Crédit Agricole lying in wait in the jungle of bank mergers in Italy

While Rome is delaying the sale of its remaining shares in Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS), Crédit Agricole is forging its position as a strategic player in the Italian banking landscape.

The French group, Banco BPM's largest shareholder with a 20.1% stake, has consolidated its position with the backing of the Italian government in order to counter UniCredit's takeover ambitions. At the same time, BPM remains a key commercial partner of Crédit Agricole, particularly in the distribution of financial products. While a merger between both these banks remains complex to structure, the mutualist group is actively working on its Italian operations, in conjunction with local authorities.

Meanwhile, Giorgia Meloni's government is still pursuing another avenue: a merger between MPS and Banco BPM. The recent integration of Mediobanca into MPS has certainly diluted the public stake, but has not put an end to Rome's desire to orchestrate domestic consolidation. The Italian Treasury, which still holds 4.9% of MPS after reducing its stake since the 2017 bailout, is waiting for the merger with Mediobanca to be digested before restarting discussions with BPM, its "natural" partner.

For the time being, the Italian government cannot openly oppose a merger between BPM and Crédit Agricole, despite its stated preference for a domestic solution. However, it does have "golden powers" to regulate transactions involving strategic assets such as banks. Meanwhile, MPS CEO Luigi Lovaglio is banking on a new cycle of concentration in the coming years, while strengthening ties in the short term with Anima, the asset management company owned by BPM and rival of Amundi, a subsidiary of... Crédit Agricole.

Italy has a record number of listed banks 

Italy has many listed banks, despite the concentration that began several years ago. Behind the two giants Intesa and UniCredit (each with a market capitalization of €100bn), there are several players worth between €13bn and €37bn: Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena, BPER Banca, Banco BPM, Mediobanca, Banca Mediolanum, and FinecoBank. Behind them, ten listed institutions have market capitalizations of between €1bn and €7.5bn, including Banca Popolare di Sondrio, Banca Generali, and Credito Emiliano. In total, Italy has over 20 listed banking or related companies. In comparison, France has three large listed institutions (BNP Paribas, Société Générale and Crédit Agricole), plus a dozen regional banks linked to Crédit Agricole.