EMEA Morning Briefing : Central Bank Decisions, U.S. Data in Focus This Week

MARKET WRAPS

Watch For:

EU industrial production; no major corporate trading updates expected

Opening Call:

European stock futures rose early Monday. Asian stock benchmarks fell; the dollar and Treasury yields were little changed; while oil and gold futures advanced.

Equities:

Stock futures point to a higher open in European markets at the start of the week as traders looked ahead to U.S. data on jobs and inflation.

The November jobs report will drop Tuesday and a key inflation reading comes Thursday, with investors looking for reassuring signs following the Federal Reserve's third straight rate cut last week. However, both of this week's economic readings will be based on older data, due to the lingering effects of the U.S. government shutdown, and there is speculation that investors will take them with a grain of salt.

Forex:

Sterling could fall on a potential interest-rate cut by the Bank of England on Thursday and expectations for another cut in the first quarter of 2026, TD Securities said. Beyond the decision, however, sterling should continue to rise against the dollar as risk premia surrounding November's U.K. budget is likely to evaporate over the course of the next few weeks.

Sterling's positioning has room to improve versus the dollar as sentiment towards the U.S. currency weakens. In contrast, sterling could underperform versus the euro on potential progress for a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine.

Bonds:

One outcome unforeseen by most traders at the Fed's meeting last week: the central bank's decision to begin buying Treasury securities again, at a pace of up to $40 billion a month.

"These operations are distinct from QE in several ways," Will Compernolle of FHN Capital noted-the goal is to head off stress in repo markets. The purchases are to concentrate on shorter-term securities.

Energy:

Oil futures rose early Monday amid mixed signals. On the one hand, the U.S. military is moving more weapons and units into the Caribbean that give President Trump powerful new options to escalate his pressure campaign on Venezuela, a major oil exporter.

On the other hand, Trump's top envoys held five hours of talks with Ukrainian President Zelensky in Berlin on Sunday, with Washington hailing progress as the administration steps up pressure on Kyiv to seal a peace deal with Russia by end-2025.

Metals:

Gold continues to benefit from firm expectations of further monetary easing by the Fed, ongoing central-bank buying and broadening geopolitical risks which are sustaining safe-haven flows, said Joseph Dahrieh, managing principal at Tickmill.

The market's focus for this week is likely to be on U.S. data such as the November employment report due out Tuesday and the November CPI data due out Thursday.

-

Copper's ascent is unlikely to be derailed on strong fundamentals, ANZ said. Renewed supply disruptions from a series of mine outages have fueled a rally in base metals this year. Demand also continues to exceed expectations, supported by China's imports for its EV and energy infrastructure sectors, alongside U.S. demand for the AI investment boom, the bank said.

"We are bullish on copper and expect the market to move further into deficit in 2026," ANZ said.

-

Demand for iron ore remains at low levels, weighing on prices, Baocheng Futures said. Global shipments are strong, and supply is high, while inventories are also facing pressure, it added.

TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES

China's Economy Is Deteriorating on Several Fronts

China's economic momentum slowed broadly in November, with a marked weakening in consumer spending, adding pressure on Beijing to stabilize household and business demand in the world's second-largest economy.

The Eerie Parallels Between AI Mania and the Dot-Com Bubble

Is it karma? Coincidence? Either way, the ghost of the dot-com bubble is back 25 years later.

Shares in Cisco Systems, the dot-com-era champion that became the world's most valuable company at its peak in March 2000, this week reached that level again for the first time. It's a cautionary tale of how far stock prices can depart from reality.

Why Germany Wants a Divorce With China

FRANKFURT-For two decades, Germany and China were an economic couple made in heaven, both benefiting handsomely from booming global trade: Germany supplied the machines China needed to make consumer goods for the rest of the world.

Now China no longer needs Germany-and Germany wants a divorce.

Crypto's Biggest Players Troop to Abu Dhabi, Looking for a Financial Boost

ABU DHABI-The word went out among those gathered for the crypto conference: The Big Money guys were here. Representatives from a $330 billion United Arab Emirates sovereign-wealth fund were said to be circulating-if only they could be found.

Many of crypto's biggest players trooped to Abu Dhabi last week, hoping to secure deals with deep-pocketed Emirati investors who could inject fresh vigor into the industry following two months in the doldrums.

SpaceX Starts a Wall Street Bake-Off to Hire Banks for Possible IPO

SpaceX executives are starting the process to select Wall Street bankers to advise it on its initial public offering, according to people familiar with the matter.

Investment banks are scheduled to make their initial pitches this coming week in what is known as a bake-off, according to people familiar with the matter, representing the most concrete steps the rocket maker has taken toward what would be a blockbuster IPO.

OpenAI Ends 'Vesting Cliff' for New Employees in Compensation-Policy Change

OpenAI told staff this past week that it was ending a compensation policy that required employees to work at the company for at least six months before their equity vests.

The change to the "vesting cliff," announced by applications chief Fidji Simo, is designed to encourage new employees to take risks without fear of being let go before accessing their first chunk of equity, according to people familiar with the matter.

Write to [e-mail]

Expected Major Events for Monday

00:01/UK: Dec Rightmove House Price Index

06:00/FIN: Nov CPI

07:00/GER: Nov WPI

07:00/ROM: Oct Industrial production

07:00/ROM: 3Q Employment and unemployment

07:00/NOR: Nov External trade in goods

07:30/SWI: Nov Import Price Index

07:30/SWI: Nov PPI

08:00/SVK: Nov CPI

08:00/SVK: Nov Core & net inflation development

09:00/CZE: Oct Monthly Balance of Payments

09:00/POL: Nov CPI

09:00/POL: Oct Merchandise trade

09:00/BUL: Nov CPI

09:30/UK: S&P Global UK Consumer Sentiment Index

10:00/EU: Oct Industrial Production

11:00/FRA: 3Q OECD Quarterly National Accounts G20 GDP growth

13:00/POL: Oct Balance of Payments

15:59/UKR: Oct Trade

All times in GMT. Powered by Onclusive and Dow Jones.

Write to us at [e-mail]

We offer an enhanced version of this briefing that is optimized for viewing on mobile devices and sent directly to your email inbox. If you would like to sign up, please go to https://newsplus.wsj.com/subscriptions.

This article is a text version of a Wall Street Journal newsletter published earlier today.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

12-15-25 0026ET