The premarket screens glowed faint green this Friday morning, with investors still hellbent on optimism. Dow and S&P 500 futures were up, the former enjoying a cheerful 0.6% bounce. The reason is simple: hope. Hope that the Federal Reserve will take a gentle hand to interest rates come September, trimming the cost of money by a quarter percentage point.

Hope, of course, is a dangerous stimulant in markets. It blurs the edge between anticipation and presumption. The labor market is showing signs of fatigue, tariff-related inflation has yet to manifest in headline consumer prices, and so, the street has decided the Fed might just put on its soft shoes.

The true jolt of the morning, however, came not from macro policy, but from one of capitalism’s most enduring and theatrical figures: Warren Buffett. Although no longer serving as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett’s influence clearly endures. The conglomerate disclosed a new stake in UnitedHealth Group, sending the stock surging more than 12% in premarket trading. Michael Burry’s Scion Asset Management—yes, the same Burry immortalized in The Big Short—has also turned bullish on the healthcare giant. The Oracle of Omaha and the Cassandra of the subprime era now share a rare moment of alignment, placing their bets on a blue-chip insurer that’s been battered nearly in half this year.

The endorsement, at least in the short term, was contagious. Elevance and Molina—insurers whose names sound like either wellness spas or space shuttles—were up more than 4%. The healthcare sector, often a defensive refuge in times of uncertainty, suddenly looked positively sprightly. For the S&P 500, it was the best-performing corner of the market this week, a rare bloom in an otherwise cautious August.

Elsewhere, the day's script was less flattering. Applied Materials shed 13% after forecasting a dreary fourth quarter, citing waning Chinese demand. Intel, in contrast, continued its improbable rebound—up another 2%—amid rumors the Trump administration might take a direct stake in the struggling chipmaker. Investors, eyeing the potential for government backing to accelerate the U.S. semiconductor push, cheered the prospect. Yet the shift is striking: for decades, American political orthodoxy painted such interventions as antithetical to free-market capitalism, often dismissing them with the dreaded "S-word" — socialism. Today, in an era of geopolitical tech rivalries and supply chain security concerns, Washington's aversion to industrial policy seems to be giving way to strategic pragmatism.

And then there is geopolitics. Oil prices slipped toward $65 a barrel, with traders' eyes trained on Alaska, where President Trump and Vladimir Putin are scheduled to meet later today. Geopolitical experts are competing with scenarios for this meeting, but no one knows what will really happen between the two leaders. All we know is that, in recent hours, Trump and Putin have expressed their desire to achieve something on Ukraine, but without going beyond the stage of goodwill. 

Meanwhile, another important data arrived Friday morning: July retail sales rose 0.5% month-over-month, just shy of the 0.6% economists had penciled in. The result suggests the American consumer remains willing to spend, though perhaps with a touch more caution than Wall Street had hoped. It's a reminder that momentum is still there, but uneven — the splurges of one ZIP code balanced by the thrift of another. Paired with the upcoming University of Michigan consumer confidence report due later today, the data will help shape the market's narrative.

Today's economic highlights:

On today's agenda: industrial production and retail sales in Switzerland; industrial production in Japan; in the United States, Empire Manufacturing, advanced retail sales, capacity utilization, industrial production, business inventories, and the University of Michigan sentiment. See the full calendar here.

  • Dollar index: 97,882
  • Gold: $3,343
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): $66.52 (WTI) $62.65
  • United States 10 years: 4.26%
  • BITCOIN: US$118,890

In corporate news:

  • Salesforce investor Starboard Value increased its stake to 1.3 million shares as of June 30, up from 849,679 previously.
  • UnitedHealth shares surged over 13% after Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a $1.57 billion stake in the health insurer during Q2.
  • A BlackRock-led consortium signed an $11 billion deal with Saudi Aramco for a 20-year leaseback of Jafurah gas facilities.
  • Accenture announced the acquisition of Australian cybersecurity firm CyberCX, its largest security deal to date, reportedly worth $650 million.
  • Intel shares rose following reports that the U.S. government is considering taking a stake in the company to support its foundry business.
  • Applied Materials shares fell 14% after issuing weak Q4 guidance due to lower China demand and tariff concerns despite beating Q3 earnings expectations.
  • XPeng and Volkswagen expanded their collaboration to integrate XPeng's E/E architecture across Volkswagen's ICE and hybrid platforms in China.
  • Nu Holdings shares jumped over 10% pre-market after Q2 results beat revenue and EPS expectations.
  • Twilio will join the S&P MidCap 400, replacing Amedisys, which was acquired by UnitedHealth.
  • Costco announced it will not sell abortion pill mifepristone in its U.S. pharmacies, citing low demand.
  • Ant Group confirmed its acquisition of Bright Smart Securities is proceeding on schedule despite regulatory scrutiny rumors.
  • Rivian said it faces a $100 million cost impact from relaxed U.S. fuel economy rules under President Trump.
  • Murray International Trust outperformed its benchmark, citing strong gains from Philip Morris International.
  • Ford is recalling nearly 42,000 vehicles in the U.S. due to faulty rearview camera displays.
  • India's Prime Minister Modi vowed to protect farmers and cut taxes amid trade tensions with the U.S., while pushing for greater self-reliance.
  • Tapestry had its price target adjusted by multiple analysts, reflecting mixed sentiment on its valuation.
  • Deere & Company also received various revised price targets, highlighting diverging analyst views amid market volatility.
  • Eli Lilly has significantly raised the price of its obesity drug in the UK by up to 170%, partnered with Superluminal Medicines in a $1.3 billion deal to develop obesity treatments.
  • Cohere AI raised $500 million, reaching a valuation of $6.8 billion and appointed new executives.

Analyst Recommendations:

  • Affirm Holdings, Inc.: Zacks downgrades to neutral from outperform and reduces the target price from USD 89 to USD 82.
  • Amgen Inc.: Daiwa Securities downgrades to outperform from buy and reduces the target price from USD 350 to USD 310.
  • Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc.: Raymond James downgrades to market perform from outperform.
  • Applied Materials, Inc.: CTBC Securities Investment Service Co LTD upgrades to add from neutral and raises the target price from USD 182 to USD
  • 208.
  • Cisco Systems, Inc.: HSBC downgrades to hold from buy and reduces the target price from USD 73 to USD 69.
  • Globant S.a.: JP Morgan downgrades to neutral from overweight and reduces the target price from USD 108 to USD 78.
  • Williams Companies, Inc.: CIBC Capital Markets upgrades to outperform from neutral and raises the target price from USD 61 to USD 64.
  • eBay Inc.: Rothschild & Co Redburn maintains its neutral recommendation and raises the target price from USD 50 to USD 95.
  • GE Aerospace: Bernstein maintains its outperform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 254 to USD 343.
  • Nvidia Corporation: DBS Bank maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 180 to USD 220.
  • Oracle Corporation: Mizuho Securities maintains its outperform rating and raises the target price from USD 245 to USD 300.
  • Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc.: Deutsche Bank maintains its sell recommendation and raises the target price from USD 6 to USD 12.