By Anthony Harrup


The U.S. Energy Information Administration said Tuesday it expects global oil consumption to fall this year as a result of higher prices, lower fuel supply and government measures to curb demand.

In its Short Term Energy Outlook, the EIA sees global demand falling by 1.1 million barrels a day on average to 102.9 million barrels a day, with most of the reduction in Asia. The agency had predicted a 200,000 increase in global demand in its previous monthly outlook.

The EIA said it expects a rebound in consumption to 105.3 million barrels a day in 2027 "following a return of supply flows later in 2026."

The EIA kept its Brent spot price estimate for all of 2026 around $95 a barrel, including an average of $105 a barrel in June and July on the assumption that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to most shipping traffic in the near term, further depleting inventories.

"Once flows through the Strait of Hormuz incrementally resume allowing producers to gradually restore shut-in production, we expect prices to fall to an average of $79 a barrel in 2027," the agency said. The EIA estimates U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude to average $88 a barrel this year and $74 a barrel in 2027.

The EIA estimates global oil stocks will decline by 6.3 million barrels a day in the second quarter of this year and by 7.6 million barrels a day in the third quarter, with liquid fuels inventories in the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development falling to just under 2.3 billion barrels in December, their lowest level in data back to 2003.

The agency sees inventories starting to rebuild in early 2027 when it expects most shut-in oil production will be fully restored.


Write to Anthony Harrup at anthony.harrup@wsj.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

06-09-26 1322ET