The study reveals a marked acceleration in seat supply between Q1 and Q2 of 2026 in Europe, a trend largely driven by low-cost carriers (LCCs). This momentum particularly benefits Southern Europe, where Aena, the Spanish airport operator, is showing robust growth fueled by Iberia and Air Europa. In contrast, London Gatwick and certain airports in Central Europe are exhibiting signs of fatigue.

The ADP Case

 ADP recorded a 1.9% y-o-y increase in the number of seats offered by airlines at its Paris airports in Q2. This is a very modest figure, placing it far behind Zurich (+7.4%), Aena (+5.4%), or Frankfurt (+6.2%). In fact, only Munich (-0.2%) and Heathrow (+0.7%) performed worse than Paris, which is therefore far from being the most dynamic in terms of raw capacity growth.

For the Paris airport operator, operational normalization is now the priority. Following a significant capacity adjustment in January, the group is finally enjoying some "breathing room" in terms of capacity for 2026. Supply is notably constrained by major renovation projects scheduled between Q2 and Q4 of 2026.

Regarding the airline mix, easyJet is significantly boosting its offer in the spring, while Transavia is maintaining a very strong pace, with double-digit growth between April and June. Conversely, Air France-KLM is moderately reducing its capacities at the end of the quarter.

In this context, Morgan Stanley maintains its positive view on ADP, favoring the group's visibility and yield discipline compared to other, more volatile, stocks.

According to Morgan Stanley, ADP is not chasing volume growth. The renewed stability of capacities in the second quarter of 2026 supports a more defensive positioning, based on visibility and operational discipline rather than raw expansion.