ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) has lifted force majeure on the
long-delayed Rovuma LNG project in Mozambique, paving the way for
work to resume and pushing the $30bn development significantly
closer to a final investment decision.
The decision follows sustained improvements in security
conditions in Cabo Delgado, where Islamist insurgency forced a
suspension of onshore works in 2021. According to Reuters, regional
forces have reclaimed key districts and stabilised strategic
corridors, enabling operators to re-enter the Afungi site and
restart assessments.
Rovuma LNG, operated by ExxonMobil with partners Eni (NYSE:E;
ENI.MI), TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE; TTE.PA) and CNPC (state-owned,
unlisted), is designed to produce around 15.2mn tonnes per year in
its initial phase. Mozambique regards the project—alongside
TotalEnergies’ adjacent $20bn Area 1 scheme and Eni’s Coral
South/Norte floating LNG units—as central to its ambition to become
a major global gas exporter. Although the projects sit side by side
on the Afungi peninsula, they are being developed through separate
liquefaction trains and facilities.
TotalEnergies in September lifted force majeure on its
Mozambique LNG project, four years after work was halted in March
2021 due to security conditions in Cabo Delgado. In a letter to the
Mozambican government, the French energy major said project costs
had risen by $4.5bn and requested a 10-year extension to the
development and production period.
ExxonMobil said it continues to work closely with the government
and project partners to sequence engineering, procurement and
early-works activity. The consortium is targeting an FID in 2026
and first LNG around 2030, aligning with the revised schedules
emerging across the country’s LNG portfolio.
The force-majeure lift marks a material shift in operator
confidence but does not eliminate risk. Security remains “managed
rather than resolved”, and financing, insurance and cost-inflation
pressures will heavily influence partner decisions.
Rovuma LNG is part of Mozambique’s Area 4 resource cluster,
estimated to contain over 85tcf of natural gas.
Exxon and Eni each hold 25% equity in the block. Exxon leads
onshore LNG development, while Eni leads floating LNG units,
including the Coral South FLNG, commissioned in 2022.
According to a 2024 Deloitte report, the successful full
build-out of the TotalEnergies, ExxonMobil and Eni LNG developments
could position Mozambique among the world’s top 10 LNG exporters by
2040.
In an upside case, an FID in 2025–26 and smooth ramp-up could
see Rovuma LNG running above 90% capacity utilisation by the
mid-2030s, supporting strong cash flows and placing Mozambique on
track for LNG fiscal receipts well above the $1bn per year that
international institutions view as plausible by 2035.
In a base case, timelines slip slightly but remain manageable,
with first LNG in 2030–31 and capacity utilisation in the 80–85%
range, delivering solid but cyclical fiscal gains. A downside
case—marked by renewed violence, delayed partner mobilisation or a
softer global LNG market—could push FID beyond 2028 and first LNG
into the mid-2030s, sharply reducing output levels and compressing
medium-term fiscal benefits.
© 2025 bne IntelliNews, source Magazine
