Europe expected lower as focus shifts to US-Iran truce

(Alliance News) - Major stock indices are expected to open in negative territory on Friday, with the sole exception of Frankfurt, which is seen trading above yesterday's close.

Thursday was marked by high volatility, fueled by geopolitical news that was often contradictory and lacked concrete developments.

Market movements reflected underlying nervousness, yet the broader outlook remains geared toward de-escalation, with both parties committed to reaching an agreement.

The ceasefire between the US and Iran has been extended indefinitely to allow for further negotiations, while Israel and Lebanon have extended their truce by three weeks.

This morning, attention remains focused on geopolitics and key macroeconomic data, including the German Ifo index.

Consequently, the FTSE MIB is called down 0.8% or 365.0 points, after gaining 0.3% on Thursday to finish at 47,907.41.

In Europe, London's FTSE 100 is forecast to open 0.8% lower, Paris's CAC 40 is indicated down 0.9%, while Frankfurt's DAX 40 is expected to edge up 0.1%.

In Milan yesterday evening, the Mid-Cap closed flat at 58,056.25, the Small-Cap shed 0.4% to 35,495.06, while Italy Growth ended marginally lower at 8,840.21.

On the MIB, among the decliners - a minority of the list - DiaSorin dropped 4.2% to EUR59.98, following a 1.3% loss in the previous session.

Moncler also lagged, falling 2.1% to EUR54.82, after a 2.7% depreciation yesterday evening snapped a four-session winning streak.

Buzzi closed down 0.4% at EUR47.76 per share. JPMorgan analysts reiterated their 'overweight' rating on the stock with a price target of EUR58, maintaining a positive view in light of solid fundamentals and a valuation deemed attractive relative to the sector.

In the short term, focus is on the Q1 2026 update, for which the bank expects slightly negative like-for-like revenue dynamics. Based on recent discussions with the company, JPMorgan forecasts 'a 0.4% LFL sales decline to EUR974 million', reflecting volume pressures across several markets.

Eni advanced 1.2% to EUR23.21 per share. Notably, Kepler Cheuvreux raised its target price on the stock to EUR23.50 from EUR15.50 per share.

STMicroelectronics - leading the gainers with a surge of over 14% - announced on Thursday that it closed the first quarter on March 28 with a net profit of USD37 million, down 34% from USD56 million in the same period of 2025. In the fourth quarter of 2025, STM had recorded a loss of USD30 million. Diluted earnings per share fell to USD0.04 compared to USD0.06 in the prior-year quarter.

Net revenues for the quarter amounted to USD3.10 billion, up 23% from USD2.52 billion a year earlier, but down compared to the final quarter of 2025.

Lottomatica gained 2.1% to EUR26.13 per share as it continues its buyback program. It recently announced the purchase of 150,024 treasury shares for a total consideration of EUR4.0 million.

On the mid-cap segment, Reply fell 4.1% following a 0.1% dip in the previous session, after the shareholders' meeting approved a new 18-month buyback program for up to 3.5 million ordinary shares, not exceeding EUR550,000,000.

Comer Industries closed 4.5% lower after a 5.6% gain in the previous session.

BFF Bank showed strength, closing up 3.4% after a 3.1% decline the day before. According to reports from Milano Finanza on Thursday, the institution led by CEO Giuseppe Sica is finalizing a major securitization of up to EUR1.0 billion to address concerns raised by the Bank of Italy last March.

The transaction, which has already drawn interest from specialized funds such as Christofferson, Robb & Company, aims to deconsolidate non-performing loans identified after the central bank's latest inspection. The package would include both the EUR300 million previously planned and EUR800 million in new past-due exposures related to late payment interest.

Alerion, meanwhile, surged over 12%. The company - which has a free float of approximately 10% - has seen its market capitalization increase by more than 33% since the start of 2026.

d'Amico advanced 2.2% to EUR7.65 per share, recovering from a 3.7% contraction the previous day.

On the Small-Cap index, Aeffe shed 4.2% to EUR0.2040, following a 4.4% gain in the prior session.

Geox - down 0.7% - announced on Wednesday that its shareholders' meeting, in addition to approving the financial statements as of December 31, 2025, and a new share buyback plan, resolved to appoint Francesco Di Giovanni to the board of directors. He had been co-opted on July 23, 2025, and will serve until the approval of the 2027 financial statements. Furthermore, the board confirmed him as the company's CEO.

CY4Gate rose 2.5%, marking its fourth consecutive positive session, with the price around EUR8.26 per share.

Piquadro advanced 3.1% to approximately EUR2.64, following a 0.4% decline the day before.

Esprinet appreciated by 0.3%, after a 1.0% gain previously, ending at EUR5.92. According to the MarketScreener platform, based on 4 analysts, the stock has an average target price of EUR6.77.

Among SMEs, Compagnia dei Caraibi rallied over 10%, rebounding from an 8.1% loss in the previous session.

Energy Time closed up 7.4% at EUR5.35 per share, bringing its year-to-date gains to over 52%.

Gismondi 1754 - up 2.9% - reported Q1 results on Wednesday evening, showing revenues of EUR4.6 million compared to EUR3.6 million in Q1 2025, driven by a 28% increase resulting from investments in the US wholesale and Special Sales sectors.

Vantea SMART - down 3.8% - reported results for the year ended December 31, 2025, with a profit of EUR262,000, a 47% decrease from the EUR497,000 reported in 2024. Revenues stood at EUR10.9 million, down 7.2% from EUR11.7 million in the previous twelve months.

Sicily by Car - flat at EUR3.05 - announced its 2025 results on Wednesday evening, reporting a loss of EUR7.2 million compared to a profit of EUR2.9 million in 2024. Production value reached EUR165.1 million, up 15% from EUR144.0 million in 2024, driven by a 9.1% growth in the Italian market and international expansion.

In New York on Thursday evening, the Dow lost 0.4%, the Nasdaq retreated 0.96%, while the S&P 500 fell 0.4%.

In Asia, the Nikkei is up 1.0%, the Hang Seng is rising 0.2%, while the Shanghai Composite is down 0.3%.

On the currency front, the euro is trading at USD1.1681 from USD1.1708 on Thursday evening, while the pound is at USD1.3464 from USD1.3501 yesterday.

Among commodities, Brent crude is trading at USD105.48 per barrel from USD103.19 on Thursday evening, while gold is valued at USD4,683.07 per ounce from USD4,732.00 yesterday.

Friday's economic calendar features the German Ifo business climate index at 1000 CEST.

At 1900 CEST, Baker Hughes data will be released from the US, followed by the COT Report at 2130 CEST, as is customary on Fridays.

On the corporate front, results are expected from BF, Convergenze, CSP International, Impianti, Next Re SIIQ, PPG Industries, and Sogefi.

By Antonio Di Giorgio, Alliance News reporter

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