FRANKFURT (dpa-AFX) - The generally resilient sentiment across international equity markets could continue to support the Dax in the coming week. Investors remain of the view that a peace settlement in the Iran conflict is more likely than a further escalation.

However, the current ceasefire remains fragile, and any intensification of the situation could cloud the outlook for a swift reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Should Iran effectively block this vital artery for global trade on a permanent basis, oil prices would likely surge again, reigniting inflationary concerns. Such a scenario would weigh heavily on the German benchmark index.

Currently, the upward momentum from Whit Monday is providing the German stock market with technical tailwinds, according to asset manager Ortay Gelen of Axia Asset Management. Should diplomatic signals from the Middle East materialize and oil prices remain stable, the record high of nearly 25,508 points reached in mid-January could face a serious challenge - which in turn could trigger follow-through buying.

Nevertheless, the situation remains delicate, Gelen continued: 'The resistance zone between 25,400 points and the record high is historically significant - if the Dax fails here again, profit-taking is inevitable.' An unexpected setback in Middle East negotiations could also cause sentiment to sour rapidly.

For the time being, however, the Iran conflict may fade slightly into the background for the equity markets, wrote analyst Claudia Windt of Landesbank Hessen-Thüringen (Helaba). Other themes are gradually returning to the fore. In the coming week, key economic indicators are due for release in both the US and the Eurozone. For the United States, Windt noted that Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) surveys and the monthly labor market report will provide insight into the economic climate.

In the Eurozone and Germany, Helaba also expects the focus to be on PMIs. Unlike in the US, these are likely to remain below the expansion threshold of 50 points.

Experts at DZ Bank also maintain a fundamentally positive outlook: 'The Dax is showing strength and is approaching its all-time high, driven by a powerful AI boom and falling oil prices.' This remarkable development suggests that global megatrends such as Artificial Intelligence could currently overcompensate for domestic economic weakness.

The additional relief provided by lower oil prices is creating further positive momentum and improving earnings prospects, according to DZ Bank. In the near future, the decisive factor will be whether companies actually meet their ambitious profit targets and whether the global framework remains stable.

Fresh data for assessing the current business climate is scarce on the agenda for the coming week, as the first-quarter reporting season has effectively concluded. Many companies are now inviting shareholders to their annual general meetings. For investors, this means that the respective shares may trade with a dividend markdown the day after the shareholder meetings.

On Wednesday after the market close, ISS Stoxx, a subsidiary of Deutsche Börse, will announce changes to the Dax family of indices. According to expert Pankaj Gupta of the US bank JPMorgan, shares of the construction group Hochtief are poised for promotion to the benchmark index following a strong rally in recent months. The specialist sees Lufthansa as a second candidate. He named the online retailer Zalando and the VW holding company Porsche SE as candidates for demotion./la/jsl/he

--- By Lutz Alexander, dpa-AFX ---