Management advised sobriety: "What we have here is not peace - it is a breathing space. And as of today, it is not even holding up entirely."

According to Gelen, what moves the DAX in the coming week depends on three questions: Is progress being made in the Islamabad negotiations? Is Iran keeping the Strait of Hormuz open? Where will the oil price settle?

The latter is no minor detail for the DAX, the expert continued: "A crude oil price below 90 U.S. dollars would be a clear signal that inflation fears are easing - this would open up room for interest rate cuts and provide structural support for equities." Conversely, if the price climbs back above 100 dollars due to an escalation, the situation will become tight.

In the U.S., inflation already rose significantly in March in light of the Iran conflict. The producer price data due on Tuesday is expected to confirm this trend, suggested Robert Greil, Chief Strategist at private bank Merck Finck. From an investor perspective, another focus lies on China, the world's second-largest economy, where first-quarter economic growth figures will be released on Thursday, alongside March data for industrial production and retail sales.

Furthermore, attention in the coming week turns to the U.S. corporate sector as earnings season kicks off. "Given the still high valuations, positive surprises are a must," wrote analyst Samuel Will of Landesbank Hessen-Thüringen (Helaba).

The focus is primarily on the financial results of banks and financial service providers such as Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Citigroup. While this could trigger price movements for German peers Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank, significant insights into how higher oil prices are affecting companies are not yet to be expected from these reports, Will noted.

Domestically, investors are also looking toward analyst events from automakers Mercedes-Benz on Monday and BMW on Tuesday. The objective is to align current market expectations regarding upcoming quarterly figures with reality./la/edh/he

--- By Lutz Alexander, dpa-AFX ---