FRANKFURT (dpa-AFX) - The generally resilient sentiment across international equity markets could continue to support the Dax in the coming week. Investors remain of the view that a peace settlement in the Iran conflict is more likely than a further escalation.

However, the current ceasefire remains fragile, and any intensification of the situation could cloud the outlook for a swift reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Should Iran effectively block this vital artery for global trade on a permanent basis, oil prices would likely spike again, reigniting inflation fears. Such a scenario would weigh heavily on the German benchmark index.

Currently, the upward momentum from Whit Monday is still providing technical tailwinds for the German stock market, according to asset manager Ortay Gelen of Axia Asset Management. Should diplomatic signals from the Middle East materialize and oil prices remain stable, the record high of nearly 25,508 points reached in mid-January could face a serious challenge - which in turn could trigger follow-up buying.

Nevertheless, the situation remains precarious, Gelen continued: 'The resistance zone between 25,400 points and the record high is historically significant - if the Dax fails here again, profit-taking is inevitable.' An unexpected setback in Middle East negotiations could also cause sentiment to sour rapidly.

For the time being, however, the Iran conflict may fade slightly into the background for the equity markets, wrote analyst Claudia Windt of Landesbank Hessen-Thüringen (Helaba). Other themes are gradually reclaiming the spotlight. In the coming week, key economic indicators are due for release in both the US and the Eurozone. According to Windt, Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) surveys and the monthly labor market report will provide clarity on the economic situation in the United States.

In the Eurozone and Germany, Helaba notes that PMIs will also be in focus. Unlike in the US, these are expected to remain below the 50-point expansion threshold.

Experts at DZ Bank also maintain a fundamentally positive outlook: 'The Dax is showing strength and is approaching its all-time high, driven by a powerful AI boom and falling oil prices.' This remarkable development suggests that global megatrends such as Artificial Intelligence could currently overcompensate for domestic economic weakness.

The additional relief provided by lower oil prices is creating further positive momentum and improving earnings prospects, according to DZ Bank. For the near future, the decisive factor will be whether companies can actually meet ambitious profit targets and whether global conditions remain stable.

Fresh data for assessing the current business climate is scarce on next week's agenda, as the first-quarter reporting season has effectively drawn to a close. Many companies are now inviting shareholders to their annual general meetings. For investors, this means that the respective shares may trade ex-dividend on the day following these meetings.

On Wednesday after the market close, ISS Stoxx, a subsidiary of Deutsche Börse, will announce changes to the Dax family of indices. According to expert Pankaj Gupta of the US bank JPMorgan, shares of the construction group Hochtief are poised for promotion to the blue-chip index following a strong rally in recent months. The specialist sees airline Lufthansa as a second candidate. Potential candidates for demotion include the online retailer Zalando and the VW holding company Porsche SE./la/jsl/he

--- By Lutz Alexander, dpa-AFX ---