At the outset, Agerback notes that defense stocks started October on a weak note following reports of a planned meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin regarding a possible ceasefire in Ukraine. The meeting was subsequently canceled, leading the sector to recover towards the end of the month.
Furthermore, Agerback writes that the market is characterized by high volatility and some correction after previous strong rallies, making diversification across regions and companies particularly important.
In Asia, Taiwan unveiled its T-Dome air defense system and plans to raise its defense budget to 5 percent of GDP by 2030, driven by increasing drone and missile threats.
In Ukraine, the conflict remains at a strategic stalemate, with Russia incurring high costs and depending on drones, while Ukraine continues to require support from the West. In October, Russia tested its nuclear-powered Poseidon torpedo drone, an example of heightened nuclear rhetoric.
The earnings season has been strong. Several defense companies reported results in line with or above expectations, with stable order flows and solid profitability, confirming the sector's structural growth.
Among the fund's holdings, Kongsberg Gruppen reported NOK 13.3 billion in revenue (+12%) and an EBIT margin of 15.2 percent, with an order backlog of NOK 142 billion.
Finally, Agerback reports that Saab grew by 17 percent to SEK 15.9 billion, with an EBIT margin of 8.7 percent and an order backlog of SEK 202 billion. Shortly after the report, a letter of intent was announced between Sweden and Ukraine for 100–150 Gripen E aircraft, which could strengthen Saab's future sales.
"Changing order patterns give Saab an improved position in the Surveillance and Aeronautics markets, reducing the concentration of growth within the Dynamics segment," writes the fund manager.
The largest holdings in the fund's portfolio at the end of the month were Rheinmetall (4.66 percent), Hanwha Aerospace (4.40 percent), and ST Engineering (3.32 percent).
| Finserve Global Security Fund I SEK R, % | October, 2025 |
| Fund MM, change in percent | -1.62 |
| Fund year-to-date, change in percent | 57.09 |
