Bitcoin opened September under pressure, hitting fresh multi-week lows as gold surged toward record territory — reviving the old rivalry between “digital” and “traditional” safe-havens. Layered on top of Bitcoin’s historically weak September performance, this adds tension to the current market and raises questions about the staying power of the bull run.
Gold takes the lead
Gold gained 3% since Monday to hit $3,538 per ounce, setting a new all-time high. Bitcoin rose 3.9% in the same period to $111,450 but remains 10% below its peak.
The gold rally comes amid rising macro uncertainty and last week’s hotter-than-expected PCE inflation data, which may be fueling renewed demand for traditional hedges.
For Europac’s Peter Schiff, a long-time Bitcoin critic, the breakout in gold and silver is “very bearish for Bitcoin,” which is “poised to go much lower.” The logic is straightforward: when gold and silver outperform amid monetary or geopolitical stress, investors often prefer these traditional hedges over riskier assets like Bitcoin. Such a rotation can dent Bitcoin’s “digital gold” narrative.
Yet correlation data adds a necessary nuance to the story. Glassnode data shows that the annual gold-Bitcoin correlation has been holding between 0.67 and 0.92 since 2023, indicating a broadly positive relationship despite short-term divergences. On shorter time frames, correlation swings from strongly negative (-0.8) to strongly positive (0.9), suggesting it may be premature to dismiss Bitcoin’s store-of-value role altogether.
History supports this: when gold last hit an all-time high on April 22, Bitcoin jumped 6.7%, recovering sharply from sub-$75,000 lows. BTC’s 3.9% rise since Monday hints that the recent negative correlation could revert over time, too.
Red September for Bitcoin?
Still, Bitcoin’s current price weakness is starting to take its toll on investment habits. After strong inflows between April and July, spot BTC ETFs posted two weeks of heavy outflows in August, totaling $750 million, according to Coinglass. Even if this Tuesday brought some relief with $333 million in fresh inflows, the sentiment remains fragile.
Seasonal trends add to the caution. September has historically been gold’s second-strongest month over the past 50 years, yet for Bitcoin it has been the worst, with average returns of -3.5% since 2013. Even the best September on record delivered only 7.3% gains.
“Seasonality is a real thing,” noted the economist Timothy Peterson. “Bitcoin has followed seasonality for 15 years; equity markets, for over a century. It repeats because things like the tax year, school calendar, and agricultural cycles are fixed.”
With Bitcoin now down 6.5% in August — its fourth consecutive “red” August — the risk of more near-term downside looms. Glassnode data shows only 9% of BTC supply is in loss at $110,000, versus over 25% at the last cycle low, suggesting the current drawdown remains shallow compared to past bear markets.
One final bearish signal: exchange reserves just hit a multi-month high of 3.383 million BTC. Rising exchange balances often precede higher selling pressure, as traders move coins out of cold storage and onto trading platforms.
Whether this marks a brief seasonal setback or a deeper shift in risk appetite will likely depend on macro data, Fed policy, and whether Bitcoin can reclaim the safe-haven status it enjoyed earlier this year.
