By Paulo Trevisani
-- Corn for March delivery rose 1.8% to $4.45 1/4 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade on Wednesday as ethanol production increased and stocks fell.
-- Soybeans for January delivery rose 0.7% to $11.31 1/2 a bushel.
-- Wheat for March delivery rose 0.3% to $5.40 1/2 a bushel.
HIGHLIGHTS
Corn Fuel: Corn lead a broad rally in grain futures ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday. Early support came from managed funds that "had sold more corn than expected in mid-October," RCM's Doug Bergman wrote, citing a CFTC report. He said that "there is still a strong belief that the USDA's current production forecast is overstated by a large amount." Bergman said producers "can use the current correction/pullback from last week's highs as an opportunity to re-establish upside on previously sold bushels." The Energy Information Administration said average U.S. ethanol production for the week ended Nov. 21 was 1.11 million barrels a day, up from 1.09 million the week before. Inventories decreased to 21.97 million barrels from 22.31 million barrels.
Watching Talks: Grain traders watched U.S.-China talks and attempts to end the war in Ukraine. AgResource said China purchased "at least 12 cargoes" of U.S. soybeans Tuesday, "with only a modest bullish impact on futures." The Black Sea was also in focus as, "a lot hinges on this upcoming agreement with Ukraine/Russia to stop the war," Total Farm Marketing's Naomi Blohm wrote. She is worried that an escalation in the conflict might lead to higher freight rates.
INSIGHT
Bulls Face Uncertainty: Grain futures struck a bullish tone before closing for Thanksgiving, but uncertainty may be a headwind going forward. "Traders question whether the full impact of the recent concern over biofuel policy has been factored in by now," Allendale's Rich Nelson said. "Strong exports are overriding concerns over weekly ethanol production for corn." Traders are waiting for confirmation on China purchases of U.S. soybeans. Grain markets will close Thursday and reopen Friday.
Wheat Supply: Futures pared early gains as traders watched the Trump administration's efforts to try and end the war between Russia and Ukraine. There were concerns about global supplies heading into 2026. AgResource said in a note the 2026 Russian wheat crop is estimated at between 86 million and 91 million metric tons, thanks to favorable weather. This year's Russian all wheat crop was estimated at 88.5 million tons, the firm said. That would allow Russia to export as much as 47 million tons of wheat. AgResource added that European winter wheat crop "is also off to a good start."
AHEAD
-- The USDA is due to release a weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. EST Friday.
Write to Paulo Trevisani at paulo.trevisani@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
11-26-25 1519ET
